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Paleo's avatar

So the administration now claims there is no Epstein file containing a list of names after Bondi stated that one was on her desk.

A review ordered by President Donald Trump-appointed leadership of the Justice Department and the FBI found no evidence that notorious deceased financier Jeffrey Epstein kept a "client list" of associates whom he blackmailed or conspired with to victimize dozens of women, according to a new memo reviewed by ABC News.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/doj-fbi-review-finds-jeffrey-epstein-client-list/story?id=123526125

Social media is abuzz with attacks from both sides. Will Democrats jump on this? Why do I bother asking?

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Atl🔅Av8r's avatar

Jump on what? Scream loudly into the wind? What are they supposed to do about it? Insist it be released? They’ve already done that. Social media may be “buzzing” but the real world has bigger problems now with this deadly bill being passed. Even if Democrats found that Trump‘s name was at the very top of this list that doesn’t exist, nothing would be done by the FBI or any other law-enforcement as long as Trump has his foot on their throats. It’s another distraction.

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Paleo's avatar

"What are they supposed to do about it? Insist it be released?"

That would be nice. Or allege a coverup. In case you haven't noticed, Republicans win by using the politics of distraction.

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

Would elected Democrats talking about this be useful?

Or is it better to let the social media world buzz on it by themselves?

I don’t think the Epstein list should be high on their priorities, but it could be useful to draw attention to broken promises.

IE: Trump promised to protect Medicaid, that was a lie. Promised to release the Epstein list, that was a lie.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Yes. We need to learn how to go on the attack and make scandals stick. Turn it into a media cycle that sticks around for a bit.

Social media and the traditional media won't do it for us. Especially today, where the traditional media is openly hostile to us. For that matter a lot of social media is not super pleased with our party either, where even the would-be sympathetic parts of the internet often bemoaning our leaders as spineless.

Weakening an incumbent administration and weakening a candidate aren't exactly the same. As such, my standard complaint of how democrats don't stick to a message long enough isn't an issue here; it's OK if these critiques fall away with time. The focus here is keeping him mired in scandal. If one of the attacks sticks and causes recurring damage, even better.

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

I just don’t think it’s important enough. Unless it turns out that there is video of Trump with a trafficked girl.

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Atl🔅Av8r's avatar

True he did promise. But he’s broken so many others I worry this would be a useful distraction that helps Trump more than hurts.

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

that would be my initial thought as well

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Atl🔅Av8r's avatar

BONDI herself was caught buying and selling $$millions of her personal stocks the DAY BEFORE Trump’s manipulation of the stock market as well as 20+ other members of his administration.

Trump is taking payments PERSONALLY for Pardons of people like an ex sheriff who had just recently been convicted of selling BADGES TO CRIMINALS.

And a pardon to Paul Wysek… a man who owned nursing homes who CONFESSED to defrauding his own employees of millions from their paychecks plus tax evasion. Part of Wysek’s plea deal was repaying his victims. His mother “donated” over a $million to one of Trump’s crypto funds and Trump pardoned Wysek the next day INCLUDING VOIDING REIMBURSEMENTS to victims.

Trump has given badges to thousands of J6ers and neo Nazis as “bounty hunters” to kidnap LEGAL IMMIGRANTS and Citizens locking them up with ZERO DUE PROCESS. He’s defying SCOTUS. Using troops against citizens.

ORDERED A BOMBING without giving half of congress even a notice.

Taking payments from media CEOS for Trump not to sue them for what Trump seems unflattering news.

These are horrible abuses!

If pictures and videos with Epstein sadly didn’t matter to voters during the election, it probably wont matter now, but even if it did, nothing would be done.

I suspect that Dems raising voices about this Epstein list is reinforce his base’s defiance and push back. They’ll call it “Fake” and push the same lies they did after Trump’s convictions.

