Morning Digest: The race is on for control of Orange County, California

Democrats flipped the Board of Supervisors in 2022. They have to defend it in 2026.

Democrat Katrina Foley is defending a crucial seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors (Credit: Katrina Foley Facebook)

Leading Off

Orange County, CA Board of Supervisors

California Democrats are trying to defend the historic 3-2 majority they won in 2022 on the Orange County Board of Supervisors—and forge a more harmonious coalition than the one they’ve had to work with over the last three years.

All three Democratic-held seats will be up in 2026, so the majority party needs to hold them all in this year’s officially nonpartisan elections to maintain control of this former conservative Southern California bastion. The two Republican supervisors, Janet Nguyen and Donald Wagner, won new four-year terms in 2024, so Democrats won’t be able to go on the offense this cycle.

One of the trio of Democratic incumbents, Vicente Sarmiento, holds the reliably blue 2nd District, and he doesn’t currently face any serious opposition in his reelection campaign. There’s more drama, though, around what happens next in the seats held by Katrina Foley, who is seeking reelection, and Doug Chaffee, who is termed out.

Chaffee’s 2018 election, which came two years after Hillary Clinton became the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Orange County since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936, made him the first Democratic supervisor in 12 years. However, Chaffee has often sided with Republicans during his two terms representing the 4th District.

Chaffee, who won again in 2022 over an opponent backed by the county Democratic Party, has had an especially bad relationship with Foley. Chaffee last year endorsed Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon, who is challenging Foley in the 5th District, and he stood in Foley’s way last week when she sought to become chair of the Board of Supervisors.

Voice of OC’s Norberto Santana explains that, while Foley’s position as vice chair would ordinarily make her a favorite to assume the mostly ceremonial top job, her colleague had other ideas. But Chaffee, who was finishing up a one-year stint as chair, reportedly planned to vote to make Nguyen his successor instead.

Foley avoided this confrontation by nominating Chaffee to serve another year as chair while she remained vice chair, and the body approved the status quo. Republicans, though, are hoping that Dixon will ensure Foley won’t be in office next year when she’d next be in line for the gavel.

Foley’s 5th District, which includes Costa Mesa, part of Irvine, and other communities in the southern part of the county, backed Kamala Harris just 49-48—a margin of 318 votes—four years after Joe Biden prevailed 52-46. Foley herself won her spot on the Board in a 2021 special election, and she secured her first full term the next year 51-49.

It’s not clear, though, if this year’s battle for the 5th District will be decided on June 2 or November 3.

All the candidates will run on one ballot in the officially nonpartisan primary, which takes place the same day that California holds its statewide top-two primary. Candidates for Orange County supervisor, though, can avoid a second round of voting if they secure a majority of the vote—something that is not an option for statewide, congressional, and legislative contenders.

One minor candidate has filed for the 5th District, and the lineup could expand before filing closes on March 6. A larger field would make it more difficult for either Foley or Dixon to win outright.

The race to replace Chaffee in the 4th District, which includes Fullerton and other cities in the northern part of the county, may already be too busy for anyone to win in round one.

However, this is a rare time when Chaffee and the Orange County Democratic Party are on the same side. Buena Park Mayor Connor Traut has the support of these disparate factions, while Foley is also in his corner.

His main opponent is county Board of Education member Tim Shaw, a Republican who lost to Chaffee 50.4 to 49.6 in 2018. Noah Biesiada, also writing for Voice of OC, says the county GOP is backing Shaw’s new campaign for a constituency that Harris carried 52-45.

Fullerton Mayor Fred Jung, a former Democrat who became an independent last year, and La Habra City Councilwoman Rose Espinoza, who ran for the state Assembly in 2022 as a Democrat, are also campaigning to replace Chaffee. Biesiada, however, writes that neither of these candidates has support from either major party.

Election Night

Special Elections

Virginia will host yet another special election on Tuesday to succeed a Democrat who resigned to join Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s administration, but there’s little suspense about what will happen in the 17th House District. Kamala Harris carried this Northern Virginia constituency 70-27, and Democrat Garrett McGuire should have little trouble succeeding former Del. Mark Sickles.

Down in middle Georgia, five Republicans and one Democrat are competing on a single ballot for the state Senate seat that Republican John F. Kennedy resigned from last month to focus on his campaign for lieutenant governor. (Kennedy’s middle name is Flanders.) A second round of voting would take place on Feb. 17 if no one wins a majority on Tuesday.

Donald Trump took just over 60% of the vote in the 18th District as Kennedy won his final term without opposition. National Democrats, though, are hoping that the packed GOP field and their party’s strong showing in the state’s 2025 contests will give their sole candidate, former Fort Valley City Councilman LeMario Brown, the chance to pull off a shock win on Tuesday or in a runoff.