I'm in the very small slice of Irvine in Katrina Foley's district, and have confidence she can get reelected. She's an Energizer bunny at getting to every community event morning to night and is well liked. This sets up a battle of former mayors or Costa Mesa (Foley) and Newport Beach (Dixon).
Carolina Forward did another poll regarding the Cooper/Whatley Senate race plus the state Supreme Court and legislative races. Cooper maintains a +5 lead.
What's a bit concerning about the NC Supreme Court race between incumbent Justice Anita Earls and MAGA Sarah Stevens is that the race is effectively tied right now. The state Supreme Court race is still low visibility at this point.
And will likely remain so. In 2024 Alison Riggs underperformed Stein, which was to be expected, but also our LT Gov candidate, AG candidate, SoS candidate, and Superintendent candidate.
The ticket splitting in NC was pretty crazy if you think about it. The races were all over the place.I would not consider the Supreme Court race a slam dunk at all.
Ticket splitting is historically higher in midterm years without the presidential race attracting everyone's attention. I still think Earls will win due to the lean of the year and Stevens being a pretty weak opponent.
I am curious, should Ds sweep the judicial races this year, how will they fare in a presidential year where Rs are defending five Court of Appeals seats (one of them Jefferson Griffin) and three state Supreme Court seats.
I don't know, but Earls is a must win this year if Democrats have any hope to retake the majority on the Supreme Court in 2028.
Jefferson Griffin is a polarizing figure so I hope he has a strong opponent and goes down in flames after the crap he tried to pull in last year's Supreme Court battle.
All the GOP NC Supreme Court justices except one of them supported Griffins illegal power grab. I know the chief justice was one of them and I believe he's up for reelection in 2028.
You might be interested in this zoom call next Wed.
Was it ticket splitting or ballot drop off? Dems are much worse about not voting for candidates with whom they are not familiar, while Republicans will vote for anyone with an R next to their name.
Sister District discussed this in a zoom. IIRC there was a detailed paper about it, but I'm not sure I can lay my hand on the details.
A tie in the legislature generic ballot would probably gain us nothing in the state senate and maybe only allow us to beat Cotham in the state house. We probably need like a 5 point margin there to get back to the 55 seats we held after 2018.
Sorry, I want a action on ICE NOW! If the democrats dont begin a constructive plan for ICE, I will go to all my local polling places and urge everyone I can see not to vote for Jeffrey’s and Schumer!
Earls is +86 with Dems, -84 with Republicans, and +15 with indies. The math isn't mathing. Cooper is +93 with Dems, -82 with Republicans, and +29 with indies and that's only a five-point lead? They overweighted Republicans pretty substantially.
That said, I think the Supreme Court race will definitely be closer than the Senate race. Earls needs to hammer Stevens on her lack of judicial experience and for being a partisan state legislator.
I think the nasty Riggs vs. Griffin fight will ensure Democrats and independents vote in all the downballot races going forward.
And it's going to be hilarious if Earls ends up 10-20K votes higher than Stevens on Election Night and the shortened cure ballot period (ushered by Stevens herself) keeps her from flipping the seat.
The sample is slightly R and rural heavy. Self-id R+4, and rural sampled at 36%. I’d say something like R+2, and rural at 34%, might be closer to reality.
You are in Virginia, right? Just to mention the sister state right south of her, is VERY different. NC has a huge rural population (actually more small towns than rural) second only to Texas.
North Carolina is one of those states where republicans usually do better than the polling, this might just be a very representative sample. Hopefully dems turnout and are a bigger share of the electorate.
Generally been the case here since 2014 (although polling was pretty spot on here in 2022 and 2024). 2020 and 2016 were pretty bad. 2016 had the presidential and senate races basically tied before Trump won by 4 and Burr won the senate race by 6.
2020 wasn’t too far off in the Pres race but was pretty bad in the senate race where Tillis won even though some late polls actually had Cunningham over 50%.
If you live in NC, NC Dems are launching a program to get volunteers to canvass their neighbors about the importance of voting for Anita Earls and the other judicial candidates. There is a kickoff meeting on Zoom next Wed (1/28) from 6 - 7 pm ET:
Field Team Justice is NCDP’s network of grassroots volunteers dedicated to electing Justice Anita Earls and our Court of Appeals candidates next year.
