I don't think WI Republicans are going to run a conservative candidate next year. They'll probably target the court after 2028 and bank on R anger at the next Democratic president.
Thank you for the link to the CBC. After reading the article, I went on to listen to the full Address to Joint Session of Congress by King Charles. I loved how he basically said that Trumpian Republican and Isolationism approaches to governing policies were all wrong. Since, yesterday I spent trying to get caught up on my housework and missed any coverage by our news, this complete Address this morning was music to my ears! Again, thank you for the link!
Opinion Diagnostics (a GOP-leaning outlet) has Roy Cooper leading by 50.4% to Michael Whatley's 41.4%. They surveyed 830 NC voters from April 21st-24th, with a margin error of 3.5 percentage points.
If the GOP polling has Cooper leading Whatley by almost 10 points and it holds through the summer, it's going to be a blowout for Republicans across the board.
The 2nd Black-majority district as drawn is struck down. Section 2 of the VRA remains. It's an erosion, but not what some were fearing. They made it harder to challenge maps under Gingles, but still allow private action.
Does it actually do anything, according to the Supreme Court, or is it effectively a dead letter, as it seems from this decision (having not seen the purported reasoning)?
They made it harder to challenge stuff under Gingles, but as I recall that was one of the "good" outcome scenarios for this case. Also, they didn't strike private action I believe.
Oh, you know what, I misread this special session announcement. It's to comply with the prior decision that the state SC was racially gerrymandered and needed to be redrawn. But they waited until Callais to do as little as possible.
I commented a misread, but I think 1) 2028 redraws are ofc still about to happen and 2) I really think people underestimate the willingness to reopen filing deadlines if they really want to. While I do think it's unlikely, people seem to write it off as a total impossibility.
I understand the district not being required by the VRA, since the African-American areas of the district are not contiguous and the district is not compact, but how do they claim the district is illegal?
Question: with the decision now out, what, if any, recourse do we have? Is there anything we could do to negate the GOP’s inevitable gutting of every Dem district in the South?
Not every district. As mentioned above, some seats are clearly compact, like in Mississippi. In Georgia, it would surely be a dummymander to dismantle more than 1 or 2 seats. Florida, of course, is ongoing.
All told, a very not bad result for Dems considering where things could've gone. The decision will protect nearly all existing VRA districts. What it targeted were seats like AL and LA with "you have to create a district if you can" scenarios. DeSantis's new map is actually illegal under the new standard.
MI-Sen: CNN is reporting that Mallory McMorrow deleted tweets where, among other things, she referenced having voted in California despite being a Michigan resident (McMorrow never ran for public office until 2018):
This is from the same CNN reporter who got Trump elected in 2024 with the transgender prison inmate story against Kamala Harris, and, not surprisingly, most of it is a nothingburger except for where she may have committed election fraud.
On Callais, I know Republicans probably could easily draw out a few more seats in much of the south, but would they really risk doing that in places like Georgia, where Democrats look primed to have a banner year, or Texas where they already might have overextended themselves?
They can probably draw out Sanford Bishop, but maybe they’d be deterred from doing so if Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan win the GASC races in a couple weeks. If they do, we can flip the court in 2028. I can’t imagine they would want to unpack Atlanta any further.
As for Texas, that map seems like it was built in a house of cards of temporary good hispanic numbers for Republicans. If the Talarico +30 numbers with hispanic polls are accurate, that map is going to crumble.
This was in the digest at one point, IIRC
It’s weird that Colon is running for the SCOWI. Maybe he thinks he can bring a male progressive perspective to the court?
Wouldn't it be amusing if Republicans didn't run anyone, and the election was between Brunette and Colon?
I don't think WI Republicans are going to run a conservative candidate next year. They'll probably target the court after 2028 and bank on R anger at the next Democratic president.
It’d be nice to have a liberal candidate from outside of Milwaukee or Dane for once. That’s why I prefer Brunette.
News from the North: Remember when Trump was going to strangle Canada economically and we didn't have anything the US needed?
Thanks Trump!
Higher oil prices set to give feds a 'windfall' in next budget | CBC News https://share.google/tiRPEC73m1z75scFb
Thank you for the link to the CBC. After reading the article, I went on to listen to the full Address to Joint Session of Congress by King Charles. I loved how he basically said that Trumpian Republican and Isolationism approaches to governing policies were all wrong. Since, yesterday I spent trying to get caught up on my housework and missed any coverage by our news, this complete Address this morning was music to my ears! Again, thank you for the link!
Opinion Diagnostics (a GOP-leaning outlet) has Roy Cooper leading by 50.4% to Michael Whatley's 41.4%. They surveyed 830 NC voters from April 21st-24th, with a margin error of 3.5 percentage points.
https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/cooper-leads-whatley-in-us-senate-race-new-nc-polls-april-2026/
If the GOP polling has Cooper leading Whatley by almost 10 points and it holds through the summer, it's going to be a blowout for Republicans across the board.
