Oof, that NY-15 poll does not look good for Michael Blake. It's an internal too. Damn, I really don't like Torres. Ah well.
Anyway, Plummer's win was a pretty big upset in the Harris County Judge race. Parker led by quite a bit in the one poll I saw. It's also yet another left victory, as Parker was more of a centrist, while Plummer was a progressive backed by outgoing Judge Lina Hidalgo. The question now is: can she win in November, given how close Hidalgo's races were? (In this environment, I'd say probably.)
Unrelated, but on Bluesky there's been a lot of sudden energy and interest in Darializa Avila Chevalier's primary bid against Espaillat. The DSA is backing her, I've heard her canvassers are out in force, and the one poll done showed Espaillat ahead by a lot, but not cracking 50 in the poll (and he previously underperformed even lesser-known challengers). Could an upset be brewing? Or is Espaillat safe? Curious to know people's thoughts.
Finally, I'm curious to know what people here think of Menefee beating Green. Good news, or bad news? They are both progressives from what I've heard (albeit with crypto backing Menefee), so it seems to be more of a generational challenge. Thoughts?
I’m very happy that Democratic voters are choosing the younger candidates. Al Green was a good Rep, nothing against him at all. But the idea that you should stay in office until you die needs to be cast aside, especially at a time when voters don’t trust the Party. How can you make the case for something new if you are running candidates who have been in office for decades?
Yeah in a head to head without age, I probably like Green more. And don't like how Menefee is awash with tech money. But I have so much agita about the risk of Green dying before January 2029 that I donated to Menefee.
That’s why I think Democrats need to 1) ban stock trading within the Senate and House caucuses without waiting for the GOP to move on it, 2) remove Schumer as Minority Leader (fair or unfair, 3 decades in office links him to everything that voter’s hate about Congress), and 3) like Peltola, attack corruption in a non-partisan way that links it to not addressing local concerns
Because getting Independents or anti-MAGA Republicans to believe Democrats are serious about corruption matters most.
The huge majority of self-described independents are (at least fairly) reliable voters for one party or the other. If they turn out, that's who they'll vote for. The goal is to turn out Dem voters, and corruption is a good lever for that.
In Indiana, Diego Morales is hitting back at the Republican establishment's efforts to take him out of the race for The Republican nomination for Secretary of State:
It's a curious line of argument: that Republican supporters of redistricting are opposing him because he supported Republican redistricting. Of course, it is also curious that Republican leadership is going after him for supposedly having an illegal immigrant who voted in elections working in his office (which, the article tells us is untrue) rather than focusing on Morales' hiring of relatives and spending a lot of money on official cars and travel.
My based on nothing theories are that he has more substantive sexual assault allegations waiting in the wings, so they're making things up to push him out without Streisand-effecting it by saying it out loud, and/or there's a clear tinge of intra-party racism that Morales is getting kicked out for things that would not be as big a deal if he was just another venal, predatory white conservative guy.
I cannot understand Texan Republicans. Texans have always taken great pride in their independence and the state’s inner “grandeur” (everything is bigger in Texas). But now, they act as total puppets and ring kissers (very tempted to have them kiss something else) to a multiple felon, sexual predator, and general crook. What happened to Texas Republicans?
They got entrenched in power and, like NC Republicans, started catering to billionaire PAC donors rather than do their effing jobs.
But TX Republicans are a different breed altogether. Paxton makes the slimy dealings by Berger, Moore and Hall look like child's play.
Paxton could very well be TX's Kari Lake/Herschel Walker this cycle. But TX voters HAVE to turn out to vote for Talarico. The thought of Paxton schlepping it up with Cruz in the U.S. Senate makes me sick.
Everything is nationalized now; regional independence is dead. Southern Louisiana voters also stayed independent until they suddenly didn't; now they're West Virginia 2.0
Very excited to see Plummer win, and she's also another rare thing: an elected Democratic dentist lol. They tend to be Republicans (currently: Mike Simpson, Paul Gosar, Brian Babin and party switcher Jeff Van Drew; so were Dan Crane, Drew Ferguson and Demi Kouzounas).
Paxton is not an anomaly, he’s par for the course in a state party that’s produced Ted Cruz and Greg Abbott. He’s also a proven vote getter. He won’t be easy to defeat. The logical next step for Texas Republicans will be to nominate a school shooter.
Basically everything that could have went right for us in Texas went right. Jon Rosenthal is a very credible candidate who, in theory, should be able to take advantage of Bo French’s extreme racism if he is sufficiently funded. Might be worth the national party investing in a few of these downballot statewide races in Texas.
