Last night's win of the PA state senate seat made me wonder: what states have the potential for us to gain a trifecta either this year or next year? We currently hold 15 trifectas.
Last night's win of the PA state senate seat made me wonder: what states have the potential for us to gain a trifecta either this year or next year? We currently hold 15 trifectas.
Ones that jump to my mind are:
- Regain MN state house, lost in 2024.
- Regain MI state senate, lost in 2024.
- Pickup VA governor.
- Pickup AZ legislature — we need 4 pickups in the house, 3 in the senate. We've come close before under the current maps.
- Pickup VT governor — only on the table if Scott retires. He's been in office since 2016. Retiring after 10 years isn't crazy.
- Pickup NV governor — I have no idea what we should expect there, NV hasn't been encouraging as of late, but isn't a disaster either.
Two states I don't know about:
- Only half of the PA state senate is up: how does the map look for that, is a pickup there on the table?
- What about the WI legislature maps, are those viable pickups?
We're not far behind in numbers for either state but I don't know enough about the maps.
WI, PA, MI and AZ could (re) gain Democratic trifectas next year. PA has had fairer state legislative maps in place (as well as WI) and with the Muskrat running rampant, could be a bigger wave election in 2026 than expected. Virginia looks pretty good to gain another Dem trifecta this year if the GOP candidate is another MAGA fool like Youngkin.
If that happens with all four states, state Dems in those states need to go hard and fast. They need to enshrine the National Popular Vote Compact in their state law so that the compact is in place for 2028.
They should try and get independent redistricting commissions in PA and WI if they win a rare trifecta in those states. Really don’t wanna risk Republicans having full control again there in a redistricting year.
If WI maintains its progressive state Supreme Court makeup after Tuesday, the state legislative maps will stay fair. They're drawn to give both parties a 50/50 shot of reclaiming the state legislature. I pray that if Dems win a trifecta in WI and/or PA next year, they start the process of putting Roe and an independent redistricting committee amendment on the ballots. That way the future composition of the courts or legislature won't gerrymander future district drawing.
Good lord - we win a trifecta and your first order of business is to put in the National Popular Vote unilateral disarmament agreement? Seriously??? How about protecting the right to abortion? How about putting fair redistricting commissions in place?
I want them to do all that. But the only way to enshrine fair redistricting commissions (apart from state statute) is by constitutional amendment to make it extremely hard for a future state GOP trifecta to undo. In Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania an amendment has to pass in two separate state legislative sessions (unless PA can get 67% of legislators in one session) before it can be put to voters… which would be 2028 at the earliest.
But redistricting in 2030 is not going to be good for the blue wall. Whoever wins the presidency in 2032 has to win a Southern swing state or two. That’s why getting the NPVC with 270 in place before redistricting in 2030 is so important.
Sorry, help me understand how the NPVC is going to do anything to help us win the Presidency? Frankly, it's not even going to make presidential elections more fair. It is straight up unilateral disarmament and I do not understand why anyone would push for it and for damn sure not at the expense of infinitely more important things.
I would rate the NV-GOV race as Tilt GOP/Tossup until anything changes. Democrats could have a shot here but it depends on how Joe Lombardo will be able to hold on as Governor.
Last night's win of the PA state senate seat made me wonder: what states have the potential for us to gain a trifecta either this year or next year? We currently hold 15 trifectas.
Ones that jump to my mind are:
- Regain MN state house, lost in 2024.
- Regain MI state senate, lost in 2024.
- Pickup VA governor.
- Pickup AZ legislature — we need 4 pickups in the house, 3 in the senate. We've come close before under the current maps.
- Pickup VT governor — only on the table if Scott retires. He's been in office since 2016. Retiring after 10 years isn't crazy.
- Pickup NV governor — I have no idea what we should expect there, NV hasn't been encouraging as of late, but isn't a disaster either.
Two states I don't know about:
- Only half of the PA state senate is up: how does the map look for that, is a pickup there on the table?
- What about the WI legislature maps, are those viable pickups?
We're not far behind in numbers for either state but I don't know enough about the maps.
Thoughts, ideas, corrections?
WI, PA, MI and AZ could (re) gain Democratic trifectas next year. PA has had fairer state legislative maps in place (as well as WI) and with the Muskrat running rampant, could be a bigger wave election in 2026 than expected. Virginia looks pretty good to gain another Dem trifecta this year if the GOP candidate is another MAGA fool like Youngkin.
If that happens with all four states, state Dems in those states need to go hard and fast. They need to enshrine the National Popular Vote Compact in their state law so that the compact is in place for 2028.
They should try and get independent redistricting commissions in PA and WI if they win a rare trifecta in those states. Really don’t wanna risk Republicans having full control again there in a redistricting year.
If WI maintains its progressive state Supreme Court makeup after Tuesday, the state legislative maps will stay fair. They're drawn to give both parties a 50/50 shot of reclaiming the state legislature. I pray that if Dems win a trifecta in WI and/or PA next year, they start the process of putting Roe and an independent redistricting committee amendment on the ballots. That way the future composition of the courts or legislature won't gerrymander future district drawing.
From your lips to God’s ears. Not having to worry about Republican gerrymanders again in these states is something we really need.
Good lord - we win a trifecta and your first order of business is to put in the National Popular Vote unilateral disarmament agreement? Seriously??? How about protecting the right to abortion? How about putting fair redistricting commissions in place?
I want them to do all that. But the only way to enshrine fair redistricting commissions (apart from state statute) is by constitutional amendment to make it extremely hard for a future state GOP trifecta to undo. In Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania an amendment has to pass in two separate state legislative sessions (unless PA can get 67% of legislators in one session) before it can be put to voters… which would be 2028 at the earliest.
But redistricting in 2030 is not going to be good for the blue wall. Whoever wins the presidency in 2032 has to win a Southern swing state or two. That’s why getting the NPVC with 270 in place before redistricting in 2030 is so important.
Sorry, help me understand how the NPVC is going to do anything to help us win the Presidency? Frankly, it's not even going to make presidential elections more fair. It is straight up unilateral disarmament and I do not understand why anyone would push for it and for damn sure not at the expense of infinitely more important things.
I would rate the NV-GOV race as Tilt GOP/Tossup until anything changes. Democrats could have a shot here but it depends on how Joe Lombardo will be able to hold on as Governor.
That said, Lombardo is no Brian Sandoval.