Here’s what concerns me (and maybe it shouldn’t); back in 2024 we all mocked Trump for campaigning in bright blue New York and Cali towards the end and then well look at how that turned out. Now, we see him out at MULTIPLE rallies with a 35% approval rate which appears mind boggling (remember George W didn’t even appear LIVE at the RNC convention)…so I’m concerned that there’s something “they know that we don’t know”…or is this just David Plouffe bed wetting..
I feel you, but remember that it is always nerve-wracking in the final run up to the event! Recommend volunteering more or giving more donations; even in my red leaning Michigan county the Dem party has an active presence, so I volunteer with them to turn out every last blue vote in my little city.
I was so stressed in 2024, but doing what one can do help GOTV for Dems really is the best antidote. Volunteer efforts do help on the margins. While 2024 was terrible, there were quite a few Congressional races Dems won in California by very small numbers, and that North Carolina State Supreme Court held that seat by around 100 votes.
Multiple rallies that have lower attendance compared to 2024 that is per what Katy Tur of MS Now has reported. They include red parts of the country like Mobile, AL.
Trump has the ability to pull tricks up his sleeve but to date, it's only happened when he was on the ballot. When he's not, his ability to deliver for the GOP in the midterms is questionable.
The GOP won four Senate seats back in 2018 but still lost the House. This time around, there aren't any incumbent Democratic Senators like Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Heiti Heitkamp, and Joe Donnelly running in states difficult for Democrats to hold their seats. Michigan may be the only one that could have this problem but with Mike Rogers running away from Trump on the Iran War, I'm not convinced it will fall the same fate as FL, IN, MO, and ND.
I think it is far more likely that this is a "parents giving their toddler candy in the grocery store to prevent a total meltdown" situation than some grand plan. Trump craves the adoration of the crowds - even though they are dwindling - and his malignant narcissism prevents him from even considering that he is boat anchor around the necks of the GOP candidates he was brought into support. None but the most MAGA faithful even want to be on stage with him, IMO.
Even before his mental capacity deteriorated as we have seen in the last several years, any public appearance was always all about him and the candidates for whom he was stumping never got all that much time on stage!
There’s a big difference between map-expanding rallies in NY or Cali because you’re confident and rallying in Mobile (to a tiny crowd) so that you can say you held a rally
It's hard to see how any 1% path to victory for Scott Colom isn't obliterated by Ty Pinkins....unless somebody thinks that Pinkins is gonna pick off more votes from Hyde-Smith than Colom. That doesn't seem likely at all.
There's so little polling in Mississippi to know what's actually happening. The Democrat got pretty close in 2023 for the Governor's race. I see Pinkins pulling more votes of Hyde-Smith, people who can't vote R, but would never vote D. It's worth Dem's trying to put some money in that and South Carolina as they are cheap media markets.
Why do you think Pinkins would be more likely to pick off Hyde-Smith voters than Colom voters? I see it as the opposite. Pinkins is black and a former Democratic Senate nominee. If Republicans are gonna cast an anti-Hyde-Smith protest vote, why would they do so for Pinkins rather than Colom? Pinkins somewhat elevated profile as a former nominee makes me expect he'll be more likely to get black Democrats' votes than white Republicans.
Being that both Scott Colom and Ty Pinkins are black, it may be more about which candidate will inspire the black vote to turnout more.
Problem is, Pinkins is no Mike Espy. He got 37.2% of the vote when challenging Senator Roger Wicker back in 2024. Espy on the other hand challenged Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith more than once and held up better against her in all those times even in back in 2020 he lost the Senate election with 44% of the votes and she got 54% of the votes.
Naturally of course, Senator Wicker is an entrenched incumbent.
TN-7: Alex Joyner, a staffer for Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps, simultaneously collected money through his congressional staff work at the same time he served as Van Epps' campaign manager. While not illegal to serve in both capacities, it's unethical to make money from both at the same time, hence an ethics complaint from Democrat Darden Copeland, Van Epps' opponent.
Between p*ssing off Hispanic voters (broken promises about the economy, ICE, revocation of TPS) and Black voters (broken promises about the economy, the Callais decision) those "inroads" that Trump made with these groups in 2024 are not nearly as "permanent" as the GOP counted on when doing their mid-decade gerrymanders.
⬆️"SLF’s opening commercial isn’t available yet, but the same source said the ad campaign will “remind voters that Andrews is a Democrat.”
I know GOP voters have fierce party loyalty (to the point that they will vote against their own self-interest), but is that the best that they can come up with?