We’re launching our Anytime/Anywhere Canvassing program—an easy, flexible way to help voters learn about our judicial candidates. We’re putting powerful tools in your hands so you can grow this movement right from your own neighborhood.
HOW TO JOIN:
Attend our kickoff training on January 28, featuring a detailed walkthrough of the program and a ✨ special appearance by Justice Anita Earls. ✨
Then canvass anytime, anywhere.
HOW IT WORKS:
Canvass wherever you are, and recruit friends to join you!
Enter a list number in MiniVAN (same one for everyone!)
Automatically receive the 15 closest doors where there are voters we need to reach.
We’ll meet monthly to share updates and welcome new volunteers.
If you want to boost voter turnout in general in NC for the 2026 election, please consider participating in Postcards to Swing States "News Boosting" postcard-writing campaigns this spring. They mail you the postcards, the list of names & addresses, and a script for free; you are responsible for the postage. (The minimum quantity you can order is 100 postcards, but the form defaults to 200).
NC is one of 5 states involved - the others are GA, IA, ME, and MI. The targeted voters will each receive 5 postcards showing real news headlines about the damage being done by the Trump Regime. The completed "News Boosting" postcards will be mailed out to voters between Feb. and April, on a staggered basis. (Their traditional GOTV postcards will be mailed to volunteers starting May 1st and completed postcards will be mailed to voters in October).
The first postcard in the series discussed the impact of the cuts in Medicaid and its impact on Rural hospitals and the people who rely on them. The completed postcards will be mailed to voters on Feb 4th.
I'm currently writing postcards for the second campaign in the series which discusses the Trump Regime's effort to weaken state laws that protect consumers' credit scores from being trashed by medical debt. We received our postcards right before the holidays and they will be mailed Feb 18th..
If all of these postcards have already been distributed to volunteers, they may have moved onto the third postcard in the series. I haven't heard yet what that message is/will be.
The American Prospect had a story about it earlier this month. Essentially, Cavanaugh is both the progressive and the local establishment pick, go figure; while according to that story, Denise Powell is in second place as an outsider moderate backed by Emily's List and other DCCC-adjacent groups. However, the poll puts Powell in third place, with Crystal Rhoads in second. https://prospect.org/2025/11/13/key-nebraska-house-primary-features-establishment-progressive-and-outsider-moderate/
Good news. Powell is also backed by AIPAC, as well as the neoliberal group and DLC successor "Majority Democrats," operated by Jake Auchincloss and Lis Smith. Cavanaugh is the scion of a political dynasty who nevertheless turned out to be a Bernie-aligned progressive, with backing from former governors and senators such as Bill Nelson.
Since this is Nebraska, I'm wondering if you meant Ben Nelson (former Dem U.S. Senator from Nebraska) instead of Bill Nelson (former Dem U.S. Senator from Florida).
Rep. Julia Letlow just announced her candidacy against Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary in Louisiana. Trump has endorsed Letlow, rather than the GOP incumbent. One could hope that the Republican division empowers a Democratic candidate.
If no Dem emerges we should seriously consider getting (tacitly) behind Cassidy. He voted to remove Trump, which makes him better than 90% of the GOP senate caucus.
I don't know. He's been pretty conservative this session in an attempt to cozy up to Trump. And he just might win his primary due to the large number of candidates.
LA-Sen: State Treasurer John Fleming is staying in the race after Rep. Letlow entered. Emerson and Miguez are expected to drop out, while Skrmetta and Seiden may stay in.
Meanwhile, the most notable Democratic Candidate running (at least if going by how professionally designed and written it is) is Jamie Davis, a crop farmer.
So far, three notable issues Davis is running on are affordability, education and healthcare.
Yet another primary challenge. This time it’s trans ex-Space Force colonel (Trump pushed her out) Bree Fram, who is challenging James Walkinshaw as a Dem. (Although the redrawing of maps in VA may affect that.)