I really think public services/utilities commission candidates are such a clear area for the party to invest and grow their benches. I think they'll turn out to be real Dem springboards for higher office over the next decade if we can take more of them over and bring people's rates down. (Note: Tricia Pridemore just tried to escape hatch her reelection in GA for a Repub House primary and she couldn't make it past the first round.)
Just wondering if anyone noticed interesting things in the Massachusetts candidate filing deadlines yesterday? I couldn't easily find a registry of candidates on the Secretary of the Commonwealth website.
Can I just say thank you to the authors of The Downballot? You guys, Primary School, and Bolts Magazine got me into really down-ticket elections, and are part of why I’m a big political/election junkie now. Thanks for your high-quality reads - and thanks to this community for being so calm and rational, unlike some other sites I’ve been on where people are the opposite of that.
Sadly, Missouri voters will probably see "eliminate income tax" on Amendment 5 and immediately vote yes even though they are actually voting for a sales tax increase. Amendment 4 will be rejected, I think, but politicians tried to put ballot candy in it by claiming the amendment will "prohibit foreign contributions" in ballot measure elections which, of course, is already illegal. So it might be close. But 4 really needs to fail so the Respect Missouri Voters amendment can pass in the fall.
Also missed in my congressional caucus PAC update of endorsements and spending last night that the Repub Women's Caucus also recently endorsed Barb Regnitz (IN-01 nominee) and Carrie Buck (NV-01 candidate).
Oof, that NY-15 poll does not look good for Michael Blake. It's an internal too. Damn, I really don't like Torres. Ah well.
Anyway, Plummer's win was a pretty big upset in the Harris County Judge race. Parker led by quite a bit in the one poll I saw. It's also yet another left victory, as Parker was more of a centrist, while Plummer was a progressive backed by outgoing Judge Lina Hidalgo. The question now is: can she win in November, given how close Hidalgo's races were? (In this environment, I'd say probably.)
Unrelated, but on Bluesky there's been a lot of sudden energy and interest in Darializa Avila Chevalier's primary bid against Espaillat. The DSA is backing her, I've heard her canvassers are out in force, and the one poll done showed Espaillat ahead by a lot, but not cracking 50 in the poll (and he previously underperformed even lesser-known challengers). Could an upset be brewing? Or is Espaillat safe? Curious to know people's thoughts.
Finally, I'm curious to know what people here think of Menefee beating Green. Good news, or bad news? They are both progressives from what I've heard (albeit with crypto backing Menefee), so it seems to be more of a generational challenge. Thoughts?
I’m not in Texas.
I’m very happy that Democratic voters are choosing the younger candidates. Al Green was a good Rep, nothing against him at all. But the idea that you should stay in office until you die needs to be cast aside, especially at a time when voters don’t trust the Party. How can you make the case for something new if you are running candidates who have been in office for decades?
Yeah in a head to head without age, I probably like Green more. And don't like how Menefee is awash with tech money. But I have so much agita about the risk of Green dying before January 2029 that I donated to Menefee.
If Dem candidates' #1 message this year isn't corruption, it should def be #2.
This is a big, fat softball coming in, low, slow, and over the plate.
Corruption isn't really a good issue to attract independents, since most believe that both parties are hopelessly corrupt.
I hear it all the time from co-workers.
It’s still a major problem that needs to be addressed, whether or not it’s a campaign issue.
That’s why I think Democrats need to 1) ban stock trading within the Senate and House caucuses without waiting for the GOP to move on it, 2) remove Schumer as Minority Leader (fair or unfair, 3 decades in office links him to everything that voter’s hate about Congress), and 3) like Peltola, attack corruption in a non-partisan way that links it to not addressing local concerns
Because getting Independents or anti-MAGA Republicans to believe Democrats are serious about corruption matters most.
Banning stock trading through caucus rules is a really good idea, I think that a lot.
The huge majority of self-described independents are (at least fairly) reliable voters for one party or the other. If they turn out, that's who they'll vote for. The goal is to turn out Dem voters, and corruption is a good lever for that.
Bingo. Trump's whole message was "sure I'm corrupt but the system is corrupt" and indie and low-info voters ate it up.
In Indiana, Diego Morales is hitting back at the Republican establishment's efforts to take him out of the race for The Republican nomination for Secretary of State:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/05/26/morales-lashes-back-over-loss-of-indiana-secretary-of-state-race-support/?emci=2d04a2f6-3459-f111-8fcb-000d3a18905c&emdi=bbc13267-bf59-f111-8fcb-000d3a18905c&ceid=630426
It's a curious line of argument: that Republican supporters of redistricting are opposing him because he supported Republican redistricting. Of course, it is also curious that Republican leadership is going after him for supposedly having an illegal immigrant who voted in elections working in his office (which, the article tells us is untrue) rather than focusing on Morales' hiring of relatives and spending a lot of money on official cars and travel.
