David Shor published an analysis that Trump would have won by 5 points if every registered voter turned out. Dems have done great recently in super low turnout specials.
Very hard to tell what exact turnout number is best for dems. Though lower overall is likely better.
David Shor published an analysis that Trump would have won by 5 points if every registered voter turned out. Dems have done great recently in super low turnout specials.
Very hard to tell what exact turnout number is best for dems. Though lower overall is likely better.
Yep. My question was directed to Jonathan. NBC's final poll--which came as close as any media poll to nailing it--also showed that low-propensity voters were overwhelmingly leaning Trump. Voters whose likelihood to vote ranked at 9 or 10 were tied in that poll. Voters whose likelihood to vote was ranked at 7 or 8 were going Harris +2. And the voters who were at 6 or less for likelihood to vote supported Trump +16. Shor's findings were absolutely consistent with that.
imo Millions of Biden voters stayed home; Harris lost by about 250,000 in 3 states that matter; i contend city voters turned out in lots fewer % than rural voters; so, imo the above analysis is flawed; it is a debatable topic in my view
Yes but overall turnout was down and Harris lost a more Biden votes than Trump gained from 2020 (millions of blue state D voters stayed home) . . so I don't think anyone can make a clear cut definitive statement either way. I think if we'd had 2020-level turnout Harris would've concievably won the PV if not the EC.
im currently watching 4 basketball games; so, if im slow in responding, its not that im ignoring you or anything like that(perhaps we can take this discussion into the weekend open thread?)
David Shor published an analysis that Trump would have won by 5 points if every registered voter turned out. Dems have done great recently in super low turnout specials.
Very hard to tell what exact turnout number is best for dems. Though lower overall is likely better.
i dont believe that analysis at all
Why? Because your bias tells you so?
Trump turns out nonregular voters. That fact is by now indisputable no matter how much you don't want to hear it.
since i have zero bias, i have zero idea what you are talking about; but, i think that analysis is clearly flawed
just because YOU state something doesnt make it a fact; just sayin
Based on what?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/23/us/politics/trump-turning-point-arizona-2024-election.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/presidential-polls-2024-battleground-tracker/
https://abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-trump/story?id=109090626
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/02/25/10xvotes-friends-relatives-get-out-conservative-vote/80219807007/
Yep. My question was directed to Jonathan. NBC's final poll--which came as close as any media poll to nailing it--also showed that low-propensity voters were overwhelmingly leaning Trump. Voters whose likelihood to vote ranked at 9 or 10 were tied in that poll. Voters whose likelihood to vote was ranked at 7 or 8 were going Harris +2. And the voters who were at 6 or less for likelihood to vote supported Trump +16. Shor's findings were absolutely consistent with that.
imo Millions of Biden voters stayed home; Harris lost by about 250,000 in 3 states that matter; i contend city voters turned out in lots fewer % than rural voters; so, imo the above analysis is flawed; it is a debatable topic in my view
Trump picked up 3 million more voters between 2020 and 2024.
Data and polling both tell us they were in a large part low propensity.
Yes but overall turnout was down and Harris lost a more Biden votes than Trump gained from 2020 (millions of blue state D voters stayed home) . . so I don't think anyone can make a clear cut definitive statement either way. I think if we'd had 2020-level turnout Harris would've concievably won the PV if not the EC.
agreed; its debatable, not FACT, as stated above
im talking about the ones who stayed on their couch
im currently watching 4 basketball games; so, if im slow in responding, its not that im ignoring you or anything like that(perhaps we can take this discussion into the weekend open thread?)
In Wisconsin?