This will be an interesting primary. Mac Deford lost before, running again. Latina candidate who is Dem party chair in Beaufort, which is in the district, but not Charleston area, and now Lacore. Joe Cunningham flipped this for a term before reapportionment. Could flip again.
WV-Sen: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito has secured the endorsement of the majority of the legislature in her bid for re-election, a blow to state Sen. Tom Willis. Considering the public opinion of our legislature (one of the worst in the nation), it's not a ringing endorsement.
I wonder when a potential Klobuchar announcement might be. I hope it's not just her in the primary, either - Steve Simon should run and maybe Nick Frentz.
It could probably be competitive with the current Democrat running, Jake Johnson, who has raised roughly $600 thousand already. Frentz probably has more name recognition and backing, and could fund more, though.
John Cornyn calls Talarico a dangerous campaigner and predicts he will beat Crockett. Coons praises Talarico but says he is not ready to endorse him yet, so are Bernie Sanders and Van Hollen.
Sanders has been labeled as racist due to his poor reception in the Black community, to be fair, and Van Hollen faced a prominent Black opponent, Donna Edwards, in his first run for Senate, so I understand why they're a little hesitant.
TX though I am not convinced Cornyn will be given a pass over his BBB vote. The race is likely going to be closer than expected and I don't think he can be too comfortable in this sense.
Of course, knowing how difficult TX is for Democrats statewide, Cornyn could still pull off a win even if it's 1.5-2.0% points. I'm not sure if BBB alone will be enough to unseat him but I also think Talarico is thinking bigger than this in his Senate campaign.
Yes. It would also be an improvement over Beto O’Rourke’s election results back in 2018. Could also make TX more at play in the presidential election similarly to how 2020 fared for Biden in the state.
Conspiratorial, but I think this is trying to insert more bad blood between Crockett and Talarico supporters lol. Specifically: "Cornyn likes Talarico!! He thinks Crockett won't win, but let's show him!!"
He might actually be right, too. I know TX has been fools gold for us forever but Talarico vs. Paxton in a Dem wave midterm where Latino voting reverts close to normal patterns might JUST be enough for us to pull it off...
threat of tariffs on allies causes markets to tumble enabling trumps friends to buy on the dip and make a few extra bucks when the market recovers later in the week. it is so obvious it would be laughable except.....
Johnny Olszewski and Sarah Elfreth live in the same district on this map. Olszewski already doesn't live in his district, though, so he probably wouldn't mind just running in another district.
If everyone ran where they live or in a similar constituency, then MD-01 seems designed to set up an Elfreth-Harris race with the former a heavy favourite. MD-02 seems like Johnny O's constituency, while MD-03 would probably be open.
Everyone else would presumably run in the same-numbered district, with Hoyer's open MD-05 similar to its current configuration. Both Delaney and Trone live in this redrawn MD-06, while neither lives in the current one. But for any of this to become a reality it has to clear the legislature and at least not be voided in court which is an uphill fight.
Not a bad map, but the 7th is a bit overpacked. It could stand to lose some Democrats to the 2nd (Harris +12) and especially the 3rd (Harris +9) while remaining solidly Democratic and majority African-American.
Didn't they try crossing the Bay Bridge to shift MD-01 in 2021 and the courts threw it out? I would've thought they'd try a different configuration of MD-01 to withstand legal challenges. They should've aimed to get it to at least a single digit Trump district.
Noah is one of my best friends! It’s so cool that he’s getting mentioned in your newsletter.
I appreciate the Orange County BOS deep dive!
I'm in the very small slice of Irvine in Katrina Foley's district, and have confidence she can get reelected. She's an Energizer bunny at getting to every community event morning to night and is well liked. This sets up a battle of former mayors or Costa Mesa (Foley) and Newport Beach (Dixon).
I'm not even a sports guy but that was a hell of a game last night.
Carolina Forward did another poll regarding the Cooper/Whatley Senate race plus the state Supreme Court and legislative races. Cooper maintains a +5 lead.
https://carolinaforward.org/blog/the-january-carolina-forward-poll/?emci=ccc6309b-42f2-f011-8194-000d3a11f903&emdi=303cfe55-f3f5-f011-8d4c-0022482d279b&ceid=13375922
What's a bit concerning about the NC Supreme Court race between incumbent Justice Anita Earls and MAGA Sarah Stevens is that the race is effectively tied right now. The state Supreme Court race is still low visibility at this point.
