huge longshot but if blakeman is as toxic as the one half of my family in upstate new york thinks, maybe this helps the dairy farmer running for stefanik's seat. would be a heckavu pickup
didn't want to butcher his name, but yes. he's got a decent sized haul thus far, and north country advertising isn't that expensive. IMO he's a decent fit for the district in the mold of the prior dem rep john owens, who retired in 2014, prior to owens I do not know if the democrats had ever held the north country congressional seat
Both. I would love to see her defy expectations and win both Tuesday and in November, but TX has not shown the kind of purple electorate in GA that got both Jon Ossoff and Rev. Warnock elected in 2021.
I thought that her seat was re-drawn to make it unwinnable for a Democrat. I am not sure of that, though. The primary cannot come soon enough. My Texas friends already voted early and for Talarico...
The Supreme court only ruled to allow the TX gerrymander on Friday, Dec 5, 2025. The TX filing deadline was Monday, Dec 8th.
So waiting to see if she would actually would have a chance to win back her current seat in the House before declaring for the Senate seems a whole lot more likely to me than whatever weird conspiracy theory you seem to be promoting.
Questioning Crockett's decision to run for the Senate a day before the filing deadline is not a conspiracy theory. It's me asking questions as to how committed she was in being a Senator.
It's true Crockett's seat was at risk of being potentially gerrymandered but running for the Senate is a whole different beast, which means she has to elevate her image to a higher level than what she had been given in being in the House. Why does running for the Senate have to be necessary if a House seat is at risk?
I don't think any of the polling is accurate. If there's a significant amount of TX Republicans crossing over and voting for Talarico, it's not going to show up in the crosstabs.
I do think the primary winner will be announced before 11 p.m.-12 a.m. CST on Tuesday night.
Well i have voted in the republican primaries for fun, to r%tfuck against incumbents but only because the dem side is usually dull as dishwater but i'm voting dem this year because of this senate race.
There's been anecdotes of disaffected Texas Rs, mostly on social media like FB, who are fed up with Trump and Abbott's antics, who decided to crossover and vote their values by going for Talarico. (Some cite it as the first time they ever voted for a Democrat!)
I'm not sure if that will make a difference in the overall margins, but if it's true, November 2026 will be interesting to witness.
It is difficult to predict voting patterns in an open primary like Texas. First we don't register by partisan affiliation. That means the "R" or "D" by a voter's name is based on their history of which ballot they pulled in the past, plus demographic analysis. It is not the voter making that choice at registration. That makes it difficult to draw hard conclusions about voter motivations. In a way, it is helpful to think of every voter in an open primary state as a swing voter.
Second, Democrats have not fielded candidates in local races in thirty years. So, many, many Democrats or Democrat-curious have a history of voting in Republican primaries so they can have some say so in their local elections. Now that we have this big race at the top and more Democrats on local ballots than in the last thirty years, we may be seeing voters who voted in the Republican primary for pragmatic reasons now voting in the Democratic primary because they want to.
What the data seems to indicate is that people pulling Democratic ballots right now aren't deeply partisan Republicans crossing over. Rather, this surge is powered by independents and "lean Democrat" and of course, first time primary voters who haven't given us a history.
As to the hotly contested Republican Senate race, that is a race to the bottom and it is probably turning off some Republicans. Two of the choices are disliked by non-MAGA Republicans and Cornyn is detested by MAGA Republicans. I think the hotly contested race at the top is probably causing some Republicans to stay home.
Bottom line - no one is entirely sure what is happening right now, other than voters are pulling Democratic ballots at an incredible rate.
IIRC, unaffilated voters can vote in the primaries in TX, so it may be them more than Republicans who vote for him if they believe Jasmine Crockett is "too radical" and all of the GOP candidates are too flawed/ corrupt.
I personally like both Democratic candidates in the TX senate rate. Either would be far superior to anything the GOP is offering.
But I must admit that it would be the chef's kiss if CBS's effort to block James Talarico's interview on Colbert (and its subsequent surge in online viewership due to the Streisand effect) resulted in Talarico winning the primary and then the general election.
I have been disappointed too many times in past elections by the inherent racism and sexism not to think that Talarico has a built in advantage because he is a white male.
The Citizen Voting Age Population in Texas is around 14% Black and 31% Hispanic. If most Black voters are Dems, then around 28% Black is a fair guesstimate for the Dem primary electorate. However, I would expect the Hispanic proportion to be a bit higher.
came here to post it and you got it 1st. Notably, there's a real separation between the five top-tier candidates all above 10 percent, and the lower tier candidates, none of which are above 5 percent. (Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Yee at 5 percent; Mahan, 3 percent; Thurmond, 2 percent; Calderon, 1 percent)
Why are all of the current and former statewide elected officials doing so poorly in this race? You’d think they’d be better known to voters across California than people like Swalwell.
