Landry got spanked by a federal judge over the weekend who declared his racist law unconstitutional and allowed the duly elected Calvin Duncan to assume office today.
I’ve got high hopes that the people of this country are disgusted with the racism (among other undesirable attributes) of elected republicans and show up in force for the midterms. 🤞
Thank you for your reporting. It’s become my first read, and often my only read, of the day.
I'm hoping that the apathetic voters (those who claim they're "above" politics or claim their vote doesn't matter) are jolted by Rs eager to draw their voices out of existence.
Tomorrow is primary day in Indiana. Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Comptroller will be elected this year, but the candidates are determined by party convention. We vote for delegates. The problem is that there is no information anywhere on which candidates for these offices the individual delegates support.
Here is what the Indiana Chronicle states: "Both the Democratic and Republican conventions this year appear headed to spirited contests for the Secretary of State nominations. If you care who your chosen party nominates for Secretary of State, you need to figure out which state convention candidates on your ballot are pledged to your preference. This is no mean feat, because there is no public source for this granular information. Accordingly, if you want to vote for like-minded state convention delegates, you need to call the campaign of your preferred Secretary of State candidate and get guidance on which convention delegates on your ballot support them."
And the Indiana Democratic party wonders why Democratic turnout is so low. I heard both candidates for Secretary of State speak, and i know which one I prefer, but who of the 11 delegates on the ballot, ten of whom would be elected, supports that person?
I have also been unable to find more than minimal information on the two Democratic primary candidates for the 2nd district. I found a detailed platform from the Independent who understands that he should work to earn votes, and whose views align with mine.
My fear is that Bayh loses at the convention, and with it, our best shot at beating Morales. Please tell me that’s a low chance of happening? Potter cant win with $40,000 in fundraising.
The "logic" of the Roberts Court is truly sickening. It's unconstitutional to use race as a factor in preventing discrimination, but the Jim Crowers are allowed to use race so long as it isn't their "primary" motivation. Which of course is nigh impossible to prove, since they can just say that they're motivated by partisanship, which is totally fine, even encouraged, despite the fact that partisan Gerrymanders are highly pernicious to Democracy. It really feels like the Calvinball Court.
“The way to stop discrimination (against Black people) on the basis of race is to stop discriminating (against white people) on the basis of race.” - John Roberts
It in effect restored the 1980 Bolden test that Congress overturned in 1982. An activist court to the core. Much like the court in the 1880s that brought a halt to Reconstruction permitting the confederacy to “redeem” the southern states
And of course, Gorsuch appeared on this morning's "Fox and Friends" to talk about America 250 (ironically the weekend after Callais). If the infamous 20 cases that asshole decided in the nine years on the court didn't show his political alliances, his Fox appearances do.
I think NC deserves its own tier; the R looks DOA. The problem with "consistent lead" in ME is the same thing could have been said 6 years ago. Still 2nd in the rankings though, as it's a blue-leaning state in a strong D year.
I'd rank Iowa 4th. Unlike Texas, there is at least some recent history of success, even if it was back to Obama, and unlike Ohio, the polls are actually promising. Ohio, I fear, may be going the way of West Virginia, but Iowa could revert to closer to Minn/Wisc like it was for years. Texas is a mini-Florida to me. I'll believe it when I see it. But like Georgia, once it happens once (in a significant race), it could open the floodgates to true purple statehood.
any other cycle beyond this one I would agree with you, that said I dont understand anyone's fascination with the risky centrist option (stevens) or the risky leftist option (sayed) when there's the mainstream democratic option (mcmorrow)
I do think McMorrow winning the primary would not alienate too many people. I occasionally peruse left wing parts of Bluesky and I remember some Abdul supporters saying they’d be alright with McMorrow winning — Stevens was the one they didn’t like.
Wellman is associated with The Bulwark, so he's already pretty accustomed to national politics. MO-2 was once a swing seat in the St. Louis suburbs (think rich and high education) that they drew to be deep red in 2022 and even redder now.
Landry got spanked by a federal judge over the weekend who declared his racist law unconstitutional and allowed the duly elected Calvin Duncan to assume office today.
https://www.nola.com/news/politics/calvin-duncan-orleans-clerk-ruling/article_721cb604-c963-4830-bf1b-12a4cc1a2816.html
That Georgia poll: 6 months later and the top 2 both lose ground while Dooley stays flat (moe). Lol. Hope all those undecideds vote D.
I’ve got high hopes that the people of this country are disgusted with the racism (among other undesirable attributes) of elected republicans and show up in force for the midterms. 🤞
Thank you for your reporting. It’s become my first read, and often my only read, of the day.
I'm hoping that the apathetic voters (those who claim they're "above" politics or claim their vote doesn't matter) are jolted by Rs eager to draw their voices out of existence.
Sigh, they will be this year, and maybe in 2028, but the U.S. is likely fucked for the medium and long term. It's still worth fighting for, though.
Tomorrow is primary day in Indiana. Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Comptroller will be elected this year, but the candidates are determined by party convention. We vote for delegates. The problem is that there is no information anywhere on which candidates for these offices the individual delegates support.
Here is what the Indiana Chronicle states: "Both the Democratic and Republican conventions this year appear headed to spirited contests for the Secretary of State nominations. If you care who your chosen party nominates for Secretary of State, you need to figure out which state convention candidates on your ballot are pledged to your preference. This is no mean feat, because there is no public source for this granular information. Accordingly, if you want to vote for like-minded state convention delegates, you need to call the campaign of your preferred Secretary of State candidate and get guidance on which convention delegates on your ballot support them."