And will likely remain so. In 2024 Alison Riggs underperformed Stein, which was to be expected, but also our LT Gov candidate, AG candidate, SoS candidate, and Superintendent candidate.
The ticket splitting in NC was pretty crazy if you think about it. The races were all over the place.I would not consider the Supreme Court race a slam dunk at all.
There won't be as much ticket-splitting this year, I can guarantee that.
Ticket splitting is historically higher in midterm years without the presidential race attracting everyone's attention. I still think Earls will win due to the lean of the year and Stevens being a pretty weak opponent.
I am curious, should Ds sweep the judicial races this year, how will they fare in a presidential year where Rs are defending five Court of Appeals seats (one of them Jefferson Griffin) and three state Supreme Court seats.
I don't know, but Earls is a must win this year if Democrats have any hope to retake the majority on the Supreme Court in 2028.
Jefferson Griffin is a polarizing figure so I hope he has a strong opponent and goes down in flames after the crap he tried to pull in last year's Supreme Court battle.
All the GOP NC Supreme Court justices except one of them supported Griffins illegal power grab. I know the chief justice was one of them and I believe he's up for reelection in 2028.
You might be interested in this zoom call next Wed.
www.mobilize.us/ncdems/event/870793/
Was it ticket splitting or ballot drop off? Dems are much worse about not voting for candidates with whom they are not familiar, while Republicans will vote for anyone with an R next to their name.
Sister District discussed this in a zoom. IIRC there was a detailed paper about it, but I'm not sure I can lay my hand on the details.
A tie in the legislature generic ballot would probably gain us nothing in the state senate and maybe only allow us to beat Cotham in the state house. We probably need like a 5 point margin there to get back to the 55 seats we held after 2018.
Sorry, I want a action on ICE NOW! If the democrats dont begin a constructive plan for ICE, I will go to all my local polling places and urge everyone I can see not to vote for Jeffrey’s and Schumer!
Earls is +86 with Dems, -84 with Republicans, and +15 with indies. The math isn't mathing. Cooper is +93 with Dems, -82 with Republicans, and +29 with indies and that's only a five-point lead? They overweighted Republicans pretty substantially.
That said, I think the Supreme Court race will definitely be closer than the Senate race. Earls needs to hammer Stevens on her lack of judicial experience and for being a partisan state legislator.
Cross-tabs say 46 R, 40 D, 14 I ("pure independent")
Their likely voters are heavily weighted to older voters, hard to say whether the election will turn out that way.
They should poll based on voter files and model party loyalty off that. It's very easy to search a voter's party ID in North Carolina.
it's hilarious that anyone thinks the midterm electorate will look like this
I think the nasty Riggs vs. Griffin fight will ensure Democrats and independents vote in all the downballot races going forward.
And it's going to be hilarious if Earls ends up 10-20K votes higher than Stevens on Election Night and the shortened cure ballot period (ushered by Stevens herself) keeps her from flipping the seat.
Tipped, but there will always be voters who don't turn out except when there's a presidential election.
Let's hope more of them are Republicans in this year's midterm!
The sample is slightly R and rural heavy. Self-id R+4, and rural sampled at 36%. I’d say something like R+2, and rural at 34%, might be closer to reality.
You are in Virginia, right? Just to mention the sister state right south of her, is VERY different. NC has a huge rural population (actually more small towns than rural) second only to Texas.
I am not in Virginia. South of there. I'm seeing R+6 in this sample.
About 50 more in the weight sample of 1105. A bit heavy, but not outrageously so.
Anyway, leading even in a more conservative sample is good.
North Carolina is one of those states where republicans usually do better than the polling, this might just be a very representative sample. Hopefully dems turnout and are a bigger share of the electorate.
Generally been the case here since 2014 (although polling was pretty spot on here in 2022 and 2024). 2020 and 2016 were pretty bad. 2016 had the presidential and senate races basically tied before Trump won by 4 and Burr won the senate race by 6.
