The scary reality is that basically every Presidential election boils down to that fundamental. We're testing that theory to the absolute limit with this year's opposition party candidate, but I'm beginning to think that absolutely anybody could win if they were nominated against an incumbent party when more than half the country thinks they're worse off than they were four years ago.
The scary reality is that basically every Presidential election boils down to that fundamental. We're testing that theory to the absolute limit with this year's opposition party candidate, but I'm beginning to think that absolutely anybody could win if they were nominated against an incumbent party when more than half the country thinks they're worse off than they were four years ago.
The majority of Americans thought we were on the "wrong track" in 2012. It didn't result in Mitt Romney becoming President. All those "it's 1980 all over again" predictions went out the window. Also I believe Gallup stopped polling after 2012 because they botched that election badly.
Do you know the "worse than four years ago" number from 2012? And how it compared to the "better than...." number? I should clarify my comment to say that any double-digit spread between "worse" and "better" numbers is the danger zone rather than generically "above 50%".
The scary reality is that basically every Presidential election boils down to that fundamental. We're testing that theory to the absolute limit with this year's opposition party candidate, but I'm beginning to think that absolutely anybody could win if they were nominated against an incumbent party when more than half the country thinks they're worse off than they were four years ago.
The majority of Americans thought we were on the "wrong track" in 2012. It didn't result in Mitt Romney becoming President. All those "it's 1980 all over again" predictions went out the window. Also I believe Gallup stopped polling after 2012 because they botched that election badly.
Do you know the "worse than four years ago" number from 2012? And how it compared to the "better than...." number? I should clarify my comment to say that any double-digit spread between "worse" and "better" numbers is the danger zone rather than generically "above 50%".
https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/TGBCMS/hobqwcnhcuohd8gvv29fjq.png
That the тАЬbetter offтАЭ figure was 56% in 2020 beggars belief and makes me question the efficacy of the poll in general