Biggest thing is Cooper is over 50%.
It's likely higher with D-leaning pollsters.
Another TX Sen poll Talarico up https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2049474634957893944?s=20
Tough to get excited with undecideds so high. When Talarico is clearing at least 48% that's another story.
It looks like the Libertarian candidate is polling up to 7 in both scenarios as well.
Which is enough for a GOP candidate to win by a plurality.
Emerson generic Ds by 10. https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2049438477582737768?s=20
Please let this be an indication of Dem blowout in November.
*crosses fingers*
Callais is out https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-109_21o3.pdf
The 2nd Black-majority district as drawn is struck down. Section 2 of the VRA remains. It's an erosion, but not what some were fearing. They made it harder to challenge maps under Gingles, but still allow private action.
Does it actually do anything, according to the Supreme Court, or is it effectively a dead letter, as it seems from this decision (having not seen the purported reasoning)?
No, the VRA is not struck down here, just the Louisiana district.
They made it harder to challenge stuff under Gingles, but as I recall that was one of the "good" outcome scenarios for this case. Also, they didn't strike private action I believe.
I don't think that was at issue.
Since Louisiana's filing deadline has passed, a redraw won't come until 2028, no?
I believe so yes
I can't tell. Altio's opinion is endless, but I haven't seen a reference to Purcell.
Does this give MS leeway to eliminate Thompson's district in three weeks like they plan, or does it constrain them enough to save him?
MS-02 isn’t particularly gerrymandered.
Oh, you know what, I misread this special session announcement. It's to comply with the prior decision that the state SC was racially gerrymandered and needed to be redrawn. But they waited until Callais to do as little as possible.
https://x.com/mcpli/status/2047798444136210812
Filing deadline passed in Mississippi months ago.
As did the primary. Which relates to my question above about Louisiana
I commented a misread, but I think 1) 2028 redraws are ofc still about to happen and 2) I really think people underestimate the willingness to reopen filing deadlines if they really want to. While I do think it's unlikely, people seem to write it off as a total impossibility.
That wasn't my question. Does the VRA actually have any force anymore?
Yes. "As properly understood," to quote Alito.
I believe this was more or less Paleo’s prediction (they’re usually not bad at divining court stuff) along with a number of pundits
On what grounds was it struck down?
I understand the district not being required by the VRA, since the African-American areas of the district are not contiguous and the district is not compact, but how do they claim the district is illegal?
Question: with the decision now out, what, if any, recourse do we have? Is there anything we could do to negate the GOP’s inevitable gutting of every Dem district in the South?
Not every district. As mentioned above, some seats are clearly compact, like in Mississippi. In Georgia, it would surely be a dummymander to dismantle more than 1 or 2 seats. Florida, of course, is ongoing.
All told, a very not bad result for Dems considering where things could've gone. The decision will protect nearly all existing VRA districts. What it targeted were seats like AL and LA with "you have to create a district if you can" scenarios. DeSantis's new map is actually illegal under the new standard.
question: can't we mitigate any damage this would have in georgia if we win governor's race as polls indicate we will
MI-Sen: CNN is reporting that Mallory McMorrow deleted tweets where, among other things, she referenced having voted in California despite being a Michigan resident (McMorrow never ran for public office until 2018):
https://www.instagram.com/p/DXtui-iiqOc/
This is from the same CNN reporter who got Trump elected in 2024 with the transgender prison inmate story against Kamala Harris, and, not surprisingly, most of it is a nothingburger except for where she may have committed election fraud.
Think it's a bit much to say a "reporter [got] Trump elected in 2024 with the transgender prison inmate story against Kamala Harris."
Absolutely. Harris lost due to a wide array of factors, and that isn't close to being at the top of the list.
If there had been no inflation between 2020 and 2024, I think Harris would probably have won.
After all, "it's the economy, stupid!"
On Callais, I know Republicans probably could easily draw out a few more seats in much of the south, but would they really risk doing that in places like Georgia, where Democrats look primed to have a banner year, or Texas where they already might have overextended themselves?
They can probably draw out Sanford Bishop, but maybe they’d be deterred from doing so if Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan win the GASC races in a couple weeks. If they do, we can flip the court in 2028. I can’t imagine they would want to unpack Atlanta any further.
As for Texas, that map seems like it was built in a house of cards of temporary good hispanic numbers for Republicans. If the Talarico +30 numbers with hispanic polls are accurate, that map is going to crumble.
They could probably get rid of McBath or the old Scott seat - they already removed Bordeaux with relative ease, and that wasn't based on race.
I will add that dismantling the 13th would be harder, depending on if it becomes a swing area that goes to reliably blue Athens.