Call the campaign? Every voter?
https://indianacitizen.org/from-the-publisher-may-their-memory-be-a-blessing/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=new-stories-from-the-indiana-citizen-40
And the Indiana Democratic party wonders why Democratic turnout is so low. I heard both candidates for Secretary of State speak, and i know which one I prefer, but who of the 11 delegates on the ballot, ten of whom would be elected, supports that person?
I have also been unable to find more than minimal information on the two Democratic primary candidates for the 2nd district. I found a detailed platform from the Independent who understands that he should work to earn votes, and whose views align with mine.
How can we fix this system?
My fear is that Bayh loses at the convention, and with it, our best shot at beating Morales. Please tell me that’s a low chance of happening? Potter cant win with $40,000 in fundraising.
using the extremely unscientific method of "keeping an eye out for lawn signs", Jamee Decio is probably going to win the IN-2 primary.
The "logic" of the Roberts Court is truly sickening. It's unconstitutional to use race as a factor in preventing discrimination, but the Jim Crowers are allowed to use race so long as it isn't their "primary" motivation. Which of course is nigh impossible to prove, since they can just say that they're motivated by partisanship, which is totally fine, even encouraged, despite the fact that partisan Gerrymanders are highly pernicious to Democracy. It really feels like the Calvinball Court.
The "logic" of the Roberts court:
“The way to stop discrimination (against Black people) on the basis of race is to stop discriminating (against white people) on the basis of race.” - John Roberts
It in effect restored the 1980 Bolden test that Congress overturned in 1982. An activist court to the core. Much like the court in the 1880s that brought a halt to Reconstruction permitting the confederacy to “redeem” the southern states
And of course, Gorsuch appeared on this morning's "Fox and Friends" to talk about America 250 (ironically the weekend after Callais). If the infamous 20 cases that asshole decided in the nine years on the court didn't show his political alliances, his Fox appearances do.
I have now updated my potential flips for the Senate:
1. NC
———————
2. ME
3. AK
———————
4. TX
5. IA
6. OH
7. FL
———————
8. NE
9. KS
10. MS
———————
11. SC
12. MT
Why Ohio ranked so low?
I find it worrying the lack of traction in polling Brown has whilst still trailing.
If we're doing tiers:
Dems with consistent leads in blue/purple states:
1. NC
2. ME
Dems with slight leads in red states:
3. AK
4. TX
Dems slightly trailing in marginally competitive states:
5. OH
6. IA
Independents competitive in red states:
7. NE
8. MT
Never count on Florida and you'll never be disappointed:
9. FL
Reach states:
10. KS
11. SC
I think NC deserves its own tier; the R looks DOA. The problem with "consistent lead" in ME is the same thing could have been said 6 years ago. Still 2nd in the rankings though, as it's a blue-leaning state in a strong D year.
I'd rank Iowa 4th. Unlike Texas, there is at least some recent history of success, even if it was back to Obama, and unlike Ohio, the polls are actually promising. Ohio, I fear, may be going the way of West Virginia, but Iowa could revert to closer to Minn/Wisc like it was for years. Texas is a mini-Florida to me. I'll believe it when I see it. But like Georgia, once it happens once (in a significant race), it could open the floodgates to true purple statehood.
I'd add that the R runoff still hasn't happened in Texas. I'll give the polling there more weight once they have had a chance to consolidate the vote
LOL at "Never count on FL and you'll never be disappointed".
So true, unfortunately...
Interesting, the prediction markets have Brown around 60% 😱
Don't post about "prediction markets" here. Please delete.
I’d put Texas 6th and Nebraska 7th.
I’d rate the races like this
1. NC
—————
2. ME
3. AK
—————
4. TX
—————
5. IA
6. OH
7. NE
—————
8. FL
9. KS
—————
10. SC
11. MT
12. MS
—————
13. KY
14. LA
I think we’re ahead in the first 4 already and will win the first 7 in the end.
That's very optimistic. I'm very skeptical about NE. But if the bottom falls out of the economy, everything down to KS could flip.
I'd put a line between IA and OH and MT above both SC and MS
Is it just me who is worried on MI flipping this election cycle?
any other cycle beyond this one I would agree with you, that said I dont understand anyone's fascination with the risky centrist option (stevens) or the risky leftist option (sayed) when there's the mainstream democratic option (mcmorrow)
I do think McMorrow winning the primary would not alienate too many people. I occasionally peruse left wing parts of Bluesky and I remember some Abdul supporters saying they’d be alright with McMorrow winning — Stevens was the one they didn’t like.
If they nominate the wrong candidate yes.
Inside the Quiet Republican Effort to Flip Fetterman
As the Pennsylvania Democrat increasingly is isolated within his own party, Republicans are quietly trying to win him over.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/05/04/fetterman-switch-parties-republican-00904177
Do you have anything on the Fred Wellman race in MO-02?
I haven't seen his name mentioned. What would you like (us) to know about that race?
Wellman is associated with The Bulwark, so he's already pretty accustomed to national politics. MO-2 was once a swing seat in the St. Louis suburbs (think rich and high education) that they drew to be deep red in 2022 and even redder now.
The Florida meathead just signed the rigged Congressional maps. Marc Elias is preparing to file suit against him.