2020 wasn’t too far off in the Pres race but was pretty bad in the senate race where Tillis won even though some late polls actually had Cunningham over 50%.
Cunningham was a deeply flawed candidate.
Want to get involved in promoting Justice Earls? If you live in NC, check this out: www.mobilize.us/ncdems/event/870793/
If you live in NC, NC Dems are launching a program to get volunteers to canvass their neighbors about the importance of voting for Anita Earls and the other judicial candidates. There is a kickoff meeting on Zoom next Wed (1/28) from 6 - 7 pm ET:
www.mobilize.us/ncdems/event/870793/
⬆️ JOIN FIELD TEAM JUSTICE!
Field Team Justice is NCDP’s network of grassroots volunteers dedicated to electing Justice Anita Earls and our Court of Appeals candidates next year.
We’re launching our Anytime/Anywhere Canvassing program—an easy, flexible way to help voters learn about our judicial candidates. We’re putting powerful tools in your hands so you can grow this movement right from your own neighborhood.
HOW TO JOIN:
Attend our kickoff training on January 28, featuring a detailed walkthrough of the program and a ✨ special appearance by Justice Anita Earls. ✨
Then canvass anytime, anywhere.
HOW IT WORKS:
Canvass wherever you are, and recruit friends to join you!
Enter a list number in MiniVAN (same one for everyone!)
Automatically receive the 15 closest doors where there are voters we need to reach.
We’ll meet monthly to share updates and welcome new volunteers.
If you want to boost voter turnout in general in NC for the 2026 election, please consider participating in Postcards to Swing States "News Boosting" postcard-writing campaigns this spring. They mail you the postcards, the list of names & addresses, and a script for free; you are responsible for the postage. (The minimum quantity you can order is 100 postcards, but the form defaults to 200).
https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/
NC is one of 5 states involved - the others are GA, IA, ME, and MI. The targeted voters will each receive 5 postcards showing real news headlines about the damage being done by the Trump Regime. The completed "News Boosting" postcards will be mailed out to voters between Feb. and April, on a staggered basis. (Their traditional GOTV postcards will be mailed to volunteers starting May 1st and completed postcards will be mailed to voters in October).
The first postcard in the series discussed the impact of the cuts in Medicaid and its impact on Rural hospitals and the people who rely on them. The completed postcards will be mailed to voters on Feb 4th.
I'm currently writing postcards for the second campaign in the series which discusses the Trump Regime's effort to weaken state laws that protect consumers' credit scores from being trashed by medical debt. We received our postcards right before the holidays and they will be mailed Feb 18th..
If all of these postcards have already been distributed to volunteers, they may have moved onto the third postcard in the series. I haven't heard yet what that message is/will be.
New (Cavanaugh internal) poll in NE-02, probably the surest Dem flip of this cycle. According to this poll, he looks to be in good shape. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019b-d940-dcbd-afbb-d97bf2c10000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f104-dd93-ad7f-f90525bf0003
The American Prospect had a story about it earlier this month. Essentially, Cavanaugh is both the progressive and the local establishment pick, go figure; while according to that story, Denise Powell is in second place as an outsider moderate backed by Emily's List and other DCCC-adjacent groups. However, the poll puts Powell in third place, with Crystal Rhoads in second. https://prospect.org/2025/11/13/key-nebraska-house-primary-features-establishment-progressive-and-outsider-moderate/
Good news. Powell is also backed by AIPAC, as well as the neoliberal group and DLC successor "Majority Democrats," operated by Jake Auchincloss and Lis Smith. Cavanaugh is the scion of a political dynasty who nevertheless turned out to be a Bernie-aligned progressive, with backing from former governors and senators such as Bill Nelson.
Since this is Nebraska, I'm wondering if you meant Ben Nelson (former Dem U.S. Senator from Nebraska) instead of Bill Nelson (former Dem U.S. Senator from Florida).
Rep. Julia Letlow just announced her candidacy against Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary in Louisiana. Trump has endorsed Letlow, rather than the GOP incumbent. One could hope that the Republican division empowers a Democratic candidate.