I’m with you…. Trump grape 🍇ing little girls SHOULD MATTER. But in a world where we have kids dying in floods because Trump’s January Ex Order has stripped away all of the tools necessary for local governments to have enough time to be able to accurately predict weather behavior 36/48 hours in advance enough to perform complex evacuations. Trump stripped NOAA/NWS/FAA (aka public) access to satellites, weather balloons, oceanic tools that measure changes in temperature, pressure, etc ALL to erase any possible signs of climate change.

All of this is happening now. Dems screaming about the Epstein Files would probably be a gift to Trump.

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Guy's avatar

The flash flood tragedy in Texas isn’t Trump’s fault. These floods are extremely hard to predict and the NWS did their job to the best of their abilities. The problem was rural governments sitting on their asses.

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Andrew's avatar

So? Blame Trump, anyway. Him firing so many employees at NWS is a great talking point and should be shouted from the rooftops.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Fair, and I heard on WINS yesterday that the National Weather Service sent several increasingly strong alerts about flooding to Texas in the days prior to the flooding, ending with a flood emergency, which is unheard of. But at least subjectively, the NWS is getting markedly more unreliable. I postponed a chore till tomorrow because they had forecast rains and possibly a thunderstorm as likely after 2, it still hasn't rained at all, and now they've greatly increased and pushed back their forecast of a chance of rain and thunderstorms tomorrow, which had previously looked clear until 8, making me regret my choice. And this is after a few days ago, seeing the NWS radar show that it was raining heavily in Manhattan for 30-40 minutes when it never rained during that period except for a few tiny drops. I had never seen such inaccurate radar before.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Might be worth making an issue of it if people are experiencing the same sort of thing around the country. Hard for me to tell personally as Denver weather has always difficult to predict.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I was talking with a friend about this yesterday. The weather report is so unreliable now in terms of predicting rain that I feel like it's back to the 1970s and 80s when you just poked your head out the window and made a decision on that basis.

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Atl🔅Av8r's avatar

I don’t know how you can say it’s not Trump‘s fault after his January executive order stripped NOAA of all of its tools to be able to predict long-term forecast with the high degree of accuracy necessary for complex evacuations.

Trump’s executive order stripped NOAA of its ability to use DOD satellites, weather balloons (used daily) oceanic/atmospheric gauges, and even worse all of the world renowned websites and data that compiled all of this data being received 24 hours a day from all of these advanced weather tools, have been scrubbed. scrubbed all of these tools pulled together has been scrubbed. All of these tools are necessary for long-term predictions. It’s the difference between knowing a cat 5 hurricane barreling towards the coast on eastern track, will make turn to the north in 48 hours. We no longer have the predictability available to be able to predict which coast will need evacuating. Millions of people are in danger because of this stupid reckless decision by one man. What you saw happen with this river has everything to do with Trump cutting the chord. That is why they did not get them evacuated in a timely manner.

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Paleo's avatar

“Democrats have never really tried to make Trump’s extensive connections to Epstein into a political liability.“

https://bsky.app/profile/maxberger.bsky.social/post/3ltfjaa6f3c2b

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Tigercourse's avatar

The average person isn't going to care about the bill being passed but they might care about the Epstein thing if it is framed the right way.

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Atl🔅Av8r's avatar

The average person is getting screwed by this bill so yes, they care. Polling saying over 70% of Americans polled were against this bill.

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Diogenes's avatar

We should also care that it is now five weeks after Trump gave Putin a two-week deadline to begin negotiating his war in Ukraine. And after 90 days, Trump's pledge to come up with 90 trade deals in 90 days has yielded two deals at most.

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Atl🔅Av8r's avatar

Agree. Trump has failed us in so many ways. I’m afraid Dems screaming about the Epstein files would just reinvigorate the unhinged cult. They don’t seem to care about immorality at all. Sometimes it seems like they see Trump 🍇ing little girls as acceptable. Some of these MAGA Christians sound like straight up psychopaths.

Not gonna lie.

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michaelflutist's avatar

What emoticon is that? Also, how did you produce it? Somehow copy and paste?