With respect to the voters, I don't think most people can name all their statewide elected officials, especially those that are no longer serving. Swalwell has much more name recognition because of impeachment.
"According to a Gallup/Harris poll … a full 37 percent of American citizens are incapable of identifying their home country on a map of the United States."
Swalwell is constantly on TV/cable. As for the others... can your neighbor (not a political junkie like you and me) name a single former secretary of health and human services, or a former state controller or attorney general?
Though I agree that Cornyn is a better candidate, Paxton’s vulnerability as a candidate is overrated. He’s won every election despite Federal investigations and impeachment by the Texas Republican House. And a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist and pedo protester carried Texas overwhelmingly in 2024, 2020 and 2016.
Yes but this environment is closest to his 2018 first reelection, where he was held to a 3.56% margin against a true nobody and ofc wasn't the top of the ticket. And that was before his impeachment and without a long, divisive primary and runoff (he was unopposed for the nomination). Anyone saying it's a cakewalk à la Mark Robinson would be an idiot, but he's definitely the most vulnerable by far.
True. But I think Talarico has authenticity going for him the way Josh Stein and Roy Cooper do.
And if it is a Paxton v. Talarico match, it's going to be a clear choice between a clownishly corrupt serial adulterer and a young Ossoff type who's palatable to both progressives and moderate Rs.
Buddy of mine once said “Texas is a place where people put on their cowboy boots, get in their pickup truck, and go to their cubicle in an office park”
While I agree that Paxton is likely less vulnerable than many make him out to be (albeit a pricier candidate to get over the finish line than Cornyn), I do think voters treat federal races differently than statewide races. As much as we in the politico-sphere hear a lot about Paxton, I knew a lot of people while I was in Texas that couldn't tell me a single thing about any statewide elected official, including Paxton, other than Governor Abbott. They knew Ted Cruz, 'that other Republican senator', Abbott, and maybe their House rep. Everyone else was just a party-line vote.
What do people think about Tony Gonzales's seat as a reach district? His scandals are going to be real threats to him in the primary and a theoretical general, and Herrera could be seen as too extreme for a low double-digit Trump district. Katy Padilla Stout seems like a pretty solid candidate as well.
Herrera's advertising keeps touting his background as a gun manufacturer. That should not go over well in a district that includes Uvalde, site of a terrible school massacre.
the term "gun nut" gets thrown around often, but Herrera definitely qualifies. He is a YouTuber first and foremost, and has a channel with 4M subs, which is massive. He has no choice but to lean into it, its his whole lifestyle, personality, and paycheck. I really do hope it wont fit well, given, exactly that Uvalde is in this district.
State Rep. Ruwa Romman is out - running for State Senate instead (specifically the seat of fellow progressive Nabilah Parkes, who is running for Insurance Commissioner in GA).
Huge report came out. Trump is considering using false claims of foreign electoral intervention to declare a national emergency and seize elections from the states.
This doesn’t seem legal? Is it? Will SCOTUS allow it if it gets there? If this does occur, is there any hope of stopping it?
As with any executive order ask what the legal mechanism/predicate is, and if there’s not an obvious one beyond “have Feds do this thing internally” then be skeptical it would work. It’s important to remember what EOs actually do, and don’t do.
Texas Democrat here. I am a typical Texan, which means I didn't read anything else here except the Texas part. Some thoughts on Abbott's political gambit.
1. Dave Carney and Greg Abbott may be making a fatal error here. These are the kind of ads that motivate their elderly, Fox-viewing Republican base. Democratic voters may be more independent minded than that. And they aren't Fox News folks, either. And, the younger generation (who is voting Democratic in this primary right now) are a lot more savvy about media manipulations than the elderly.
2. Texas is an open primary state. Therefore, that lack of affiliation can make it difficult to categorize the views of the party members. Carney and Abbott may be vastly over-estimating how enticing AOC, etc. actually is. In other words, it is quite possible Texas Democrats are not carbon copies of Massachusetts Democrats.
3. And to the extent Democratic voters are very liberal, Talarico is actually the more populist choice. He has embraced Mamdani and Sanders, etc.
"The Cornyn/NRSC JFC is airing a new ad accusing Ken Paxton of "sleeping around with a married mother of seven" and calling him a "wife-cheater and fraud."
Has there been another instance of a committee going so hard against a candidate who it may have to support in a few months?"