Time for the clown car of legislators to join the race to succeed her.
If no Dem emerges we should seriously consider getting (tacitly) behind Cassidy. He voted to remove Trump, which makes him better than 90% of the GOP senate caucus.
I don't know. He's been pretty conservative this session in an attempt to cozy up to Trump. And he just might win his primary due to the large number of candidates.
Mhm. I don’t see a way that he wins the closed primary. The more candidates the worse for him. May not even make the primary runoff.
They changed to the closed party primary, 50%+1 or runoff. The general election is FPTP.
Not sure how Democrats can help him, unless he switches parties.
Nah. Let Cassidy work for RFK Jr. since he's done so much to violate his Hippocratic oath by elevating him.
nah. no need. he won't win regardless.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/4424694/bill-cassidy-challenger-trump-preferred-gop-senate-candidate/
LA-Sen: State Treasurer John Fleming is staying in the race after Rep. Letlow entered. Emerson and Miguez are expected to drop out, while Skrmetta and Seiden may stay in.
Meanwhile, the most notable Democratic Candidate running (at least if going by how professionally designed and written it is) is Jamie Davis, a crop farmer.
So far, three notable issues Davis is running on are affordability, education and healthcare.
https://www.jamieforlouisiana.com/
VA-11:
https://www.advocate.com/politics/bree-fram-congressional-run
Yet another primary challenge. This time it’s trans ex-Space Force colonel (Trump pushed her out) Bree Fram, who is challenging James Walkinshaw as a Dem. (Although the redrawing of maps in VA may affect that.)
https://www.chicoer.com/2026/01/16/gavin-newsom-announces-special-election-to-fill-doug-lamalfas-seat/
CA-1: Audrey Denney, a Democratic candidate in November for this seat, will also run in the August special.
SC-1:
https://www.live5news.com/2026/01/20/navy-veteran-announces-run-represent-scs-first-congressional-district/
Navy veteran Nancy Lacore, who apparently led the Reserve Officer Training Corps there, is in as a Dem for this open seat Nancy Mace is leaving.
This will be an interesting primary. Mac Deford lost before, running again. Latina candidate who is Dem party chair in Beaufort, which is in the district, but not Charleston area, and now Lacore. Joe Cunningham flipped this for a term before reapportionment. Could flip again.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/774800-austin-rogers-considering-a-run-to-succeed-neal-dunn-in-cd-2/
FL-2: A top adviser to Sen. Rick Scott, Austin Rogers, is considering a run for Congress, in the seat being vacated by Neal Dunn.
https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/majority-of-west-virginia-house-members-endorse-capito-for-senate-reelection/article_434b537a-08fa-4ae7-8c01-a8ed755cea50.html
WV-Sen: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito has secured the endorsement of the majority of the legislature in her bid for re-election, a blow to state Sen. Tom Willis. Considering the public opinion of our legislature (one of the worst in the nation), it's not a ringing endorsement.
MN-Gov, MN-AG:
https://www.kaaltv.com/news/ellison-gives-statement-on-re-election-run/
Keith Ellison is not running for Governor, and will instead run for re-election as AG.
Good.
I wonder when a potential Klobuchar announcement might be. I hope it's not just her in the primary, either - Steve Simon should run and maybe Nick Frentz.
I think Nick Frentz should run for Mn-1. With Klobhchar at the top of the ticket I think it could be competitive
It could probably be competitive with the current Democrat running, Jake Johnson, who has raised roughly $600 thousand already. Frentz probably has more name recognition and backing, and could fund more, though.
I like that idea.
John Cornyn calls Talarico a dangerous campaigner and predicts he will beat Crockett. Coons praises Talarico but says he is not ready to endorse him yet, so are Bernie Sanders and Van Hollen.
https://www.semafor.com/article/01/20/2026/talarico-makes-rounds-with-democrats-as-senate-primaries-near
I think these Dem senators are really scared of being called "racist" which is why they aren't endorsing him yet.
Sanders has been labeled as racist due to his poor reception in the Black community, to be fair, and Van Hollen faced a prominent Black opponent, Donna Edwards, in his first run for Senate, so I understand why they're a little hesitant.