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slothlax's avatar

Who gives a shit? Democrats are better served focusing on substance over chasing whatever RW conspiracy theory that pops up from the fever dreams of the depths of internet comment sections.

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David Nir's avatar

Wyden: "Given the evidence my investigators have seen, this reeks of a coverup."

https://bsky.app/profile/wyden.senate.gov/post/3ltfxcuf4y22y

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derkmc's avatar

VA-02: Navy Vet announces for Kiggans seat.

https://x.com/PunchbowlNews/status/1942206968208490776

MUCH better than Pam Northam who the DCCC is supposedly still trying to recruit. While it's not essential I think its key to run a vet in this district considering big military presence in that area. I doubt he'd be the last candidate but its a good start.

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Brad Warren's avatar

I don't know much about Pam Northam, but I do know that the LAST thing I want right now is to be re-litigating her husband's yearbook.

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Jeff Singer's avatar

The story says James Osyf is "gearing up to launch a campaign," but he hasn't announced yet. You're not running until you're running!

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MPC's avatar

That's the most unflattering picture of Kiggans I've ever seen. She knows she's toast next year.

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Brad Warren's avatar

I mean, a person who enters Congress by modestly defeating an incumbent in a swing district has to accept that there's a good chance that they'll meet the same fate someday, right?

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Stargate77's avatar

To be fair, VA-02 was made significantly more Republican in redistricting.

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MPC's avatar

Elaine Luria was perfect for that district. I wish she'd mount a comeback bid to unseat Kiggans, especially how the latter's signing off on FDJT's lawless actions with no care about how her constituents are suffering from these DOGE cuts, making a mockery of law and order and cutting funding to NOAA and FEMA.

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Zero Cool's avatar

It’s also overwhelmingly urban vs. rural. This in itself along with it being swingy is another reason why it’s probable in being able to swing back to Democrats.

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Techno00's avatar

I wonder if Aaron Rouse would be interested, or a good candidate if he is. I agree Northam is a lousy pick, especially after her husband’s scandal.

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Henrik's avatar

He’d be a perfectly fine candidate

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Stargate77's avatar

Rouse would probably start out as the favorite in the primary, given how well he did in Hampton Roads in the LG primary last month. However, our nominee in VA-02 should ideally be a Navy veteran, which Osyf is and Rouse is not.

Another possible candidate is Delegate Michael Feggans, who is an Air Force veteran. If he wins reelection this year in HD-97 by a solid margin, then he could be a good candidate, although a Navy veteran would be more ideal.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Feggans vs. Kiggans...

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PollJunkie's avatar

https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/zoning-sun-belt-housing-shortage/683352/ : The Whole Country Is Starting to Look Like California

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/417892/suburbs-sunbelt-housing-affordability-yimby : The old suburban frontier is closing. Here’s what the new one could look like.

Even Texans have discovered an ancient law called the 'valid petition,' which grants them powers reminiscent to California’s CEQA (which was rolled back a few days ago by Newsom). I believe that, with the Sun Belt becoming increasingly built out and the effects of climate change intensifying, the Rust Belt could become the next booming region.

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Brad Warren's avatar

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/detroit-population-decline_b_840258

This opinion piece is 14 years old now, but I've long thought it was very prescient. The Rust Belt is indeed "the Saudi Arabia of fresh water."

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Henrik's avatar

Cleveland was one of the hottest housing markets in the country last year IIRC. Granted that’s by price growth not pop growth, but, still…

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Brad Warren's avatar

IIRC, the 2020 Census showed that Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo have *finally* stopped hemorrhaging population (maybe Detroit too?). It will be interesting to see if that trend continues; if it does, Cleveland will likely follow.

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Henrik's avatar

Roughly starting in the mid-2010s, yes. Detroit especially is enjoying something of a minor renaissance

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NewEnglandMinnesotan's avatar

What demographics are driving this? And what political leanings? Would these states have any chance of regaining congressional districts and electoral votes?

