This article makes an interesting point: "According to CBC's Poll Tracker, the Liberals led by Carney are leading with 37.7 per cent, compared to Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives who stand just below that at 37.4 per cent support. [However,] the Liberal voter base is spread more evenly across the country, which gives them a distinct adva…
This article makes an interesting point: "According to CBC's Poll Tracker, the Liberals led by Carney are leading with 37.7 per cent, compared to Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives who stand just below that at 37.4 per cent support. [However,] the Liberal voter base is spread more evenly across the country, which gives them a distinct advantage in the number of seats they could win over the Conservatives who have concentrated support in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
"The CBC Poll Tracker suggests that if a vote were to take place now, the Liberals could secure 176 seats to the Conservatives 133. (The Canadian Parliament has a total of 443 seats: 338 in the House of Commons and 105 in the Senate."
(The article does not address the Liberals’ chance of building a ruling coalition.)
176 would give it a majority. But yes, because so much of the Conservative vote is in Alberta and Saskatchewan, its vote is very inefficient. That's why even though the Conservatives received more votes in 2021, the Liberals had more seats.
Certainly an open question is how much Trump, with his insane statements and downright hostile policies against our northern neighbor, will unwittingly aid and abet Canada’s Liberals.
It's like the Speaker of the House is also the head of the executive. The upper house in Canada is just a royal relic and a figurehead body.
One thing I like about Parliamentary system is that it doesn't have deadlocks. If you have the leader of a party promise Universal Health Care and he wins a majority in the elections. His policies and mandate will surely be passed. You vote for the legislative to elect the executive there. The Cabinet ministers are also legislators so Bills have a smoother course.
Obviously, it has its own cons and the Presidential system also has its own pros as seen by us.
Since the legislators and the Ministers, including the PM sink and swim together (i.e their fates are tied), you also won't have a Lieberman or Sinema.
The Conservative party is the only major party on the right while the left leaning vote is divided between the Liberal Party, the New Democrats, the Quebec Block and the Greens. Also the Conservative party wins much of Alberta and Saskatchewan by 30-40%. Therefore, for the Conservatives to get a majority they need to win the popular vote by a few points nationwide. They also face the problem that no other parties are a natural coalition partner, while the Liberals usually align with the New Democrats, the Quebec Block and the Greens.
. How Trump Brought a Divided Canada Together – Against Him
"It is perhaps the ultimate demonstration of Trump’s unmitigated ignorance that he may have ruined the prospects of the most Trumpian politician in Canadian history. Trump’s unjustified and inexcusable attack on Canada’s sovereignty has reversed the very political trends that have developed in Canada over the last several years that might have been to his advantage."
This article makes an interesting point: "According to CBC's Poll Tracker, the Liberals led by Carney are leading with 37.7 per cent, compared to Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives who stand just below that at 37.4 per cent support. [However,] the Liberal voter base is spread more evenly across the country, which gives them a distinct advantage in the number of seats they could win over the Conservatives who have concentrated support in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
"The CBC Poll Tracker suggests that if a vote were to take place now, the Liberals could secure 176 seats to the Conservatives 133. (The Canadian Parliament has a total of 443 seats: 338 in the House of Commons and 105 in the Senate."
(The article does not address the Liberals’ chance of building a ruling coalition.)
176 would give it a majority. But yes, because so much of the Conservative vote is in Alberta and Saskatchewan, its vote is very inefficient. That's why even though the Conservatives received more votes in 2021, the Liberals had more seats.
I thought that was 176 of 443 – not of 338?
Certainly an open question is how much Trump, with his insane statements and downright hostile policies against our northern neighbor, will unwittingly aid and abet Canada’s Liberals.
No. The Senate is appointed and basically a figurehead.
Ah, thanks for clarifying. So nothing like the bicameral American Congress? Appointed by whom?
It's like the Speaker of the House is also the head of the executive. The upper house in Canada is just a royal relic and a figurehead body.
One thing I like about Parliamentary system is that it doesn't have deadlocks. If you have the leader of a party promise Universal Health Care and he wins a majority in the elections. His policies and mandate will surely be passed. You vote for the legislative to elect the executive there. The Cabinet ministers are also legislators so Bills have a smoother course.
Obviously, it has its own cons and the Presidential system also has its own pros as seen by us.
Since the legislators and the Ministers, including the PM sink and swim together (i.e their fates are tied), you also won't have a Lieberman or Sinema.
By the Governor General at the recommendation of the prime minister.
The Conservative party is the only major party on the right while the left leaning vote is divided between the Liberal Party, the New Democrats, the Quebec Block and the Greens. Also the Conservative party wins much of Alberta and Saskatchewan by 30-40%. Therefore, for the Conservatives to get a majority they need to win the popular vote by a few points nationwide. They also face the problem that no other parties are a natural coalition partner, while the Liberals usually align with the New Democrats, the Quebec Block and the Greens.
. How Trump Brought a Divided Canada Together – Against Him
"It is perhaps the ultimate demonstration of Trump’s unmitigated ignorance that he may have ruined the prospects of the most Trumpian politician in Canadian history. Trump’s unjustified and inexcusable attack on Canada’s sovereignty has reversed the very political trends that have developed in Canada over the last several years that might have been to his advantage."
– New Republic, 20 March 2025
https://newrepublic.com/article/192484/trump-killed-canadian-right-maga-ambitions
This election the House will have 343 seats, 172 being a majority.