I’d be shocked if that Wahls-commissioned poll is even a little accurate
If it turns out to be an Eastern Iowa vs Western Iowa thing, Wahls wins. Most Dems are in E. IA.
IL-9: Should the Abughazaleh number in the CAIR Action poll be 13 instead of 3?
Thank you, I've fixed and done a correction.
Polling:
NY Gov Marist: Hochul 50 Blakeman 33
GCB Emerson: Democrats 50-42.
huge longshot but if blakeman is as toxic as the one half of my family in upstate new york thinks, maybe this helps the dairy farmer running for stefanik's seat. would be a heckavu pickup
Blake Gendebien?
didn't want to butcher his name, but yes. he's got a decent sized haul thus far, and north country advertising isn't that expensive. IMO he's a decent fit for the district in the mold of the prior dem rep john owens, who retired in 2014, prior to owens I do not know if the democrats had ever held the north country congressional seat
Anyone who thinks Crockett wasn't Astroturfed into running for the Senate at the last minute should look at what Abbott's trying to do.
What do you mean by astroturfed into running? She only ran because Republicans wanted her to? She was fooled into running?
I would say she was fooled by herself, and Republicans are taking advantage, not that Republicans made her run. All politicians have egos.
Both. I would love to see her defy expectations and win both Tuesday and in November, but TX has not shown the kind of purple electorate in GA that got both Jon Ossoff and Rev. Warnock elected in 2021.
Is it getting there? Yes, but not quite.
I think she ran because she wanted to. Not because Republicans wanted her to. I'm for Talarico but I think that's a rather bogus charge.
Crockett running because she wanted to is a hell of thing to say considering she filed for the Senate a day before the deadline.
So? She had to decide whether it was worth giving up her seat.
I thought that her seat was re-drawn to make it unwinnable for a Democrat. I am not sure of that, though. The primary cannot come soon enough. My Texas friends already voted early and for Talarico...
The Supreme court only ruled to allow the TX gerrymander on Friday, Dec 5, 2025. The TX filing deadline was Monday, Dec 8th.
So waiting to see if she would actually would have a chance to win back her current seat in the House before declaring for the Senate seems a whole lot more likely to me than whatever weird conspiracy theory you seem to be promoting.
Questioning Crockett's decision to run for the Senate a day before the filing deadline is not a conspiracy theory. It's me asking questions as to how committed she was in being a Senator.
It's true Crockett's seat was at risk of being potentially gerrymandered but running for the Senate is a whole different beast, which means she has to elevate her image to a higher level than what she had been given in being in the House. Why does running for the Senate have to be necessary if a House seat is at risk?
Let's hope Bootlicker Abbott's meddling is as successful as his latest gerrymandering is shaping up to be.
I don't think any of the polling is accurate. If there's a significant amount of TX Republicans crossing over and voting for Talarico, it's not going to show up in the crosstabs.
I do think the primary winner will be announced before 11 p.m.-12 a.m. CST on Tuesday night.
Curious as to why you think TX Republicans vote in the Dem Primary when they have a hotly contested one of their own?
Well i have voted in the republican primaries for fun, to r%tfuck against incumbents but only because the dem side is usually dull as dishwater but i'm voting dem this year because of this senate race.
There's been anecdotes of disaffected Texas Rs, mostly on social media like FB, who are fed up with Trump and Abbott's antics, who decided to crossover and vote their values by going for Talarico. (Some cite it as the first time they ever voted for a Democrat!)
I'm not sure if that will make a difference in the overall margins, but if it's true, November 2026 will be interesting to witness.
It is difficult to predict voting patterns in an open primary like Texas. First we don't register by partisan affiliation. That means the "R" or "D" by a voter's name is based on their history of which ballot they pulled in the past, plus demographic analysis. It is not the voter making that choice at registration. That makes it difficult to draw hard conclusions about voter motivations. In a way, it is helpful to think of every voter in an open primary state as a swing voter.
Second, Democrats have not fielded candidates in local races in thirty years. So, many, many Democrats or Democrat-curious have a history of voting in Republican primaries so they can have some say so in their local elections. Now that we have this big race at the top and more Democrats on local ballots than in the last thirty years, we may be seeing voters who voted in the Republican primary for pragmatic reasons now voting in the Democratic primary because they want to.
What the data seems to indicate is that people pulling Democratic ballots right now aren't deeply partisan Republicans crossing over. Rather, this surge is powered by independents and "lean Democrat" and of course, first time primary voters who haven't given us a history.
As to the hotly contested Republican Senate race, that is a race to the bottom and it is probably turning off some Republicans. Two of the choices are disliked by non-MAGA Republicans and Cornyn is detested by MAGA Republicans. I think the hotly contested race at the top is probably causing some Republicans to stay home.