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slothlax's avatar

I can only speak to Syracuse, but we had our first population increase since 1950 and it was mostly attributed to refugees/asylum seekers and gentrifying young people moving downtown.

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Henrik's avatar

My sense is that Detroit is a similar story

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Maybe in 50-100 years you'll see a resurgence in the rust belt when climate change can't be avoided but right now people love their warm, sunny weather and, for now, cheaper housing.

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PollJunkie's avatar

The article and the study says that housing is not that cheap anymore in major Sun Belt cities with a sharp increase in prices and NIMBYism.

Climate change effects are already being felt and will accelerate. 50-100 years is similar to climate denial rhetoric. If it was that far away, scientists and advocates would be much calmer. It's being increasing felt with a higher frequency of extreme weather events and left unchecked, it will get progressively worse.

One such prediction: https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/effects/

By around 2050, the amount of land consumed by wildfires in Western states is projected to further increase by two to six times.

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Buckeye73's avatar

It will be the cost of insurance that will drive population movement in the future. We are already seeing this in Florida.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

Florida, Arizona and much of Texas aren't comfortably "warm" anymore . .they're excruciatingly hot most of the year and it's only going to get worse. Meanwhile formerly "frigid" places will increasingly have very pleasant weather for most of the year.

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Kildere53's avatar

And people who want to live in those "frigid" places, like me, are totally screwed.

I'd love to live in a place where the temperature never exceeded ~72 degrees. And where it was never humid either.

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RainDog2's avatar

Laramie, Wy. I did my PhD there. Nice place if 7 months of winter doesn't bother you.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Increasingly less pleasant. 90+-degree weather in June was not normal in New York, but it will be....

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Kevin H.'s avatar

As a resident of Texas, sure, those 4 months of hot weather aren't great but that's why they invented AC. While the rust belt is freezing their arse off we have 72 degree weather, that's the trade off.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

I live in coastal SC and grew up in southern Michigan, I understand why people snowbird, but honestly I'd move back to Michigan tomorrow if I had a job, and if the family would consider it (so far a dead end because od SAD winter weather).

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes but just be careful what you wish for. It might come at a cost down the road that could exaggerbate the problem.

A Bloomberg article is pointing out a problem with too many tourists in countries like Greece. Although tourism is great, too much of it can exaggerbate the cost of living.

This isn't something I'm arguing should have a singular solution. However, it's going to be a problem in the U.S. the more we are arguing for more housing and as cities continue to attract more tourism as a result of the attention U.S. cities get.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-07-07/over-tourism-the-most-overcrowded-destinations-and-what-can-be-done?srnd=phx-explainers

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michaelflutist's avatar

If the CBP continue to arbitrarily detain and torture visitors, they may cause tourism to cease being a "problem" in the U.S....

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes, true.

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Diogenes's avatar

Donald Trump of course opposes Elon Musk's intention to form a new political party. However, demonstrating once again his embarrassing ignorance of American history, Trump wrote: "He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States.”

In fact, the Republican Party began as a third-party alternative to the Democrats and Whigs. It seems somewhat successful.

And the Reform Party was successful enough to elect a governor of Minnesota, Jesse Ventura. It was also successful enough to attract an opportunist named Donald Trump to attempt to secure its nomination for president in 2000.

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Zero Cool's avatar

And as it turns out, Pat Buchanan infiltrated the Reform Party and destroyed it, which ended up dissuading Trump from running.

Coincidentally, Trump’s 2016 campaign was an exact copy of Buchanan’s 2000 presidential campaign.

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Diogenes's avatar

Yes, which demonstrates that Trump was driven not by principle or policy but opportunity.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes although I believe that Trump wants to destroy the GOP as a result of what happened in 2000.

It has to do with his opportunity for running for POTUS being blown away.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

And didn't Teddy Roosevelt outpoll Taft when Wilson won? Was that the Bull Moose party?

