Good catch. Of course self-reported party ID is fluid, but nothing has happened over the last 4 years that would cause a big shift toward the GOP. The ABC exit poll for the 2022 midterm showed an R+3 electorate. This cycle, we have pundit ratings and campaigns' spending patterns both suggesting an environment much closer to 2020 (when ex…
Good catch. Of course self-reported party ID is fluid, but nothing has happened over the last 4 years that would cause a big shift toward the GOP. The ABC exit poll for the 2022 midterm showed an R+3 electorate. This cycle, we have pundit ratings and campaigns' spending patterns both suggesting an environment much closer to 2020 (when exit polls showed a D+1 electorate) than to 2022. At worst, I would expect an R+1 electorate, and my best guess would be dead even but with Dems doing slightly better among indies than in the past because young voters tend to register indie.
Good catch. Of course self-reported party ID is fluid, but nothing has happened over the last 4 years that would cause a big shift toward the GOP. The ABC exit poll for the 2022 midterm showed an R+3 electorate. This cycle, we have pundit ratings and campaigns' spending patterns both suggesting an environment much closer to 2020 (when exit polls showed a D+1 electorate) than to 2022. At worst, I would expect an R+1 electorate, and my best guess would be dead even but with Dems doing slightly better among indies than in the past because young voters tend to register indie.