Bottom line - no one is entirely sure what is happening right now, other than voters are pulling Democratic ballots at an incredible rate.
IIRC, unaffilated voters can vote in the primaries in TX, so it may be them more than Republicans who vote for him if they believe Jasmine Crockett is "too radical" and all of the GOP candidates are too flawed/ corrupt.
I personally like both Democratic candidates in the TX senate rate. Either would be far superior to anything the GOP is offering.
But I must admit that it would be the chef's kiss if CBS's effort to block James Talarico's interview on Colbert (and its subsequent surge in online viewership due to the Streisand effect) resulted in Talarico winning the primary and then the general election.
I have been disappointed too many times in past elections by the inherent racism and sexism not to think that Talarico has a built in advantage because he is a white male.
PPP poll | 2/25
US Senate Texas Democratic primary 2026
🟦James Talarico 48%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 42%
🟦Ahmed Hassan 0%
Not sure 10%
Favorables among Texas Democrats (net)
🟦Jasmine Crockett (+70)
🟦James Talarico (+58)
🟦Ahmed Hassan (+1)
—
Do you approve of President Trump’s job performance?
❌Disapprove 97%
✅Approve 1%
——
Racial breakdown
White 40%
African-American 27%
Hispanic or Latino 27%
Other 6%
(Poll meant for pro-Talarico group)
Link to poll: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/68a237ed87f54c4157d6fcae/t/699fc465ccebdf5f9f4c89e3/1772078181510/TexasDemocraticResults+2.25.pdf
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2027019328571277334
Talarico is close to 50 - I think he’s going to pull it off.
Good to see a non-internal with a healthy lead for Talarico, though I wonder how representative of TX primary voters that racial breakdown actually is
Sometimes PPP’s cross tabs look a little out of whack, but they are usually pretty accurate and have been for years.
The Citizen Voting Age Population in Texas is around 14% Black and 31% Hispanic. If most Black voters are Dems, then around 28% Black is a fair guesstimate for the Dem primary electorate. However, I would expect the Hispanic proportion to be a bit higher.
CA Gov: Well respected PPIC Poll https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-february-2026/
Steve Hilton 14
Katie Porter 13
Chad Bianco 12
Eric Swalwell 11
Tom Steyer 10
US House generic ballot: D: 62; R 36
Lots more in link. 2/3-2/11 (1,049 LVs)
came here to post it and you got it 1st. Notably, there's a real separation between the five top-tier candidates all above 10 percent, and the lower tier candidates, none of which are above 5 percent. (Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Yee at 5 percent; Mahan, 3 percent; Thurmond, 2 percent; Calderon, 1 percent)
Why are all of the current and former statewide elected officials doing so poorly in this race? You’d think they’d be better known to voters across California than people like Swalwell.
With respect to the voters, I don't think most people can name all their statewide elected officials, especially those that are no longer serving. Swalwell has much more name recognition because of impeachment.
"According to a Gallup/Harris poll … a full 37 percent of American citizens are incapable of identifying their home country on a map of the United States."
https://ontd-political.livejournal.com/1839745.html
Ok, this is satire – but alarmingly close to the truth. It’s worth a read for a chuckle. And a groan!
Swalwell is constantly on TV/cable. As for the others... can your neighbor (not a political junkie like you and me) name a single former secretary of health and human services, or a former state controller or attorney general?
What I was gonna say haha
Betty Yee got the 2nd most delegates out of the CADem Convention just days ago, followed by Xavier Becerra. Eric Swalwell got the 1st most delegates.
However, the main issue I see has to do with their campaigns more than anything.
Though I agree that Cornyn is a better candidate, Paxton’s vulnerability as a candidate is overrated. He’s won every election despite Federal investigations and impeachment by the Texas Republican House. And a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist and pedo protester carried Texas overwhelmingly in 2024, 2020 and 2016.
Yes but this environment is closest to his 2018 first reelection, where he was held to a 3.56% margin against a true nobody and ofc wasn't the top of the ticket. And that was before his impeachment and without a long, divisive primary and runoff (he was unopposed for the nomination). Anyone saying it's a cakewalk à la Mark Robinson would be an idiot, but he's definitely the most vulnerable by far.
I'd say he's as vulnerable as Robinson if he's pitted against Talarico.
It Texas were North Carolina.
True. But I think Talarico has authenticity going for him the way Josh Stein and Roy Cooper do.
And if it is a Paxton v. Talarico match, it's going to be a clear choice between a clownishly corrupt serial adulterer and a young Ossoff type who's palatable to both progressives and moderate Rs.
