Although this is a non-partisan race, it clearly is partisan in the end when you consider Sonia Shaw’s entire platform is about getting trans kids out of girls bathrooms, combating radical ideologies in schools and combating the fatigue of mask mandates. She’s also endorsed by just about the entire GOP in California and even Riley Gaines.
I am not hesitating to vote for Richard Barrera as CA Superintendent.
With Shaw’s agenda, although she doesn’t say it in these words, she’s talking about how K-12 schools have been forever affected by the mask mandates, social distancing, shelter in place, etc.
There is a valid point to be made about this because children at the age when the pandemic hit were having a hard time developing and learning through remote education. However, I don’t think Shaw is really going to moderate things as Superintendent.
TN-Gov: Speaking of potential independent spoilers, a 4th candidate, professor Lauren Pinkston, is picking up steam as an alternative to Democrat Jerri Green. A 4-way between Blackburn, Green, Hatley and Pinkston would be quite interesting.
AL-Gov: Sen. Tommy Tuberville recently released a 20 minute Senate speech decrying that trans people and furries should not be air traffic controllers. It's on his YouTube, but there's no media coverage.
In other news, the Oceanic nation of Nauru, one of the 195 UN recognized countries, renamed to Naoero (now-air-oh).
Over on Reddit, people are calling Tuberville the dumbest member of Congress. I still remember when Louie Gohmert was called the dumbest. Seems the title passes down to different incompetent and/or deranged members of Congress over time.
They stabbed news consumers in the back. Newsom deserves a lot more of the blame. He was bad mouthing the lawsuit from the start and groveling to the Ellisons.
I 100% blame Newsom more. I’ve lived in California long enough to not trust him on anything of significance. He’s blocked plenty of progressive policies if they go against his donor base. But Bonta is spineless to cave to that pressure. He has agency and ultimately this was his choice. I sure hope he doesn’t want a promotion because Bonta will not get my vote, ever.
Considering Paramount Skydance was close to moving out of California, this deal Bonta reached is more of a lesser of two evils. The ripple effects of the move would have been much worse in terms of job losses. I'm not saying this as endorsing Bonta's compromise with the company so much as not being able to fathom a big film studio moving out of Hollywood.
I would certainly like CA Democrats to show more spine and push to get film studios back to being film studios again with less consolidation. I've never trusted Newsom since he was Mayor of San Francisco and that hasn't changed here. He didn't do anything to revitalize film production in the city back in the 2000's even after efforts on his part to get the ball rolling.
Ellison was bluffing. They weren’t actually going to leave California. The industry is here. It’s always been here. The infrastructure is here. It would be the height of hubris to believe that just because you have a lot of money that you can shift an entire industry base to a different state. He would have bitten off more than he could chew.
In an ideal world if Ellison tried to move the state should seize the Studio Lots and sell them at a bargain to companies that will actually make things here in LA. They should fund more independent productions.
Don’t know if this is still the case, but I believe part of the agreement involved creating an independent editorial board for both CNN and CBS. Whether or not that actually happens, who knows, and I do think it is quite a bit unlikely (although I heard Norm Eisen is setting up a watchdog to ensure compliance), and I’m also pissed at Bonta and Newsom for caving, but it’s the closest thing we have to a silver lining.
Oh no, I wasn’t arguing monopolies are good. I’m strongly anti-monopoly myself. I was just noting the existence of this editorial board if it means anything.
An independent board in this case would be more useful if media companies weren’t so large and corporations in general didn’t wield influence as they have been doing for decades.
I’d like an independent board to find ways to improve the Hollywood film industry so it can sustain itself with lower cost of living and more film productions. Anything as it relates to anti-monopolistic recommendations seems more like a waste of time.
The outcome of this race will determine the future of gerrymandering in the state, and whether or not Ossoff would be able to resign and have his seat filled by a Democrat. We can't let the GOP retain this seat
If we win, the R's will re-draw the legislative districts again before KLB takes office. Who knows, maybe they will also strip powers from the Gov as R's did in WI and NC.
Possible and probably likely. They'd have a lot to do in a short amount of time. I'm somewhat curious if Kemp would be game for that or if he'd worry about it haunting his future political career, especially if he tries to run for senate and has to deal with a pissed off coalition of black voters and independents.
