The oddest thing about it is they’re modeling these Republican leaning electorates while simultaneously showing Democratic enthusiasm to be fairly high.
The oddest thing about it is they’re modeling these Republican leaning electorates while simultaneously showing Democratic enthusiasm to be fairly high.
I wonder if it's just that they didn't change their models after Biden left the race? Which, I can't totally blame them if that's the case. Like, if you think people didn't like Biden because they were unhappy about the economy and other issues, then you should keep your models favoring a conservative electorate. But if it was just a lack of enthusiasm that has flipped, you'll get the wrong electorate. It sure doesn't seem like Dems are suffering from a lack of enthusiasm.
I like the idea. Nice thought. Here's another variation: what if they changed them, but changed them during the sugar high of the replacement/DNC when response bias was favoring Ds, so they had to deflate the D share a bit? Would produce similar results.
The oddest thing about it is they’re modeling these Republican leaning electorates while simultaneously showing Democratic enthusiasm to be fairly high.
I wonder if it's just that they didn't change their models after Biden left the race? Which, I can't totally blame them if that's the case. Like, if you think people didn't like Biden because they were unhappy about the economy and other issues, then you should keep your models favoring a conservative electorate. But if it was just a lack of enthusiasm that has flipped, you'll get the wrong electorate. It sure doesn't seem like Dems are suffering from a lack of enthusiasm.
That’s actually not a terrible theory
I like the idea. Nice thought. Here's another variation: what if they changed them, but changed them during the sugar high of the replacement/DNC when response bias was favoring Ds, so they had to deflate the D share a bit? Would produce similar results.