I've seen some quite doomerist comments recently regarding MT-Sen.
All I have to say about that right now is, don't forget that Sara Gideon led in almost every single poll of ME-Sen 2020 after Labor Day. And we know how that turned out.
Tester is an institution in Montana, just like Collins in Maine. It's been speculated that if not for RC…
I've seen some quite doomerist comments recently regarding MT-Sen.
All I have to say about that right now is, don't forget that Sara Gideon led in almost every single poll of ME-Sen 2020 after Labor Day. And we know how that turned out.
Tester is an institution in Montana, just like Collins in Maine. It's been speculated that if not for RCV, Collins would've won by about 5%. Biden won Maine by 9%, so Collins effectively outperformed Trump by 14%.
That's almost exactly the margin I expect Trump to win Montana by this year. MT-Sen is going to be very close. But Tester definitely has a chance to win.
However, i do wish the Center For Politics would acknowledge that the Fabrizio Ward poll done for the AARP was heavily skewed towards older voters and on the issues they care about. It's bad enough Axios and Politico and of course right-wing sites are just pushing a simplistic and sensationalist narrative that Tester is losing without really giving context to the AARP poll.
While Maine and Montana may not be apples to oranges, I still don't think anyone should write off Tester.
I don't think Collins' win says anything about Tester's current race, because it assumes partisans on each side behave similarly, when they definitely do not. Trump supporters who see everything as "us versus them" seem far less likely to cross over and support a Democrat than the moderate, pragmatic voters of Maine who typically vote Dem for President while continually reelecting people like Collins, Olympia Snowe, indie Angus King, and others before them. These are not even close to the same type of person. One values authoritarianism (and with it, one-party rule), the other moderation and bipartisanship. It's true that Montana and Maine both have a lot of independents and an independence mind-set, but is that enough to overcome the partisan lean?
There was a good article a couple of years ago I read explaining why a lot of Dems crossed over to support Collins' reelection in 2020. It basically boiled down to they trusted her since she's been a pillar of the state for decades and Mainers are still willing to see politicians as people, rather than by their party labels. Unfortunately for Tester I don't think the average Montanan sees the same anymore.
Because those are the common factors...Tester and Collins are both popular incumbents. I'm suggesting that, despite those similarities, the voter pools in the two states are not similar enough for this comparison to be worthwhile.
Candidate quality is a major factor in any political race; Jon Tester is by far the best candidate our side can offer and he's a long-time incumbent with saturation levels of funding; I agree with you, because I think the Democratic ground game will bring between 2-3% of a turnout advantage; in a nutshell, it's a squeaker
I REALLY wish we saw some more polling from nonpartisan pollsters in this race, or heck even some Dem or left leaning pollsters. There's been a flood of R and conservative pollsters lately, notably in Montana, but also outside and it's getting frustrating to not see polls from other sources. I'd at least like to see some more data points and updates that may give us an idea of how things are playing out in Montana.
I've seen some quite doomerist comments recently regarding MT-Sen.
All I have to say about that right now is, don't forget that Sara Gideon led in almost every single poll of ME-Sen 2020 after Labor Day. And we know how that turned out.
Tester is an institution in Montana, just like Collins in Maine. It's been speculated that if not for RCV, Collins would've won by about 5%. Biden won Maine by 9%, so Collins effectively outperformed Trump by 14%.
That's almost exactly the margin I expect Trump to win Montana by this year. MT-Sen is going to be very close. But Tester definitely has a chance to win.
I was just going to say that the Center For Politics even noted Collins' electoral win and the polling being off. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/montana-senate-race-moves-from-toss-up-to-leans-republican/
However, i do wish the Center For Politics would acknowledge that the Fabrizio Ward poll done for the AARP was heavily skewed towards older voters and on the issues they care about. It's bad enough Axios and Politico and of course right-wing sites are just pushing a simplistic and sensationalist narrative that Tester is losing without really giving context to the AARP poll.
While Maine and Montana may not be apples to oranges, I still don't think anyone should write off Tester.
I'm not writing him off. But I do think he's the underdog at this point. We need to hedge our bets by leaning into FL and TX.
I don't think Collins' win says anything about Tester's current race, because it assumes partisans on each side behave similarly, when they definitely do not. Trump supporters who see everything as "us versus them" seem far less likely to cross over and support a Democrat than the moderate, pragmatic voters of Maine who typically vote Dem for President while continually reelecting people like Collins, Olympia Snowe, indie Angus King, and others before them. These are not even close to the same type of person. One values authoritarianism (and with it, one-party rule), the other moderation and bipartisanship. It's true that Montana and Maine both have a lot of independents and an independence mind-set, but is that enough to overcome the partisan lean?
There was a good article a couple of years ago I read explaining why a lot of Dems crossed over to support Collins' reelection in 2020. It basically boiled down to they trusted her since she's been a pillar of the state for decades and Mainers are still willing to see politicians as people, rather than by their party labels. Unfortunately for Tester I don't think the average Montanan sees the same anymore.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/01/17/do-democrats-who-supported-susan-collins-in-2020-regret-their-vote/
Imo you are not factoring in incumbency and personal popularity as much as is warranted
Because those are the common factors...Tester and Collins are both popular incumbents. I'm suggesting that, despite those similarities, the voter pools in the two states are not similar enough for this comparison to be worthwhile.
Agree to disagree👍
But we're not disagreeing.
Oops sorry.. My bad
Candidate quality is a major factor in any political race; Jon Tester is by far the best candidate our side can offer and he's a long-time incumbent with saturation levels of funding; I agree with you, because I think the Democratic ground game will bring between 2-3% of a turnout advantage; in a nutshell, it's a squeaker
Reid looked doomed in NV-SEN in 2010, but survived.
I think Trump is likely to win MT by double digits, and I'm not doomerist about this race, but I'm definitely concerned about it.
I REALLY wish we saw some more polling from nonpartisan pollsters in this race, or heck even some Dem or left leaning pollsters. There's been a flood of R and conservative pollsters lately, notably in Montana, but also outside and it's getting frustrating to not see polls from other sources. I'd at least like to see some more data points and updates that may give us an idea of how things are playing out in Montana.