The North American trade War that is happening for literally zero reason kicks off tomorrow, officially. Equity markets have slid sharply on this news.
I sincerely wonder when the masters of the universe start trying to get GOPers in Congress to intervene with the White House because we’re about to speedrun an economic crisis at this rate
The North American trade War that is happening for literally zero reason kicks off tomorrow, officially. Equity markets have slid sharply on this news.
I sincerely wonder when the masters of the universe start trying to get GOPers in Congress to intervene with the White House because we’re about to speedrun an economic crisis at this rate
(cross-posting from today's Bulwark/JVL thread, it fits here):
What if even wrecking the economy (contraction/recession) is part of the plan? Shrink the pool of resources available, get double digit unemployment...and people really WILL start shooting one another to get theirs.
They (I think) know they need that level of societal breakdown to "solve" the 52/48 problem (ie, no matter how good "our" candidate, or how bad "theirs" is - it's almost impossible for a modern, national election to be more overwhelming than 52-48).
In the Trump view, King of a heap of ashes beats "lame duck" of a thriving democracy. And I think Vance represents the cohort that wants a new Dark Age, to undo the Enlightenment. This is how you get it.
I’m not entirely closed to such thoughts. That said, I think Occam’s razor suggests that Trump really actually does not understand tariffs and really truly believes all the incorrect things he says about them, up to and including his view that they exclusively harm other countries as a punitive tool.
I’d note that Musk isn’t pro-tariff, by all accounts, nor are most of the other SV edgelords usually associated with accelerationist thought. So while there’s some people in power who believe some pretty grim out-there stuff, I do think that’s it’s own thing separate from tariffs, which Trump has had a boner for since the 80s
There's definitely some folks, mainly the techno-fascists, that would welcome that, but the majority of very rich people don't want to roll the dice on major financial instability and recession to usher in some new feudalist age . . .they do great in the current system!
What's transpiring will be a classic "old money vs new money" battle and while they've taken some major licks in the Trump era, I think one should never count out old money's ultimate power.
There’s a reason why old money becomes old money and it’s not by fucking with the system that made them rich.
Powerful incumbents, whether institutional or personal, will fight to the death to preserve their power, influence and wealth. Musk in particular imo is playing with fire pissing off some very, very powerful constituencies
I wonder whether we are seeing a sort of civil war within the plutocracy? On one side, we have billionaires who favor the traditional "Shear the Sheep" model, and, on the other, billionaires who embrace the "Skin the Sheep" model.
I'm paraphrasing something I read on a Reddit economic thread (the Reddit economic threads are more intelligent than I would have thought) last week - the economic train has derailed, the kaboose just doesn't know it yet
We're going to see if the ultra-wealthy care more about their ideology or their money. It's long been assumed that they picked the ideology for the sake of money. What we've been seeing these past few years would suggest there's a good number of them that are OK being not as insanely wealthy if it means their political views are ascendant.
I'm also at the point where I'm assuming the worst from everyone on the right half of politics right now, so maybe I'm too pessimistic about them.
Except... This level of inequality is unsustainable and their views are extremely unpopular at a national level. What happens when you force that on people AND give them nothing left to lose?
Shit like Luigi happens. And as much as I think the transformation of his vigilantism into a populist meme is pretty gross, I don’t think he’ll be the last case
Which will cause a lot of collateral damage. I joke all the time about guillotines and Luigi and stuff but the end game of all of that is pretty terrifying.
With the level of power that modern states can wield it's not inconceivable that the ultra-wealthy could more or less survive complete social upheaval in a way that they could not in 18th century France. I doubt they're looking at things through that lens though.
People, including the wealthy, largely do not consider the potential for disaster in their decision making.
If by unsustainable you mean that there will be working class revolt against the rich when the cuts and inflation set in, think of another possibility--the working class turns on itself, as the wealthy want them to. Trump/Musk/Miller will claim that minorities are to blame for everything, and it will pit the WWC against every other working class group. What MAGA wants, more than anything, is to preserve whiteness, and T/M/M will give it to them, at least rhetorically.
The North American trade War that is happening for literally zero reason kicks off tomorrow, officially. Equity markets have slid sharply on this news.