I'm actually not too optimistic about Dems winning a state-wide race in SC, even though I think Dr. Annie Andrews is wonderful! But I do like the prospects of Nancy Lacore in SC-01, which is an open race this year since the incumbent, Nancy Mace, opted to run for Governor instead. Having a great candidate like Dr. Andrews at the top of the ticket should help drive Democratic turnout in this district.
I was on a recent Zoom which featured Nancy Lacore and she was incredibly impressive. Plus her military background should help her with more conservative voters- IMO it is much harder to pin a "radical socialist" label on someone who served honorably her entire career in the military.
As of this morning, Postcards to Voters (https://postcardstovoters.org/) still had addresses for Nancy Lacore. So if you would like to help her campaign, please consider writing a few postcards for her like I did.
NY-GOV: Marist only has Hochul up 11, 53-42. One would think she would be up 15-20 given the environment and the state.
Could be an indicator of why GOP is burning millions for the two LI seats as they are counting on Blakeman winning Nassau and the county machine turning out GOP voters for him and the downballot candidates. Hochul's chronic underperformance could be an issue again for NY Dems.
Republicans are not short of money but they of winnable seats held by Democrats. So put 2 and 2 together. If Hochul were to win by 11 that would be nearly twice her margin of 2022.
GE Morris pointed out that anti incumbency bias is probably hurting Dem Govs in traditionally blue states, but hard not to see that in some others like FL and TX too.
Greg Walker — the GOP state senator who voted against Trump’s redistricting push, declined a White House invite, then lost to a Trump-backed challenger — is endorsing Democrat Beau Bayh in Indiana’s SOS race, per @playbookdc
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson recently were at a debate. Jackson is hammering Collins over her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.
Collins ends up attacking Jackson's history as being more pro-life and talks about being the only Republican who voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Eleni Kagan and Ketanji Jackson.
Here’s what concerns me (and maybe it shouldn’t); back in 2024 we all mocked Trump for campaigning in bright blue New York and Cali towards the end and then well look at how that turned out. Now, we see him out at MULTIPLE rallies with a 35% approval rate which appears mind boggling (remember George W didn’t even appear LIVE at the RNC convention)…so I’m concerned that there’s something “they know that we don’t know”…or is this just David Plouffe bed wetting..
I feel you, but remember that it is always nerve-wracking in the final run up to the event! Recommend volunteering more or giving more donations; even in my red leaning Michigan county the Dem party has an active presence, so I volunteer with them to turn out every last blue vote in my little city.
I was so stressed in 2024, but doing what one can do help GOTV for Dems really is the best antidote. Volunteer efforts do help on the margins. While 2024 was terrible, there were quite a few Congressional races Dems won in California by very small numbers, and that North Carolina State Supreme Court held that seat by around 100 votes.
NC resident here. I think it was ultimately just over 700 votes, which is mind-boggling when there were more that 5.5M votes cast in that race.
It's a good concern to have. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to rig it. But we have to power through, even if they do try.
That's called recency bias.
Multiple rallies that have lower attendance compared to 2024 that is per what Katy Tur of MS Now has reported. They include red parts of the country like Mobile, AL.
Trump has the ability to pull tricks up his sleeve but to date, it's only happened when he was on the ballot. When he's not, his ability to deliver for the GOP in the midterms is questionable.
The GOP won four Senate seats back in 2018 but still lost the House. This time around, there aren't any incumbent Democratic Senators like Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Heiti Heitkamp, and Joe Donnelly running in states difficult for Democrats to hold their seats. Michigan may be the only one that could have this problem but with Mike Rogers running away from Trump on the Iran War, I'm not convinced it will fall the same fate as FL, IN, MO, and ND.
I think it is far more likely that this is a "parents giving their toddler candy in the grocery store to prevent a total meltdown" situation than some grand plan. Trump craves the adoration of the crowds - even though they are dwindling - and his malignant narcissism prevents him from even considering that he is boat anchor around the necks of the GOP candidates he was brought into support. None but the most MAGA faithful even want to be on stage with him, IMO.
Even before his mental capacity deteriorated as we have seen in the last several years, any public appearance was always all about him and the candidates for whom he was stumping never got all that much time on stage!
There’s a big difference between map-expanding rallies in NY or Cali because you’re confident and rallying in Mobile (to a tiny crowd) so that you can say you held a rally
the felon will campaign in SC. Date TBD.
NY Gov Marist:
Hochul 53-42
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-new-york-october-2026/
It's hard to see how any 1% path to victory for Scott Colom isn't obliterated by Ty Pinkins....unless somebody thinks that Pinkins is gonna pick off more votes from Hyde-Smith than Colom. That doesn't seem likely at all.
