There may well be something going on, such as some Republicans "returning home". And I share your impression that Fox commissions high-quality polls. But if you look at the makeup of the recent wave of swing-state polls, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that much of the narrative is manufactured.
There may well be something going on, such as some Republicans "returning home". And I share your impression that Fox commissions high-quality polls. But if you look at the makeup of the recent wave of swing-state polls, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that much of the narrative is manufactured.
It’s worth noting that bad pollsters did exactly the same in 2022, creating the illusion of a "Red Wave" that never materialized. In fact, a chorus of pundits were mocking Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, Michael McDonald, Jennifer Rubin and a few others that were insisting: "There may be a Red Wave coming, but so far we see no signs of that."
Nate Silver went so far as to accuse Simon Rosenberg of "Smoking Hopium!" That’s how the Hopium Chronicles were born. :)
There may well be something going on, such as some Republicans "returning home". And I share your impression that Fox commissions high-quality polls. But if you look at the makeup of the recent wave of swing-state polls, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that much of the narrative is manufactured.
It’s worth noting that bad pollsters did exactly the same in 2022, creating the illusion of a "Red Wave" that never materialized. In fact, a chorus of pundits were mocking Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, Michael McDonald, Jennifer Rubin and a few others that were insisting: "There may be a Red Wave coming, but so far we see no signs of that."
Nate Silver went so far as to accuse Simon Rosenberg of "Smoking Hopium!" That’s how the Hopium Chronicles were born. :)
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/