Most of the polls results seem to be based on modeling the electorate, and I’m glad they’re publishing their numbers no matter what they are. Modeling an electorate in this era is difficult.
I agree that an R+3 electorate seems… unlikely, as of right now. Maybe I’m wrong! But that Emerson example you give seems to show that all that slide…
Most of the polls results seem to be based on modeling the electorate, and I’m glad they’re publishing their numbers no matter what they are. Modeling an electorate in this era is difficult.
I agree that an R+3 electorate seems… unlikely, as of right now. Maybe I’m wrong! But that Emerson example you give seems to show that all that slide is almost 1-1 correlated with their assumed electorate model and that leads me to my prior that the race remains static and narrow, as it has more or less since Labor Day
Most of the polls results seem to be based on modeling the electorate, and I’m glad they’re publishing their numbers no matter what they are. Modeling an electorate in this era is difficult.
I agree that an R+3 electorate seems… unlikely, as of right now. Maybe I’m wrong! But that Emerson example you give seems to show that all that slide is almost 1-1 correlated with their assumed electorate model and that leads me to my prior that the race remains static and narrow, as it has more or less since Labor Day