My based on nothing theories are that he has more substantive sexual assault allegations waiting in the wings, so they're making things up to push him out without Streisand-effecting it by saying it out loud, and/or there's a clear tinge of intra-party racism that Morales is getting kicked out for things that would not be as big a deal if he was just another venal, predatory white conservative guy.
I cannot understand Texan Republicans. Texans have always taken great pride in their independence and the state’s inner “grandeur” (everything is bigger in Texas). But now, they act as total puppets and ring kissers (very tempted to have them kiss something else) to a multiple felon, sexual predator, and general crook. What happened to Texas Republicans?
They got entrenched in power and, like NC Republicans, started catering to billionaire PAC donors rather than do their effing jobs.
But TX Republicans are a different breed altogether. Paxton makes the slimy dealings by Berger, Moore and Hall look like child's play.
Paxton could very well be TX's Kari Lake/Herschel Walker this cycle. But TX voters HAVE to turn out to vote for Talarico. The thought of Paxton schlepping it up with Cruz in the U.S. Senate makes me sick.
Everything is nationalized now; regional independence is dead. Southern Louisiana voters also stayed independent until they suddenly didn't; now they're West Virginia 2.0
Very excited to see Plummer win, and she's also another rare thing: an elected Democratic dentist lol. They tend to be Republicans (currently: Mike Simpson, Paul Gosar, Brian Babin and party switcher Jeff Van Drew; so were Dan Crane, Drew Ferguson and Demi Kouzounas).
It's been a while since I've heard about Dan Crane. I thought Kouzounas was never elected, though?
Paxton is not an anomaly, he’s par for the course in a state party that’s produced Ted Cruz and Greg Abbott. He’s also a proven vote getter. He won’t be easy to defeat. The logical next step for Texas Republicans will be to nominate a school shooter.
Basically everything that could have went right for us in Texas went right. Jon Rosenthal is a very credible candidate who, in theory, should be able to take advantage of Bo French’s extreme racism if he is sufficiently funded. Might be worth the national party investing in a few of these downballot statewide races in Texas.
I really think public services/utilities commission candidates are such a clear area for the party to invest and grow their benches. I think they'll turn out to be real Dem springboards for higher office over the next decade if we can take more of them over and bring people's rates down. (Note: Tricia Pridemore just tried to escape hatch her reelection in GA for a Repub House primary and she couldn't make it past the first round.)
You mentioned Florida’s new 22nd is now open. Is Lois Frankel running in a new district?
FL-23. It’s believed Jared Moskowitz will jump into FL-25.
I’ll be curious to see who we run in FL-22 now. I’ve heard Lauren Book be floated as a contender.
Thanks for the info. I don’t know if he has a real chance but I liked Oliver Larkin in FL-25 if only for his DSA background
Pia Dandiya is also running in FL-22.
This Substack article is a good dive into how Cook Report and Sabato can cost Dems winnable House seats due to their outdated polling model.
https://decalibrate.substack.com/p/by-august-cook-will-move-a-third?r=8glhm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
Just wondering if anyone noticed interesting things in the Massachusetts candidate filing deadlines yesterday? I couldn't easily find a registry of candidates on the Secretary of the Commonwealth website.
Can I just say thank you to the authors of The Downballot? You guys, Primary School, and Bolts Magazine got me into really down-ticket elections, and are part of why I’m a big political/election junkie now. Thanks for your high-quality reads - and thanks to this community for being so calm and rational, unlike some other sites I’ve been on where people are the opposite of that.
Ditto. I've been following this blog since I had to track an election in 2008 and I'm still here (Steve Stivers vs. Mary Jo Kilroy).
Sadly, Missouri voters will probably see "eliminate income tax" on Amendment 5 and immediately vote yes even though they are actually voting for a sales tax increase. Amendment 4 will be rejected, I think, but politicians tried to put ballot candy in it by claiming the amendment will "prohibit foreign contributions" in ballot measure elections which, of course, is already illegal. So it might be close. But 4 really needs to fail so the Respect Missouri Voters amendment can pass in the fall.
There's a piece of the repubs who doesn't care about a corrupt background. The dirtier the better. Look around 🤔🤔
Also missed in my congressional caucus PAC update of endorsements and spending last night that the Repub Women's Caucus also recently endorsed Barb Regnitz (IN-01 nominee) and Carrie Buck (NV-01 candidate).
David Schweikert not cracking double digits in a statewide poll after being in Congress for 16 years is something.