If anything, frankly, that just means there's even *more* incentive to boost her and ensure she wins and by a large margin, so that they can try to flip the state legislature and undo whatever ratfucking the GOP tries in the lame duck period before the new legislature is seated. An uphill battle probably, since the state legislature is already pretty gerrymandered, but I think there are a handful of Lean R seats that could be flipped in the current environment, especially if Ossoff himself runs up a near double digit or more victory at the top.
Obviously money is needed everywhere, but to me it seems like Bottoms is getting vastly outspent to the point where her poll numbers are dipping and outside intervention could be the difference between a win or loss. Jolly and Acton seem to be holding up despite spending disadvantages but yes, $$$ there too.
If Ossoff is able to raise the tide high enough, KKB will get carried across the line. I don't think spending will be the deciding factor here. It just doesn't seem like there would be enough ticket-splitters for a 10-point off win paired with a Jackson win.
Crypto spending against Brown, even after he backed away from some of his 2024 criticism, and in a year when the public has turned heavily against Crypto/AI/Data Centers, should signal to Democrats that there is little upside or gain from trying to compromise with this industry.
I think it's just revenge for the Clarity Act failing. Ironically if the Republicans had just agreed to the provisions that limited Trump's ability to enrich himself it would have probably passed.
Luckily, polling seems to indicate that that is one of the least important issues for voters (if I remember right), so the GOP’s attacks likely just come off as desperate.
No, but you have to consider that actual malice has to be proven (I know it's present for sure, but it's not a cinch to establish in court), plus the Streisand Effect.
Has public opinion turned against Crypto? AI/Data Centers for sure, but not sure I've seen that manifest in opposition to Crypto (other than the extent to which it relies on data centers, obviously).
I think it sort of went back behind the curtain after the great NFT/Crypto gold rush of a few years ago - remember when basically every other ad during the 2022 Super Bowl was a Crypto ad?
I think Mark's point is there are state specific circumstances at play in MN (the financial scandal) which is blunting the blue wave there, which should be helping Tafoya a good amount.
I think Klobuchar at the top of the ticket blunts some of that but we'll see. I'm not in the nothing to worry about camp for MN. More worried about row offices then the senate seat tho.
Maybe I'm just pessimistic about Florida but that feels slightly overtuned?
Idk. So much is different this year that I can see it, but in 2022 Florida was one of a few states where polling *underestimated* Republican support, rather than overestimated. I still think it's in Lean R territory, which in of itself is already far more competitive than I was expecting the state to be when campaign season began.
Thanks to Jeff and David for posting the Pro Publica link about my very favorite Mainer, Susan Collins. I read it last night and was going to post and recommend it but no need!
The piece is long but worth it. It reads like a novel. And of course Collins was in it up to her eyeballs. I hope Jackson makes good use of the news.
This is in addition to several other GOP endorsements they've made, in addition to pimping RFK Jr.'s agenda. But is it really good business? To paraphrase Michael Jordan, Democrats buy burgers too.
They were headquartered in Indianapolis, but I’m not sure if that’s true anymore. When I was in high school they were great – they had a large menu with salads and coleslaw and all kinds of interesting stuff. Now it’s just a greasy burger, terrible fries, and milkshake place.
I buy burgers at In & Out, Habit, Five Guys and Shake Shack. And local chains like Barney’s and Bongo Burger. Beto O’Rourke made Whataburger a big thing to talk about at the campaign trail so when I eventually travel to Texas, I will get a burger there.
But Steak ‘N Shake? What, do you eat steak while having a chocolate shake? That’s not exactly an inspiring name for a restaurant chain.
I thought the same things when I tried Freddy's Steakburgers, of which there are a couple fairly close to me (in Northern Virginia): good, but not recognizably different from other ground beef.
I once stayed in a motel for a couple of days in Texas that was right next to a Whataburger; being cheap and convenient I almost lived on it. Never been to In-n-Out (Las Vegas is the only place I've ever been to that has them); I'm curious since everyone says it's so great, though maybe it can't live up to those expectations. One Midwestern chain I've never tried but would like to is Culver's.
I can definitely vouch for Culver's. I just ate at one on Saturday. Top-notch for fast food....and has the crowds to prove it.
I've also never had In 'N' Out but have long wanted to given the way my friend who went to grad school in Cali raved about it. I had Whataburger once at the Dallas airport and it was pretty solid.