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michaelflutist's avatar

It succeeded in throwing the election to Wilson. The only 3rd party that ever succeeded nationwide is the Republicans.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Not sure how you're defining third party in this context but Whigs also won nationally and were not one of the original parties.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Originally, there were no parties, only President George Washington. I misremembered that the Democratic-Republicans and Whigs were the first 2 parties, but it was actually the Federalists that were originally the other party. But the thing is, the Whigs weren't a third party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_parties_in_the_United_States

[quote]By 1828, the Federalists had disappeared as an organization, and Andrew Jackson's presidency split the Democratic-Republican Party: "Jacksonians" became the Democratic Party, while those following the leadership of John Quincy Adams became the National Republican Party (unrelated to the later Republican Party). After the 1832 election, opponents of Jackson—primarily National Republicans, Anti-Masons, and others—coalesced into the Whig Party led by Henry Clay. This marked the return of the two-party political system, but with different parties.[unquote]

The Republicans actually ran as one of 3 major parties at first. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1856_United_States_presidential_election

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slothlax's avatar

OTOH, the Republicans basically replaced the Whigs and the Reform Party never won an election to Congress. Even in other FPTP systems like the UK and Canada they have at least five parties in Parliament. We definitely do have a two-party system.

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Diogenes's avatar

OTOH, multi-party systems keep Israel, Italy, and France in perpetual political crisis.

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Techno00's avatar

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2025/07/07/jesse-jackson-jr-eyes-old-seat-00441089

Apparently former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. is eyeing his old seat, IL-2, for a comeback. Can’t say I approve, given his previous disgrace for campaign finance violations.

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Henrik's avatar

Please no

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Maybe Robin Kelly can be convinced to run for reelection her chances at the Senate were always a longshot anyway.

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Mike in MD's avatar

If he wants to try and claim redemption, that's his right, but he shouldn't expect to use a comeback story plus his name to skate back into office--though if the primary turns into a clown car that may be all he needs.

At least his brother Jonathan is in Congress (IL-01) restoring some good grace to the family legacy --something I wish a Kennedy would do.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Big Crypto and Big Oil spend so much on Republican candidates so why doesn't Big Clean Energy do the same for us?

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James Trout's avatar

Because too many Democratic voters whine about "big money." In their eyes, it's no different. And that's nothing new, BTW. When Howard Dean's Presidential bid received the endorsements from the SEIU and AFSCME, many of his supporters complained and whined about it as to them "big labor" was no different than big business.

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Guy's avatar

Because Big Clean Energy isn’t really a thing.

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Space Wizard's avatar

Checking PAC donations on OpenSecrets, it seems like a combination of two factors: 1) Oil and gas spending is an order of magnitude larger than clean energy spending, and 2) clean energy pacs give to both parties, while oil and gas give much more exclusively to republicans. Could be a combination of oil and gas being older/bigger industries with more money, pro-clean-energy dems more likely to be ideologically in favor and less likely to take PC money overall, and clean energy companies wanting to grease specific republicans in booming solar states like Texas.

https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/industry-detail/E12/2024

https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/industry-detail/E01/2024

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

The clean energy companies have to give to Republicans; they have no choice. It just saved the Texas House from passing a terrible bill that passed the Senate that would've kneecapped all renewable energy in the state.

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AnthonySF's avatar

Big Clean Energy has no $$$ compared to Big Oil

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RL Miller's avatar

anecdotally, a political person at AWEA bragged to me a few years ago about spending $250K to help (a generic Repub) in Iowa. I just looked at him and said: "Or you could have given $250K to help his Dem challenger, who would have been just as wind-friendly if not more so, and she wouldn't be voting to take away my health care!"

more generally, the clean energy folk are not politically sophisticated, think they need to work both sides, don't have oil/gas bazillions, and they're sometimes short sighted. American Clean Power in particular is infiltrated by the fossil fuel industry.

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D Stone's avatar

Consistently excellent work, thank you.

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Paleo's avatar

Former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is considering challenging Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in NY-17, according to people familiar with the matter.

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/07/sean-patrick-maloney-congress-mike-lawler-new-york

I don’t know whether this is good or bad.

