It could be that pollsters are now getting actual voting data from early/mail in voting and its showing an R leaning year.
I often think - I basically live in a bubble with very little true interaction with how a good chunk of the country thinks.
But it could very well be that at the end of the day - the price of milk and rent and gas is just too high for the infrequent voter to ignore. Or that alot of the country is just too racist and misogynist. Or just too anti-California liberal - maybe those "Kamala saying in her own words how proud she is that she approved money for murderers to get trans surgery" ads are working.
Or that the softness in enthusiasm among infrequent Dem voters that we saw clearly when Biden was the candidate never really went away and now that the Harris announcement/Walz announcement/DNC/debate bounces have receded, we are in not so great shape.
Or just enough of all of the above for Trump to win. We will have to see.
All I can say is - if Trump wins and the GOP takes the house and senate it will prove that basically nothing matters in national politics but vibes. Not fundraising or organization or candidate quality or even ideology.
That's exactly how Glenn Youngkin got elected Governor here in Virginia. He managed to get father of five Terry McAuliffe perceived as "anti parent" and exit polls indicated that voters thought Youngkin, not McAuliffe was the "moderate." Not to mention the hard feelings that McAuliffe even ran in the race to begin with - Virginia is the one state in the USA where Governors are not permitted to serve consecutive terms - NEVER went away. Many "progressives" and African American voters wanted an African American nominee for Governor because "our turn" and felt that McAuliffe's run violated the "spirit of the law" I described above. I knew McAuliffe was in trouble when he let Youngkin beat him to the punch about repealing the grocery tax (Virginia is a VERY anti tax state) and when there were Democrats claiming that the law I described above meant that Governors could only serve one term. In short, vibes absolutely matter and we do ourselves no favors by pretending otherwise.
I would say perceived ideology matters. Not actual ideology. Reagan was VERY right wing but because he looked good on television, he wasn't seen as such.
He can switch on almost anything *that isn't what his voters actually care most about,* which is bigotry in support of a rigorously enforced social order. They're extremely ideological - they just don't actually care very much about traditionally Republican-coded policies of low taxes and pro-business policies. They care about people behaving the "correct way" and obeying their given place in the hierarchy.
Of course, because that's exactly who Trump is at his core, he won't be switching.
It could be that pollsters are now getting actual voting data from early/mail in voting and its showing an R leaning year.
I often think - I basically live in a bubble with very little true interaction with how a good chunk of the country thinks.
But it could very well be that at the end of the day - the price of milk and rent and gas is just too high for the infrequent voter to ignore. Or that alot of the country is just too racist and misogynist. Or just too anti-California liberal - maybe those "Kamala saying in her own words how proud she is that she approved money for murderers to get trans surgery" ads are working.
Or that the softness in enthusiasm among infrequent Dem voters that we saw clearly when Biden was the candidate never really went away and now that the Harris announcement/Walz announcement/DNC/debate bounces have receded, we are in not so great shape.
Or just enough of all of the above for Trump to win. We will have to see.
All I can say is - if Trump wins and the GOP takes the house and senate it will prove that basically nothing matters in national politics but vibes. Not fundraising or organization or candidate quality or even ideology.
What matters is information ecosystems. Which create vibes.
That's exactly how Glenn Youngkin got elected Governor here in Virginia. He managed to get father of five Terry McAuliffe perceived as "anti parent" and exit polls indicated that voters thought Youngkin, not McAuliffe was the "moderate." Not to mention the hard feelings that McAuliffe even ran in the race to begin with - Virginia is the one state in the USA where Governors are not permitted to serve consecutive terms - NEVER went away. Many "progressives" and African American voters wanted an African American nominee for Governor because "our turn" and felt that McAuliffe's run violated the "spirit of the law" I described above. I knew McAuliffe was in trouble when he let Youngkin beat him to the punch about repealing the grocery tax (Virginia is a VERY anti tax state) and when there were Democrats claiming that the law I described above meant that Governors could only serve one term. In short, vibes absolutely matter and we do ourselves no favors by pretending otherwise.
I would say perceived ideology matters. Not actual ideology. Reagan was VERY right wing but because he looked good on television, he wasn't seen as such.
Trump is almost anti-ideological, and if he switches on almost anything his voters will come along with him.
If he switched on choice, they wouldn't. The Republican Party remains hardline socially conservative.
He can switch on almost anything *that isn't what his voters actually care most about,* which is bigotry in support of a rigorously enforced social order. They're extremely ideological - they just don't actually care very much about traditionally Republican-coded policies of low taxes and pro-business policies. They care about people behaving the "correct way" and obeying their given place in the hierarchy.
Of course, because that's exactly who Trump is at his core, he won't be switching.