Doesn't surprise me. They have a reputation for being notoriously stingy with employees. The one around here had to close for three weeks because they didn't have enough employees to run the joint. It took three weeks of closure for them to crack and finally raise their pay to what other fast food places in the area were paying.
State Navigate has released three more polls: two for State Senate Districts 36 & 40, and one for State House District 41. It shows a very close race in all three, with Reps leading in the State Senate Districts by 3, while the Dem is leading in the State House District by 1.
From PA-01, Fitzpatrick's campaign has been getting negative ratings from people about negative and misleading campaign literature and signs about Bob Harvie, including his tenure as county commissioner and an FBI investigation that ended in 2022, which included Harvie and others testifying before a grand jury.
Every day, I feel as if Fitzpatrick is sweating more and more about his chances because if he wasn't, he wouldn't have gone this negative since Scott Wallace in 2018. Here's a gifted Philly Inquirer article that goes more into Fitzpatrick's activities then I ever could.
Something interesting about State Navigate is that while they were pretty accurate with their seat estimates in the Virginia and New Jersey state legislative elections, they did undercount Democrats by a bit, so these races being close/having the Republican lead isn't necessarily a bad sign.
Oh, of course not. And in the case of the 36th district, this is a really good sign for James Malone, who won by only 526 votes in the special election last year in a seat Trump won by 15 points.
Texas Marist:
Talarico 50-44
Hinojosa 49-46
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-september-2026/
NY Gov Siena:
Hochul 50-41
https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-50-blakeman-41/
That CA Superintendent poll and MD Question 3 poll don’t look good.
Superintendent leading by 6 with lots of undecideds doesn't seem bad to me.
Perhaps.
Superintendent is officially nonpartisan so polling is going to look weird.
I’m not worried about the CA Superintendent poll.
Although this is a non-partisan race, it clearly is partisan in the end when you consider Sonia Shaw’s entire platform is about getting trans kids out of girls bathrooms, combating radical ideologies in schools and combating the fatigue of mask mandates. She’s also endorsed by just about the entire GOP in California and even Riley Gaines.
I am not hesitating to vote for Richard Barrera as CA Superintendent.
Wait, the GOP are still going on about mask mandates? Are they just living in eternal 2021?
Anyway good to know. I don’t think CA will go Republican statewide any time soon, not in this environment anyway.
With Shaw’s agenda, although she doesn’t say it in these words, she’s talking about how K-12 schools have been forever affected by the mask mandates, social distancing, shelter in place, etc.
There is a valid point to be made about this because children at the age when the pandemic hit were having a hard time developing and learning through remote education. However, I don’t think Shaw is really going to moderate things as Superintendent.
My apologies from NY here as to why Shapiro can be up 20 and my governor leading by just single digits in a way bluer state
Apologies? Come on. Besides, 50-41 when there are no more undecideds will be double digits.
She's never been all that popular and Democrats have held the office for 20 years.
To be fair, PA Democrats have held the governor's office for almost 24 years apart from 4, but their governor is usually popular.
Incumbent exhaustion and more of an internal polarization in New York....ironically against an incumbent Governor from Buffalo.
Well guess I spoke too soon as that Quinnipiac poll just dropped…
Here are the most recent GCB polls since the start of September from different pollsters:
YouGov: D+14
Marquette: D+13
NPR/Marist: D+12
Quinnipiac: D+11
Verasight: D+10
Quantus: D+9
Cygnal: D+9
CNN/SSRS: D+8
Times/Siena: D+8
Rasmussen: D+8
Ipsos: D+8
Beacon Research: D+7
Morning Consult: D+7
Zogby: D+6
The Rainey Center: D+6
Hart Research Associates: D+4
Average is roughly a 9 point lead.
TN-Gov: Speaking of potential independent spoilers, a 4th candidate, professor Lauren Pinkston, is picking up steam as an alternative to Democrat Jerri Green. A 4-way between Blackburn, Green, Hatley and Pinkston would be quite interesting.
AL-Gov: Sen. Tommy Tuberville recently released a 20 minute Senate speech decrying that trans people and furries should not be air traffic controllers. It's on his YouTube, but there's no media coverage.
In other news, the Oceanic nation of Nauru, one of the 195 UN recognized countries, renamed to Naoero (now-air-oh).
I can’t even imagine what the world is thinking when they hear shit like what Tuberville is saying.