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Techno00's avatar

Very bad. Maloney ran a lousy campaign in 2022 — some local Dems I knew accused him of not showing up to help campaign. His reputation is poor in the area and he’d likely lose IMO.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

Just out of curiosity, is your screen name 00 like a birth year or something, or a play on being a Luddite or anti-crypto, like Tech? Noooo!

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Techno00's avatar

00 is my birth year. I’m Gen Z.

Techno is because I’m a big electronic music fan.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

Thanks. I'll probably always see it as Tech Nooo, and it'll make me smile in a classic Dad joke way. My Gen Z daughter has convinced me that LoFi is worth listening too. I'm a big fan of GenX techno/electronic...Alan Parsons, Pet Shop Boys, Duran Duran, Eurythmics. I guess 1st Wave stuff in today's terms, since 80s music isn't "New" Wave anymore and of course techno has moved beyond synths and drum machines. My friends growing up were all metalheads but I found it too discordant and absent of voice quality when sung. ( Others here will certainly disagree! )

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Techno00's avatar

I'm personally quite fond of 90s house music, drum n bass, UK garage, etc. but I do also love 80s alternative and new wave.

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Zero Cool's avatar

He lost re-election in 2022 when he also happened to be DCCC Chair. Not exactly great optics when you want your old House seat back.

I desire Mike Lawler to be defeated for re-election but Maloney jumping in the race isn’t going to help.

Besides, the NY-17 Congressional District Democratic Primary Race is already crowded with six candidates.

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homerun1's avatar

Actually, NY-17 has seven declared Dem candidates (4 seem to be Some Dudes). A real clown car going on there. Sean Maloney would be #8, and the best of the lot.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I had originally seen six but thanks for the information. Seven it is + Maloney if he runs.

Normally I go to Politics1 to get my information but it appears the campaign website of one Democratic Candidate, Jessica Reinmann, has not been updated on Politics1. Currently the site references Reinmann's LinkedIn profile, which does show that she's a NY-19 Congressional Candidate.

Besides Maloney, these are the following candidates:

Peter Chatzky - https://www.chatzkyforcongress.com/

Cait Conley - https://caitconley.com/

Beth Davidson - https://bethdavidsonforcongress.com/

Effie Phillips-Staley - https://effieforcongress.com/

Jessica Reinmann - https://www.reinmannforcongress.com/

Mike Sacks - https://www.mikesacksforcongress.com/

John Sullivan - https://www.johnsullivanforny.com/

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Maloney also did a poor job running the DCCC that cycle, using the platform it gave him to shop for a more favorable district in NY. Then proceeding to lose that more favorable district anyway.

He should continue to stay out of elected office.

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Tigercourse's avatar

Shop for a more favorable district? He ran in the district that he lived in.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

As I recall the 17th that he ran in had comparably little of his old district in it. Sure, his home was there but the vast majority of his historical constituents were not. At the end of the day members of congress are often willing to move in order to have their home in the district that matches their old constituency best.

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David Nir's avatar

Yep. He repped 25% of NY-17 (where he ran) and 75% of NY-18 (where he didn't but could have/should have).

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Mondaire repped 0% of NY-10, not sure why progressives fell in love with that guy.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I voted for him because I agreed with him the most on issues, not because I was "in love" with him.

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Tigercourse's avatar

Ryan was a better candidate for 18 than Maloney was and Maloney was a better candidate for 17 than Jones was.

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Buckeye73's avatar

Progressives are still mad that he ran in the district that he lived in instead of giving it to Progressive darling Mondaire Jones who didn't live in the district but who represented a good part of the district. It is now left wing dogma that he somehow screwed Jones out of his seat and they are still holding a grudge over this. They even carpetbagged a progressive candidate to run a divisive primary against Maloney in 2022 over this.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

To save some clicks: it's a 30R-8D map, contrasted with the current 25R-13D delegation. Least red seat is apparently R+14.