Dangerous campaigner?
Nah, more like dangerous to Cornyn and his re-election chances, especially considering he voted for the BBB.
Most Republicans voted for the BBB but unfortunately a majority of them will probably win again.
If we're talking about the red states, then yes.
TX though I am not convinced Cornyn will be given a pass over his BBB vote. The race is likely going to be closer than expected and I don't think he can be too comfortable in this sense.
Of course, knowing how difficult TX is for Democrats statewide, Cornyn could still pull off a win even if it's 1.5-2.0% points. I'm not sure if BBB alone will be enough to unseat him but I also think Talarico is thinking bigger than this in his Senate campaign.
If he wins by only 2% or less, the Democrats will have had a very good night.
Yes. It would also be an improvement over Beto O’Rourke’s election results back in 2018. Could also make TX more at play in the presidential election similarly to how 2020 fared for Biden in the state.
I think that’s what Cornyn meant?
Conspiratorial, but I think this is trying to insert more bad blood between Crockett and Talarico supporters lol. Specifically: "Cornyn likes Talarico!! He thinks Crockett won't win, but let's show him!!"
Possibly but really, what does Cornyn have in him otherwise that doesn't make him a colossal bore?
He's just saying that Talarico can beat Paxton. I don't think he's wrong. That's the perfect matchup for lightning to strike.
Yea this is trying to tell republicans that wonky eye Paxton will lose to Talirico so they need to vote Cornyn in the Primary or else.
He might actually be right, too. I know TX has been fools gold for us forever but Talarico vs. Paxton in a Dem wave midterm where Latino voting reverts close to normal patterns might JUST be enough for us to pull it off...
They don't need to endorse, no one cares who they endorse. So yea if it prevents some bad blood then they should just keep it to themselves.
(I'd say "neither are Bernie Sanders or Van Hollen" for what I believe is your intended meaning.)
threat of tariffs on allies causes markets to tumble enabling trumps friends to buy on the dip and make a few extra bucks when the market recovers later in the week. it is so obvious it would be laughable except.....
The EU isn’t fucking around with Germany getting behind the ACI this time, either
What's the ACI?
Anti Corrcion Instrument. The so called trade bazooka
Anything good i can buy on the dip?
TSLA///not!!
Corn chips?
Waffles! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsANCi4Q5MY
Maryland commission recommends new congressional map but senate president Ferguson remains opposed.
https://www.wbal.com/maryland-redistricting-commission-approves-new-congressional-map-amid-criticism
Ferguson has a left primary challenger, for the record. Something to keep in mind.
https://bobbyforbaltimore.com/
Johnny Olszewski and Sarah Elfreth live in the same district on this map. Olszewski already doesn't live in his district, though, so he probably wouldn't mind just running in another district.
If everyone ran where they live or in a similar constituency, then MD-01 seems designed to set up an Elfreth-Harris race with the former a heavy favourite. MD-02 seems like Johnny O's constituency, while MD-03 would probably be open.
Everyone else would presumably run in the same-numbered district, with Hoyer's open MD-05 similar to its current configuration. Both Delaney and Trone live in this redrawn MD-06, while neither lives in the current one. But for any of this to become a reality it has to clear the legislature and at least not be voided in court which is an uphill fight.
Here's Stephen Wolf's data:
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenwolf.bsky.social/post/3mcvc565fjk2n
Would be nice to see Elfreth defeat Harris. I wonder who could run for the open MD-3.
Harry Dunn probs shifts his focus from Md-5 if the 3rd opens up
Potential Sarbanes comeback? Or is he just done, do we think?
gotta be related to Johnny O of football fame
Surprisingly, no
Not a bad map, but the 7th is a bit overpacked. It could stand to lose some Democrats to the 2nd (Harris +12) and especially the 3rd (Harris +9) while remaining solidly Democratic and majority African-American.
Didn't they try crossing the Bay Bridge to shift MD-01 in 2021 and the courts threw it out? I would've thought they'd try a different configuration of MD-01 to withstand legal challenges. They should've aimed to get it to at least a single digit Trump district.