“There goes one of the dumbest people on the planet. His skull must be filled with dust bunnies.”
wasn't he a football player in a different time? took way too many hits to the head! nothing left!!
All the way back in 1975. He's been a coach pretty much since then.
Over on Reddit, people are calling Tuberville the dumbest member of Congress. I still remember when Louie Gohmert was called the dumbest. Seems the title passes down to different incompetent and/or deranged members of Congress over time.
Tuberville/Gohmert, the winning ticket for the GOP in 2028. /s
Forget it Jake, it's Alabama.
IA-Gov: Just saw a post that read "Rob Sand attacked by arsonists, blames Rob Glass."
NC Senate YouGov:
Cooper 53-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nc_20260915.pdf
Bonta and Newsom stab Entertainment Industry workers in the back. I can’t bring myself to vote for a Republican but I sure as hell won’t vote for Bonta and I’ll encourage a robust primary challenge in 2030. https://deadline.com/2026/09/paramount-settles-antitrust-suit-to-seal-warner-bros-deal-1237109223/?fbclid=IwY2xjawUeRvtwZG9mA2V4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDzQwOTk2MjYyMzA4NTYwOQABHonHPEyIrRK7FH-tUq6R9D3Nr-j4DIuKMlUlAKyz3lxiIiCGUQfHgVeeyCrK_aem_XE1-0_GzvTOTkacnk-sJhA
They stabbed news consumers in the back. Newsom deserves a lot more of the blame. He was bad mouthing the lawsuit from the start and groveling to the Ellisons.
I 100% blame Newsom more. I’ve lived in California long enough to not trust him on anything of significance. He’s blocked plenty of progressive policies if they go against his donor base. But Bonta is spineless to cave to that pressure. He has agency and ultimately this was his choice. I sure hope he doesn’t want a promotion because Bonta will not get my vote, ever.
Considering Paramount Skydance was close to moving out of California, this deal Bonta reached is more of a lesser of two evils. The ripple effects of the move would have been much worse in terms of job losses. I'm not saying this as endorsing Bonta's compromise with the company so much as not being able to fathom a big film studio moving out of Hollywood.
I would certainly like CA Democrats to show more spine and push to get film studios back to being film studios again with less consolidation. I've never trusted Newsom since he was Mayor of San Francisco and that hasn't changed here. He didn't do anything to revitalize film production in the city back in the 2000's even after efforts on his part to get the ball rolling.
Ellison was bluffing. They weren’t actually going to leave California. The industry is here. It’s always been here. The infrastructure is here. It would be the height of hubris to believe that just because you have a lot of money that you can shift an entire industry base to a different state. He would have bitten off more than he could chew.
In an ideal world if Ellison tried to move the state should seize the Studio Lots and sell them at a bargain to companies that will actually make things here in LA. They should fund more independent productions.
If California can't enforce anti-trust laws, no state can. I don't believe they can't.
Don’t know if this is still the case, but I believe part of the agreement involved creating an independent editorial board for both CNN and CBS. Whether or not that actually happens, who knows, and I do think it is quite a bit unlikely (although I heard Norm Eisen is setting up a watchdog to ensure compliance), and I’m also pissed at Bonta and Newsom for caving, but it’s the closest thing we have to a silver lining.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/21/business/media/cnn-cbs-paramount-david-ellison.html
The thing is, private monopolies are bad, period, and no independent boards could address that problem.
Oh no, I wasn’t arguing monopolies are good. I’m strongly anti-monopoly myself. I was just noting the existence of this editorial board if it means anything.
An independent board in this case would be more useful if media companies weren’t so large and corporations in general didn’t wield influence as they have been doing for decades.
I’d like an independent board to find ways to improve the Hollywood film industry so it can sustain itself with lower cost of living and more film productions. Anything as it relates to anti-monopolistic recommendations seems more like a waste of time.
In no way did I have the impression that you were arguing in favor of monopolies!
And somehow it gets even worse: https://www.semafor.com/article/09/23/2026/paramount-weighs-tapping-musk-for-equity-investment
Oh dear god.
Georgia YouGov
Ossoff 52-42
Jackson 46-44
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf
The DGA does not need to spend in a single race other than this one
And Florida and Ohio.