I sincerely wonder when the masters of the universe start trying to get GOPers in Congress to intervene with the White House because we’re about to speedrun an economic crisis at this rate
(cross-posting from today's Bulwark/JVL thread, it fits here):
What if even wrecking the economy (contraction/recession) is part of the plan? Shrink the pool of resources available, get double digit unemployment...and people really WILL start shooting one another to get theirs.
They (I think) know they need that level of societal breakdown to "solve" the 52/48 problem (ie, no matter how good "our" candidate, or how bad "theirs" is - it's almost impossible for a modern, national election to be more overwhelming than 52-48).
In the Trump view, King of a heap of ashes beats "lame duck" of a thriving democracy. And I think Vance represents the cohort that wants a new Dark Age, to undo the Enlightenment. This is how you get it.
I’m not entirely closed to such thoughts. That said, I think Occam’s razor suggests that Trump really actually does not understand tariffs and really truly believes all the incorrect things he says about them, up to and including his view that they exclusively harm other countries as a punitive tool.
Thanks. I needed talking off the ledge a bit. It's hard when so many foundational pillars of trust have crumbled.
I’d note that Musk isn’t pro-tariff, by all accounts, nor are most of the other SV edgelords usually associated with accelerationist thought. So while there’s some people in power who believe some pretty grim out-there stuff, I do think that’s it’s own thing separate from tariffs, which Trump has had a boner for since the 80s
There's definitely some folks, mainly the techno-fascists, that would welcome that, but the majority of very rich people don't want to roll the dice on major financial instability and recession to usher in some new feudalist age . . .they do great in the current system!
What's transpiring will be a classic "old money vs new money" battle and while they've taken some major licks in the Trump era, I think one should never count out old money's ultimate power.
There’s a reason why old money becomes old money and it’s not by fucking with the system that made them rich.
Powerful incumbents, whether institutional or personal, will fight to the death to preserve their power, influence and wealth. Musk in particular imo is playing with fire pissing off some very, very powerful constituencies
I wonder whether we are seeing a sort of civil war within the plutocracy? On one side, we have billionaires who favor the traditional "Shear the Sheep" model, and, on the other, billionaires who embrace the "Skin the Sheep" model.
To some extent, sure. I think that will only get more pointed even if we never quite see it ourselves
I'm paraphrasing something I read on a Reddit economic thread (the Reddit economic threads are more intelligent than I would have thought) last week - the economic train has derailed, the kaboose just doesn't know it yet
We're going to see if the ultra-wealthy care more about their ideology or their money. It's long been assumed that they picked the ideology for the sake of money. What we've been seeing these past few years would suggest there's a good number of them that are OK being not as insanely wealthy if it means their political views are ascendant.
I'm also at the point where I'm assuming the worst from everyone on the right half of politics right now, so maybe I'm too pessimistic about them.
Except... This level of inequality is unsustainable and their views are extremely unpopular at a national level. What happens when you force that on people AND give them nothing left to lose?
Shit like Luigi happens. And as much as I think the transformation of his vigilantism into a populist meme is pretty gross, I don’t think he’ll be the last case
There was a reason the French Revolution took place.
Exactly my point
Which will cause a lot of collateral damage. I joke all the time about guillotines and Luigi and stuff but the end game of all of that is pretty terrifying.
Conditions were many magnitudes worse in France. Like it makes living as a regular citizen in the USSR look like a life of plenty in comparison.
I never accused them of being smart or caring.
With the level of power that modern states can wield it's not inconceivable that the ultra-wealthy could more or less survive complete social upheaval in a way that they could not in 18th century France. I doubt they're looking at things through that lens though.
People, including the wealthy, largely do not consider the potential for disaster in their decision making.
If by unsustainable you mean that there will be working class revolt against the rich when the cuts and inflation set in, think of another possibility--the working class turns on itself, as the wealthy want them to. Trump/Musk/Miller will claim that minorities are to blame for everything, and it will pit the WWC against every other working class group. What MAGA wants, more than anything, is to preserve whiteness, and T/M/M will give it to them, at least rhetorically.
I think, to a degree, the ultra wealthy are planning on buying assets cheap if/when everything falls apart.
Such as federally owned land and buildings, oil drilling rights and mineral extraction rights, which Trump is eager to sell off in return for favors.