Not surprised that they have a lot of room to make the map brutal for us. If anything I suspect they could easily enough make something even worse than that.

Question is if the willpower is there for republicans to make that kind of baconmander while pissing off their own incumbents by scattering them across districts. They might be willing to do it, but I could see that kind of effort failing due to individual republicans' concerns and political needs.

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NewEnglandMinnesotan's avatar

I wouldn’t be surprised if the lines could be drawn in such a way that each R incumbent has their own district. Isn’t that the whole thing about gerrymandering? That the lines can be drawn in such surgically absurd ways that individual neighborhoods can be included or excluded from districts?

Also do representatives have to live in the district they represent in Texas?

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Andrew's avatar

US constitution says Reps only have to reside in the state, not the actual district for where they are running.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

There would be a seat for all of them, with seats to spare, in a purely numerical sense. But going with that degree of gerrymandering might destroy any sense of continuity of constituency for defining their seats. It could also easily make representing the seats difficult. That's representing in a non-electoral but political sense; the needs and services of such districts are less cohesive.

None of that will in and of itself stop republicans, but it's not implausible that pushback from reps that want "their" district to remain largely intact to result in a less aggressive re-gerrymander.

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

I think the map has real dummymander potential, especially if Hispanic voters swing back toward Democrats to 2012/2018 levels.

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homerun1's avatar

Meh. dummymander isn't a big concern. This new upcoming map would be used only 3 times: 2026 2028 & 2030 . Then redrawn again after the census.

And speaking of the 2030 census, one recent projection is that TX gets FOUR more seats!

If that comes to be, has anyone looked at what those lines might look like with 42 House seats? How badly would we be screwed by the R's?

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michaelflutist's avatar

Premature. Who knows what Texas and the rest of the country will be or look like then?

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Techno00's avatar

Political news dump, recent stories.

NE-2:

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/07/07/former-state-sen-brett-lindstrom-running-for-congress-in-nebraskas-2nd-district/

Ex-State Sen. Brett Lindstrom is running for the Republican nomination for NE-2, which Don Bacon is vacating. He's running as a "pragmatist" -- a virtually meaningless word in the modern GOP.

PA-10:

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2025/07/after-15-years-in-dauphin-county-post-official-weighs-run-for-congress.html

Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, a Democrat, is contemplating a bid against incumbent GOP Rep. Scott Perry. I don't know a whole lot about him but I welcome any Democrat willing to possibly unseat Perry -- particularly given how close elections have been in this seat in recent years.

CA-41. CA-LG:

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article309969345.html

Tim Myers, bassist of the band OneRepublic, is dropping out of the Democratic primary for Ken Calvert's seat and entering the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor instead. Myers says he is doing so because he believes he can better oppose Trump in that position.

NC-SEN:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/07/congress/don-davis-senate-00441092

Rep. Don Davis, of NC-1, is considering running for the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Thom Tillis. No word on if Roy Cooper running will affect Davis's moves, but honestly, given how swingy his seat is, I'd prefer he stay in Congress.

IA-4:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/07/07/matt-windschitl-iowa-republican-house-majority-leader-congress-4th-district-campaign/83821151007/

This article is paywalled (and I can't access it), but apparently Matt Windschitl, the Iowa State House Majority Leader, is running for the GOP nomination for the seat being vacated by Rep. Randy Feenstra. The seat is very red so whoever wins the GOP nomination likely wins the seat.

Several NY state legislative races:

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/07/these-state-lawmakers-just-won-new-york-city-primaries-who-could-replace-them-albany/406468/

Assuming they all win the general election, NY State Senators Brad Hoylman-Segal and Sean Ryan and State Assemblymembers Zohran Mamdani and Harvey Epstein will all be leaving the NY State Legislature for other positions (respectively, Manhattan Borough President, Buffalo Mayor, NYC Mayor, and NYC Council.) A number of candidates are thus being floated for the open seats. More details in the link, but Mamdani's seat interests me -- as noted by the article, the DSA and progressives in general are quite powerful in that district (it's sometimes jokingly nicknamed "the People's Republic of Astoria", including by those who agree with their politics), and the Queens Democratic leadership despises them. I personally think it is very likely the special election will see them try to pick a non-DSA candidate who then gets into a primary with a prospective DSA candidate later. We'll see. (Also Anthony Weiner may try again for Epstein's seat. Hopefully not.)