The outcome of this race will determine the future of gerrymandering in the state, and whether or not Ossoff would be able to resign and have his seat filled by a Democrat. We can't let the GOP retain this seat
If we win, the R's will re-draw the legislative districts again before KLB takes office. Who knows, maybe they will also strip powers from the Gov as R's did in WI and NC.
Possible and probably likely. They'd have a lot to do in a short amount of time. I'm somewhat curious if Kemp would be game for that or if he'd worry about it haunting his future political career, especially if he tries to run for senate and has to deal with a pissed off coalition of black voters and independents.
If anything, frankly, that just means there's even *more* incentive to boost her and ensure she wins and by a large margin, so that they can try to flip the state legislature and undo whatever ratfucking the GOP tries in the lame duck period before the new legislature is seated. An uphill battle probably, since the state legislature is already pretty gerrymandered, but I think there are a handful of Lean R seats that could be flipped in the current environment, especially if Ossoff himself runs up a near double digit or more victory at the top.
Why do you say that?
Obviously money is needed everywhere, but to me it seems like Bottoms is getting vastly outspent to the point where her poll numbers are dipping and outside intervention could be the difference between a win or loss. Jolly and Acton seem to be holding up despite spending disadvantages but yes, $$$ there too.
Ossoff's raised a shitload and almost everybody has accepted that the race is a foregone conclusion. I wonder if he could transfer some to Bottoms?
If Ossoff is able to raise the tide high enough, KKB will get carried across the line. I don't think spending will be the deciding factor here. It just doesn't seem like there would be enough ticket-splitters for a 10-point off win paired with a Jackson win.
Crypto spending against Brown, even after he backed away from some of his 2024 criticism, and in a year when the public has turned heavily against Crypto/AI/Data Centers, should signal to Democrats that there is little upside or gain from trying to compromise with this industry.
I think it's just revenge for the Clarity Act failing. Ironically if the Republicans had just agreed to the provisions that limited Trump's ability to enrich himself it would have probably passed.
Here in Ohio we are seeing ad after ad about how Sherrod Brown is trying to force minors to have transgender surgery.
Luckily, polling seems to indicate that that is one of the least important issues for voters (if I remember right), so the GOP’s attacks likely just come off as desperate.
He should sue for libel. They shouldn't be able to get away with lying like that
No, but you have to consider that actual malice has to be proven (I know it's present for sure, but it's not a cinch to establish in court), plus the Streisand Effect.
I don't think it would be hard to prove the accusation is false, defamatory and with reckless disregard for the truth, the Sullivan test
Has public opinion turned against Crypto? AI/Data Centers for sure, but not sure I've seen that manifest in opposition to Crypto (other than the extent to which it relies on data centers, obviously).
Plenty of Gen Z, including a former tenant of mine, are into cryptocurrency. It’s more hype and less substance than anything.
However, crypto may end up feeling the ripple effects from the pushback against data centers. If this is the case, good.
I think it sort of went back behind the curtain after the great NFT/Crypto gold rush of a few years ago - remember when basically every other ad during the 2022 Super Bowl was a Crypto ad?
Senate: Cook shifts Georgia to Likely D, Kansas to Lean R and South Carolina to Likely R, all in favor of Democrats.
I'm genuinely surprised they didn't shift MN-Sen toward Tafoya.
If they did that they might as well have just kept these ratings the same.
I think Mark's point is there are state specific circumstances at play in MN (the financial scandal) which is blunting the blue wave there, which should be helping Tafoya a good amount.
I think Klobuchar at the top of the ticket blunts some of that but we'll see. I'm not in the nothing to worry about camp for MN. More worried about row offices then the senate seat tho.
FL Gov Decision Desk moves it to TOSS-UP https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/2102786507085922466?s=20
That's quite aggressive! What's their basis for rating it higher than Lean-R or, if they use it,
Tilt-R?
Maybe I'm just pessimistic about Florida but that feels slightly overtuned?
Idk. So much is different this year that I can see it, but in 2022 Florida was one of a few states where polling *underestimated* Republican support, rather than overestimated. I still think it's in Lean R territory, which in of itself is already far more competitive than I was expecting the state to be when campaign season began.
Which year’s polling avg didn’t underestimate R support in Florida? 2016? 18? 20? 22? 24?
I just lost count.
Thanks to Jeff and David for posting the Pro Publica link about my very favorite Mainer, Susan Collins. I read it last night and was going to post and recommend it but no need!
