There is one congressional race there that might be somewhat competitive in a non presidential year; there's really nothing to see here on the federal level(I know nothing of the state\local races but I have to believe that the Democrats are in decent enough shape)
On a bad night I could see a loss in NM-02 but it's probably at least Lean D at this point with the rematch and Harris probably at least narrowly winning there.
To me New Mexico is the dog that isn't barking about a Latino GOP shift this year. Biden won by a little less than 9 in 2020. If there were really a big red shift among Hispanics, the presidential and Senate races would probably be at least fringe competitive, and Vasquez likely toast after winning by less than 1 in 2022. Instead he seems to be comfortably ahead, and otherwise there isn't a peep out of the state.
NM early vote
democratic firewall is growing, both in number and in percentage
10/15 total early votes 50,109 dem firewall 4,908 (10%)
10/16 total early votes 69,937 dem firewall 9,280 (13%)
10/17 total early votes 87,798 dem firewall 13,521 (15%)
10/18 total early votes 104,811 dem firewall 17,191 (16%)
I've never heard of the firewall in NM. What's the number we need there??
There is one congressional race there that might be somewhat competitive in a non presidential year; there's really nothing to see here on the federal level(I know nothing of the state\local races but I have to believe that the Democrats are in decent enough shape)
On a bad night I could see a loss in NM-02 but it's probably at least Lean D at this point with the rematch and Harris probably at least narrowly winning there.
Agreed; Larry Sabato has it Lean D
To me New Mexico is the dog that isn't barking about a Latino GOP shift this year. Biden won by a little less than 9 in 2020. If there were really a big red shift among Hispanics, the presidential and Senate races would probably be at least fringe competitive, and Vasquez likely toast after winning by less than 1 in 2022. Instead he seems to be comfortably ahead, and otherwise there isn't a peep out of the state.