Make all of this what you will.

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Techno00's avatar

Missed a few.

NY-10:

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/06/could-brad-lander-primary-dan-goldman-ny-10/406430/?oref=csny-skybox-hp

There's speculation former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander may try to primary Rep. Dan Goldman from the left in the Democratic primary. Goldman is not popular with many progressives, there's bad blood left over from his 2022 primary fight with Yuh-Line Niou, and his refusal to endorse Zohran Mamdani has not helped this. The district is also quite progressive from what I've heard. Goldman may be vulnerable.

CO-1, Buffalo Mayor (plus more in the link)

https://primaryschool.ghost.io/issue-7/

Primary School's new issue is out today. Two big pieces caught my eye in particular.

Rep. Diana DeGette, Democrat of CO-1, has a primary challenger who just filed with the FEC. Melat Kiros, an attorney and PhD student who was fired from a law firm over an open letter she wrote concerning a Middle Eastern geopolitical conflict we are not allowed to discuss here. Seems like a generational challenge -- DeGette is pretty progressive already.

The other one is Buffalo, NY's mayor's race, where conservative Erie County Clerk Mickey Kearns, a conservative Democrat who has repeatedly run as a Republican in the past, is considering running for Buffalo mayor (I assume as an independent) primarily because progressive State Sen. Sean Ryan won the Democratic nomination over incumbent Christopher Scanlon (who is not running in the general as an independent himself.)

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Henrik's avatar

Goldman has been about where you’d expect somebody from his district to be since that primary though so idk how much juice there’d be… if it was anybody other than Lander.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I love Lander and would wholeheartedly support him if he primaried Goldman, but Goldman has been very high-profile and pretty rhetorically effective with his opposition to Trump, and keeping in mind that he won the 2024 election, which is of course why he's in office, I don't think he's unpopular in the district and would tend to consider him at least a slight favorite against Lander, but I also have to wonder whether Lander would rather campaign for a larger constituency.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I'm assuming Tim Myers is jumping in the CA-LG race because the CA-41 race already is too crowded.

I'm not sure running for CA-LG is the best choice for Myers. Generally speaking, those who get elected as Lieutenant Governor have already had a certain degree of government experience coming in. Current Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis didn't held elected office prior to being in this position but previously had a distinguished career as a diplomat.

Even if the role is low profile compared to being Governor, I don't see Myers as potentially enjoying it. There's plenty more he could do in representing CA-41 as a House member than as Lt. Governor in fighting against Trump.

I mean, Sonny Bono was elected to the House to represent then CA-44 from 1995-1998 (until his death).

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homerun1's avatar

A California statewide race is waaaaaay more costly and difficult to run in, than in districts that are 1/52nd of the state. And almost all the CA-41 Dem challengers would've been fellow Some Dudes.

And we already have at least one perfectly fine Dem Lt Gov candidate (Ma). So we shall see about Myers

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Zero Cool's avatar

Regarding CA-41:

I have not taken too much of a look into the current Democratic candidates but one of them, Brandon Riker, previously ran in the Vermont Lt. Governor Democratic Primary back in 2016. He ended up dropping out to endorse David Zuckerman, who served as Lt. Governor in the state from from 2017-2021 and 2023 to 2025.

It's unusual for someone like Riker to have run in a statewide race in a state like VT only then to move to a district like CA-41 and then run for the House.

https://www.wamc.org/new-england-news/2016-03-23/democrat-lieutenant-governor-candidate-drops-out-of-race

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David Nir's avatar

Love these roundups! Tip for the DMR: Try opening in a private window.

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homerun1's avatar

and/or clear cookies

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