There's so little polling in Mississippi to know what's actually happening. The Democrat got pretty close in 2023 for the Governor's race. I see Pinkins pulling more votes of Hyde-Smith, people who can't vote R, but would never vote D. It's worth Dem's trying to put some money in that and South Carolina as they are cheap media markets.
Why do you think Pinkins would be more likely to pick off Hyde-Smith voters than Colom voters? I see it as the opposite. Pinkins is black and a former Democratic Senate nominee. If Republicans are gonna cast an anti-Hyde-Smith protest vote, why would they do so for Pinkins rather than Colom? Pinkins somewhat elevated profile as a former nominee makes me expect he'll be more likely to get black Democrats' votes than white Republicans.
Being that both Scott Colom and Ty Pinkins are black, it may be more about which candidate will inspire the black vote to turnout more.
Problem is, Pinkins is no Mike Espy. He got 37.2% of the vote when challenging Senator Roger Wicker back in 2024. Espy on the other hand challenged Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith more than once and held up better against her in all those times even in back in 2020 he lost the Senate election with 44% of the votes and she got 54% of the votes.
Naturally of course, Senator Wicker is an entrenched incumbent.
https://nashvillebanner.com/2026/10/07/darden-copeland-van-epps-ethics-complaint/
TN-7: Alex Joyner, a staffer for Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps, simultaneously collected money through his congressional staff work at the same time he served as Van Epps' campaign manager. While not illegal to serve in both capacities, it's unethical to make money from both at the same time, hence an ethics complaint from Democrat Darden Copeland, Van Epps' opponent.
Only 3 of the 13 seats Rs redrew in their favor are basically sure things for them (LA-06, TN-09, TX-32)
3 are in play for Dems in a blue wave (AL-02, FL-09, TX-09)
6 are definitely in play for Dems (FL-14, FL-22, FL-25, NC-01, TX-34, TX-35)
1 is pretty solidly blue (TX-28)
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/2107630364386865442?s=20
Between p*ssing off Hispanic voters (broken promises about the economy, ICE, revocation of TPS) and Black voters (broken promises about the economy, the Callais decision) those "inroads" that Trump made with these groups in 2024 are not nearly as "permanent" as the GOP counted on when doing their mid-decade gerrymanders.
Even TN-09 is being targeted by the Dems now. We probably won’t win but I think it might be close.
⬆️"SLF’s opening commercial isn’t available yet, but the same source said the ad campaign will “remind voters that Andrews is a Democrat.”
I know GOP voters have fierce party loyalty (to the point that they will vote against their own self-interest), but is that the best that they can come up with?
I'm actually not too optimistic about Dems winning a state-wide race in SC, even though I think Dr. Annie Andrews is wonderful! But I do like the prospects of Nancy Lacore in SC-01, which is an open race this year since the incumbent, Nancy Mace, opted to run for Governor instead. Having a great candidate like Dr. Andrews at the top of the ticket should help drive Democratic turnout in this district.
I was on a recent Zoom which featured Nancy Lacore and she was incredibly impressive. Plus her military background should help her with more conservative voters- IMO it is much harder to pin a "radical socialist" label on someone who served honorably her entire career in the military.
As of this morning, Postcards to Voters (https://postcardstovoters.org/) still had addresses for Nancy Lacore. So if you would like to help her campaign, please consider writing a few postcards for her like I did.
NY-GOV: Marist only has Hochul up 11, 53-42. One would think she would be up 15-20 given the environment and the state.
Could be an indicator of why GOP is burning millions for the two LI seats as they are counting on Blakeman winning Nassau and the county machine turning out GOP voters for him and the downballot candidates. Hochul's chronic underperformance could be an issue again for NY Dems.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-new-york-october-2026/
Republicans are not short of money but they of winnable seats held by Democrats. So put 2 and 2 together. If Hochul were to win by 11 that would be nearly twice her margin of 2022.
GE Morris pointed out that anti incumbency bias is probably hurting Dem Govs in traditionally blue states, but hard not to see that in some others like FL and TX too.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2107806503457702394
Greg Walker — the GOP state senator who voted against Trump’s redistricting push, declined a White House invite, then lost to a Trump-backed challenger — is endorsing Democrat Beau Bayh in Indiana’s SOS race, per @playbookdc
ME-SEN:
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson recently were at a debate. Jackson is hammering Collins over her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.
Collins ends up attacking Jackson's history as being more pro-life and talks about being the only Republican who voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Eleni Kagan and Ketanji Jackson.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/OlmXU9cwpv8?ra=m
Someone’s nervous about the effect of the Kavanaugh vote.
Hopefully voters will see right through this “moderate” charade.