The piece is long but worth it. It reads like a novel. And of course Collins was in it up to her eyeballs. I hope Jackson makes good use of the news.
Pro Publica has implied that there will be another part to the story naming other elected officials.
NC-01: More reason to boycott Steak 'n Shake, if you can. (There are none near me so no loss here.)
https://x.com/SteaknShake/status/2098930986096439741
This is in addition to several other GOP endorsements they've made, in addition to pimping RFK Jr.'s agenda. But is it really good business? To paraphrase Michael Jordan, Democrats buy burgers too.
I went *once* to a newer location in Morgantown, WV and hated it. I love burgers.
Never even heard of them. Must be a southern thing.
Very Midwestern and South
They were headquartered in Indianapolis, but I’m not sure if that’s true anymore. When I was in high school they were great – they had a large menu with salads and coleslaw and all kinds of interesting stuff. Now it’s just a greasy burger, terrible fries, and milkshake place.
Still HQ'd in Indy, apparently.
Haven't you heard? Salads are woke!
Mostly in malls; in my experience, I think I've only seen one standalone in the Midwest.
Really? In Indiana I've only ever seen them as standalones
It always amazes me how many chains I thought were national have no presence in the northeast.
I buy burgers at In & Out, Habit, Five Guys and Shake Shack. And local chains like Barney’s and Bongo Burger. Beto O’Rourke made Whataburger a big thing to talk about at the campaign trail so when I eventually travel to Texas, I will get a burger there.
But Steak ‘N Shake? What, do you eat steak while having a chocolate shake? That’s not exactly an inspiring name for a restaurant chain.
It's burgers made with ground steak. Personally I can't taste the difference between that and regular ground beef.
I thought the same things when I tried Freddy's Steakburgers, of which there are a couple fairly close to me (in Northern Virginia): good, but not recognizably different from other ground beef.
I once stayed in a motel for a couple of days in Texas that was right next to a Whataburger; being cheap and convenient I almost lived on it. Never been to In-n-Out (Las Vegas is the only place I've ever been to that has them); I'm curious since everyone says it's so great, though maybe it can't live up to those expectations. One Midwestern chain I've never tried but would like to is Culver's.
I can definitely vouch for Culver's. I just ate at one on Saturday. Top-notch for fast food....and has the crowds to prove it.
I've also never had In 'N' Out but have long wanted to given the way my friend who went to grad school in Cali raved about it. I had Whataburger once at the Dallas airport and it was pretty solid.
Ahhh ok. The name sounded strange at first but what you're describing about the name makes sense.
Doesn't surprise me. They have a reputation for being notoriously stingy with employees. The one around here had to close for three weeks because they didn't have enough employees to run the joint. It took three weeks of closure for them to crack and finally raise their pay to what other fast food places in the area were paying.
From PA:
State Navigate has released three more polls: two for State Senate Districts 36 & 40, and one for State House District 41. It shows a very close race in all three, with Reps leading in the State Senate Districts by 3, while the Dem is leading in the State House District by 1.
https://articles.statenavigate.com/pa/state-navigate-polls-show-uphill-climb-for-pennsylvania-democrats-in-state-senate/
From PA-01, Fitzpatrick's campaign has been getting negative ratings from people about negative and misleading campaign literature and signs about Bob Harvie, including his tenure as county commissioner and an FBI investigation that ended in 2022, which included Harvie and others testifying before a grand jury.
Every day, I feel as if Fitzpatrick is sweating more and more about his chances because if he wasn't, he wouldn't have gone this negative since Scott Wallace in 2018. Here's a gifted Philly Inquirer article that goes more into Fitzpatrick's activities then I ever could.
https://share.inquirer.com/vK7C4S
Something interesting about State Navigate is that while they were pretty accurate with their seat estimates in the Virginia and New Jersey state legislative elections, they did undercount Democrats by a bit, so these races being close/having the Republican lead isn't necessarily a bad sign.
Oh, of course not. And in the case of the 36th district, this is a really good sign for James Malone, who won by only 526 votes in the special election last year in a seat Trump won by 15 points.
Also, the environment is looking more like 1994/2006/2010 than 2018; these seats are gone for the GOP if that's the case.
NY Gov Quinnipiac:
Hochul 58-39
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3967
Thanks. Shall we "apologize" that the margin is below 20?
next time I am in NYC buy me a beer and will call it even
Hah!