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Leading Off
Texas
All five districts Republicans targeted when they gerrymandered Texas’ congressional map at Donald Trump’s behest last year nonetheless remain in play, including two seats that had once looked all but impossible for Democrats to hold.
A new poll from the University of Houston shows Republican Alex Mealer with a modest 48-42 advantage over Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the open 9th District, a constituency Donald Trump would have carried in a 59-40 landslide just two years ago. Respondents, however, now give Trump a negative 46-53 favorability rating.
And deep-pocketed Republican outfits were already treating the 9th, which now includes the eastern reaches of Houston’s Harris County and areas further east, as competitive even before UH released this survey.
Conservative groups have spent more than $1.1 million since the start of September to boost Mealer, an Army veteran who lost a tight 2022 race to lead Harris County and then spent the better part of a year unsuccessfully challenging the result in court.
Democratic organizations, by contrast, have deployed just over $300,000 to help Gutierrez, an environmental advocate. That sum, though, is still notable given that just about every political observer anticipated Republicans would easily flip this seat following their adoption of the state’s new map last year.
Facing the prospect of campaigning on such daunting turf, Democratic Rep. Al Green opted to run for the heavily Democratic 18th District rather than seek reelection in the 9th, which shared little more than a number with his old constituency. However, he ultimately lost the Democratic primary to fellow Rep. Christian Menefee.
Meanwhile, Gutierrez and five other Democrats campaigned to defend the now-open 9th, but her decisive 54-16 win in the primary generated little attention.
The GOP contest, however, was an expensive fight that continued for nearly three more months after no one claimed a majority in the first round of voting. Mealer, who had Trump’s endorsement, finally claimed the prize just after Memorial Day with her landslide 68-32 over state Rep. Briscoe Cain, Gov. Greg Abbott’s pick.
Mealer’s frontrunner status was reaffirmed this summer when fundraising data revealed she’d outraised Gutierrez by a huge margin, though new reports are due on Thursday.
Trump’s declining approval ratings, however, have put the GOP on the defensive in seats across the country that seemed secure just months ago. And his weak standing with Latinos, a constituency that swung hard in his direction during the last two presidential races, could pose an especially serious risk for his party in districts like the 9th, where Latinos make up over half of the voting-age population.
The 32nd District, another open seat that the GOP seemed to have redrawn into an automatic flip, may also not be a sure thing for Republicans.