Texas actually has a smaller percentage of rural voters. Hehehe
Buddy of mine once said “Texas is a place where people put on their cowboy boots, get in their pickup truck, and go to their cubicle in an office park”
No he's not, because Texas is ten points redder than NC.
I would happily take a Talarico win by 5 points if we’re shifting Stein’s 15-point win 10 points to the right in this scenario.
While I agree that Paxton is likely less vulnerable than many make him out to be (albeit a pricier candidate to get over the finish line than Cornyn), I do think voters treat federal races differently than statewide races. As much as we in the politico-sphere hear a lot about Paxton, I knew a lot of people while I was in Texas that couldn't tell me a single thing about any statewide elected official, including Paxton, other than Governor Abbott. They knew Ted Cruz, 'that other Republican senator', Abbott, and maybe their House rep. Everyone else was just a party-line vote.
How Justice Alito’s Retirement Might Upend the Midterms
https://archive.ph/tDItI
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/alito-retirement-might-upend-the-midterms.html
I can’t see the so called ‘Kavanaugh effect’ repeating itself this year though.
Me neither. Then again, several of the current judges (Sotomayor, Barrett, Jackson, Gorsuch) have released books and haven't retired.
True. It’s more the date of the release that’s eyebrow raising than the book itself
Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if he retires or doesn't. I hope he's stubborn enough to stay on through the November midterms.
Hell, I hope Alito is stubborn enough to stay on until the new Democratic-controlled Senate is sworn in!
What do people think about Tony Gonzales's seat as a reach district? His scandals are going to be real threats to him in the primary and a theoretical general, and Herrera could be seen as too extreme for a low double-digit Trump district. Katy Padilla Stout seems like a pretty solid candidate as well.
Herrera's advertising keeps touting his background as a gun manufacturer. That should not go over well in a district that includes Uvalde, site of a terrible school massacre.
the term "gun nut" gets thrown around often, but Herrera definitely qualifies. He is a YouTuber first and foremost, and has a channel with 4M subs, which is massive. He has no choice but to lean into it, its his whole lifestyle, personality, and paycheck. I really do hope it wont fit well, given, exactly that Uvalde is in this district.
He reminds me of Dave Bautista’s character in “Glass Onion,” and that character was aggressive satire
(On which note, “Wake Up Dead Man” is nearly as good as the original Knives Out, but not quite. Modest amounts of Daniel Craig is better than more)
GA-Gov:
https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/02/democratic-lawmaker-quits-race-for-georgia-governor/
State Rep. Ruwa Romman is out - running for State Senate instead (specifically the seat of fellow progressive Nabilah Parkes, who is running for Insurance Commissioner in GA).
Probably for the best, keeps a unique profile in office while maybe helping Esteves pick up her lane
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/latest-news-live-updates_n_699c2475e4b0f41da8d4babb/liveblog_69a08057e4b0b62154a86936
Huge report came out. Trump is considering using false claims of foreign electoral intervention to declare a national emergency and seize elections from the states.
This doesn’t seem legal? Is it? Will SCOTUS allow it if it gets there? If this does occur, is there any hope of stopping it?
As with any executive order ask what the legal mechanism/predicate is, and if there’s not an obvious one beyond “have Feds do this thing internally” then be skeptical it would work. It’s important to remember what EOs actually do, and don’t do.
This is blatantly illegal and lacks an enforcement mechanism like his previous EOs on elections.
Texas Democrat here. I am a typical Texan, which means I didn't read anything else here except the Texas part. Some thoughts on Abbott's political gambit.
1. Dave Carney and Greg Abbott may be making a fatal error here. These are the kind of ads that motivate their elderly, Fox-viewing Republican base. Democratic voters may be more independent minded than that. And they aren't Fox News folks, either. And, the younger generation (who is voting Democratic in this primary right now) are a lot more savvy about media manipulations than the elderly.
2. Texas is an open primary state. Therefore, that lack of affiliation can make it difficult to categorize the views of the party members. Carney and Abbott may be vastly over-estimating how enticing AOC, etc. actually is. In other words, it is quite possible Texas Democrats are not carbon copies of Massachusetts Democrats.
3. And to the extent Democratic voters are very liberal, Talarico is actually the more populist choice. He has embraced Mamdani and Sanders, etc.
Thank you for your insight!
"The Cornyn/NRSC JFC is airing a new ad accusing Ken Paxton of "sleeping around with a married mother of seven" and calling him a "wife-cheater and fraud."
Has there been another instance of a committee going so hard against a candidate who it may have to support in a few months?"
https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2026676061644173678