That's not actually that great of a gender gap for Georgia. In 2020 it was 56% women overall, with Election Day voters always being heavily Republican (and male)
Honest answer is idk. A lot of older constant voters voting. The only thing I can say is, the already voted pool is a bit red.
Also baked in the fact that over 200k mail votes are still outstanding. Mostly delayed several days from the center counties. So if they returned, would be quite blue there.
A chunk of Eday voters already voted.
And a lot of people who were even in Georgia in 2020 are expected to vote as well (they are currently underrepresented in the already voted pool). No one knows who will turn out in the next couple of weeks.
Tom Bonier’s TargetSmart has posted his "Modeled Party" analysis of Georgia’s Early Vote, which shows Democrats and Republicans running neck-in-neck. (I understand Bonier’s model is controversial. The data in his analysis currently has about a one-day lag.)
GEORGIA EARLY VOTE:
In-Person:
– 312,260 on Tuesday
– 276,667 on Wednesday
– 255,329 yesterday
Mail Ballots ("Absentee")
– 50,140 accepted (of 50,510 returned)
– 284,519 requested
TOTAL EARLY VOTE:
– 902,517
– 12.6% of registered Georgians have already voted.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
.
UPDATE 2:30pm: 184,181 more Georgians have voted in-person today.
UPDATE 3:30pm: 216,184 more Georgians have voted in-person today.
UPDATE 4:30pm: 247,407 more Georgians have voted in-person today.
UPDATE 5:30pm: 270,424 more Georgians have voted in-person today.
UPDATE 6:30pm: 279,496 more Georgians have voted in-person today.
Nothing on party breakdown?
GA does not have party registration.
You have to go into the demographics in Georgia(the state SOS does a great job with the breakdown)
Women account for 54.4% of the Early Vote so far. That’s a massive gender gap!
Georgia’s Election Data Hub, also has breakdowns by age and ethnicity, as well as by county. McDonald’s also has this, at the link below.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/
Georgia does not report party registration.
That's not actually that great of a gender gap for Georgia. In 2020 it was 56% women overall, with Election Day voters always being heavily Republican (and male)
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia
Don’t count on that.
A lot of Rs are voting early. If anything, the already voted pool is exurban and rural heavy. might be slightly pink.
The still outstanding mail votes are very blue though, if they come in.
If anything, the Election Day votes won’t be super red.
Is GA gone from Harris?
Honest answer is idk. A lot of older constant voters voting. The only thing I can say is, the already voted pool is a bit red.
Also baked in the fact that over 200k mail votes are still outstanding. Mostly delayed several days from the center counties. So if they returned, would be quite blue there.
A chunk of Eday voters already voted.
And a lot of people who were even in Georgia in 2020 are expected to vote as well (they are currently underrepresented in the already voted pool). No one knows who will turn out in the next couple of weeks.
Tom Bonier’s TargetSmart has posted his "Modeled Party" analysis of Georgia’s Early Vote, which shows Democrats and Republicans running neck-in-neck. (I understand Bonier’s model is controversial. The data in his analysis currently has about a one-day lag.)
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state
Any breakdown by county?
Georgia’s Election Data Hub is one of the best official websites I have seen. Check it out! And, yes, you can pull up a breakdown by county.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
That’s a very clean website design