Trump's "hard ceiling" of 47% is an article of faith, leaning far too heavily into past performance and ignoring the significant coalitional dynamism that's been playing out in the last decade.
Trump's "hard ceiling" of 47% is an article of faith, leaning far too heavily into past performance and ignoring the significant coalitional dynamism that's been playing out in the last decade.
I usually think of floors and ceilings in terms of absolute numbers of voters, not shares of the electorate. If turnout collapses for one party, the other party can break through its supposed ceiling of the vote share even if its own turnout isn't that special.
ThatтАЩs a fair point, but I donтАЩt believe for a second that the majority of AmericanтАЩs support him. As sacman701 states below, him getting a higher percentage than that is heavily dependent on turnout collapsing on the Democratic side. IтАЩll concede that the 47% ceiling is based on slim to limited evidence, but that compares pretty well to the complete lack of evidence that he has majority support.
what makes it a poor argument, too, is easy: 47% of what electorate? If GOP turnout craters heтАЩs not getting 47. If D turnout craters he probably beats that number. ItтАЩs entirely relative
Trump's "hard ceiling" of 47% is an article of faith, leaning far too heavily into past performance and ignoring the significant coalitional dynamism that's been playing out in the last decade.
I usually think of floors and ceilings in terms of absolute numbers of voters, not shares of the electorate. If turnout collapses for one party, the other party can break through its supposed ceiling of the vote share even if its own turnout isn't that special.
ThatтАЩs a fair point, but I donтАЩt believe for a second that the majority of AmericanтАЩs support him. As sacman701 states below, him getting a higher percentage than that is heavily dependent on turnout collapsing on the Democratic side. IтАЩll concede that the 47% ceiling is based on slim to limited evidence, but that compares pretty well to the complete lack of evidence that he has majority support.
what makes it a poor argument, too, is easy: 47% of what electorate? If GOP turnout craters heтАЩs not getting 47. If D turnout craters he probably beats that number. ItтАЩs entirely relative