I think there's a good chance of that, but I think there's not a certainty that this will be what near-future elections come down to. What animates various parts of the electorate and what dominates the narrative of an election is not static. I'd argue that in this century that culture war has only been a dominant coalition shifting fact…
I think there's a good chance of that, but I think there's not a certainty that this will be what near-future elections come down to. What animates various parts of the electorate and what dominates the narrative of an election is not static. I'd argue that in this century that culture war has only been a dominant coalition shifting factor since 2016. Even when eg same-sex marriage was an issue that republicans were using to animate their base, like in 2004, it was far more of a background factor than the culture war topics are today. Dominate electoral narratives went from terrorism, to war, to the economy, and now culture war. What's next?
That changed. This will eventually too. The critical question is: when? Which I do not know. But it could be by 2028 or 2032 that we have a new dominate factor. Or it could stick around a bit longer.
Oh definitely. The culture war keeps on reinventing itself and will continue to. And it will always put the progressive party at a competitive disadvantage when the majority hates cultural change.
Maybe. But it seems to me that it is the reactionary MAGA movement that is seeking cultural change – truly radical cultural change.
Their very slogan, "Make America Great Again", allows adherents to imagine the MAGA-Republican Party striving for whatever past Golden Age they choose to project that slogan onto.
What I was trying to say is that it's not guaranteed that any culture war issue will be what dominates discussions in any specific election going forward. These things come and go in waves. At some point in the unknown future, an election's discourse and narrative will instead be dominated by something else, something that isn't a culture war. What thing something else is, or when that happens, I do not know. But it will happen.
Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because of economics, and if the economy is in the toilet in 2028 and there are real elections, the Republicans will probably get drubbed for that reason, regardless of how many bogeymen they trot out to try to scare people.
Republicans rigging the election is probably dependent on them keeping the race close enough that just a little bit of meddling can tip it in their favor. Which in turn is dependent on the cult of MAGA remaining fully intact through 2028.
If Trump loses his economic goodwill things could change in a heartbeat.
I don't agree with you. If Republicans are allowed to arbitrarily annul several thousand duly counted (and repeatedly recounted) votes this time, the same or other Republicans are likely to try to annul a much larger number of votes next time.
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that it's OK to annul several thousand duly cast and counted votes, why do you think they'd rule that several million couldn't be annulled? The way I see it, either the Supreme Court rules against this vote theft or democracy is _OVER_ in the U.S.! I'm referring to the North Carolina Supreme Court election case.
Aside from the fact that Riggs is likely to win anyways, I am highly skeptical SCOTUS will side with the GOP in this case. I don't see Roberts or Barrett voting to throw out the votes and don't expect Kavanaugh to do so either (though less confidently).
Focusing on presidential elections: I wouldn't call any of 2000-2012 as culture war elections. Don't think 1992-1996 count either. Outside of our immediate history I'd think 1968-1972 or 1980 depending on how you assess things, were the next most recent culture war focused elections.
The focal point of elections change over time. The present might feel long-enduring, but it rarely is — for good and for ill.
1980 was above all about stagflation, and secondarily, the Iran hostage crisis that Reagan (or at least his people) ensured would continue till the day he was inaugurated. Manufactured culture war issues (because remember, Carter was a genuine born again Christian while Reagan hardly ever went to church) were played up, but it's hard to argue that they accounted for the margin of victory. So in that sense, Reagan was as much a cultural warrior as G.W. Bush, not more. But he was historically probably more important because he was the first victorious presidential candidate to blatantly pander to people who wanted to impose their reactionary evangelical values on everyone, and his presidency was seen as very successful.
I think there's a good chance of that, but I think there's not a certainty that this will be what near-future elections come down to. What animates various parts of the electorate and what dominates the narrative of an election is not static. I'd argue that in this century that culture war has only been a dominant coalition shifting factor since 2016. Even when eg same-sex marriage was an issue that republicans were using to animate their base, like in 2004, it was far more of a background factor than the culture war topics are today. Dominate electoral narratives went from terrorism, to war, to the economy, and now culture war. What's next?
That changed. This will eventually too. The critical question is: when? Which I do not know. But it could be by 2028 or 2032 that we have a new dominate factor. Or it could stick around a bit longer.
Oh definitely. The culture war keeps on reinventing itself and will continue to. And it will always put the progressive party at a competitive disadvantage when the majority hates cultural change.
Maybe. But it seems to me that it is the reactionary MAGA movement that is seeking cultural change – truly radical cultural change.
Their very slogan, "Make America Great Again", allows adherents to imagine the MAGA-Republican Party striving for whatever past Golden Age they choose to project that slogan onto.
That is true, but isn't what I was getting at.
What I was trying to say is that it's not guaranteed that any culture war issue will be what dominates discussions in any specific election going forward. These things come and go in waves. At some point in the unknown future, an election's discourse and narrative will instead be dominated by something else, something that isn't a culture war. What thing something else is, or when that happens, I do not know. But it will happen.
I submit that any time a culture war doesn't dominate an election cycle represents a vacation from history...and that the moment will be fleeting.
Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because of economics, and if the economy is in the toilet in 2028 and there are real elections, the Republicans will probably get drubbed for that reason, regardless of how many bogeymen they trot out to try to scare people.
Republicans rigging the election is probably dependent on them keeping the race close enough that just a little bit of meddling can tip it in their favor. Which in turn is dependent on the cult of MAGA remaining fully intact through 2028.
If Trump loses his economic goodwill things could change in a heartbeat.
I don't agree with you. If Republicans are allowed to arbitrarily annul several thousand duly counted (and repeatedly recounted) votes this time, the same or other Republicans are likely to try to annul a much larger number of votes next time.
I have my doubts they'll succeed, though, if they try.
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that it's OK to annul several thousand duly cast and counted votes, why do you think they'd rule that several million couldn't be annulled? The way I see it, either the Supreme Court rules against this vote theft or democracy is _OVER_ in the U.S.! I'm referring to the North Carolina Supreme Court election case.
Aside from the fact that Riggs is likely to win anyways, I am highly skeptical SCOTUS will side with the GOP in this case. I don't see Roberts or Barrett voting to throw out the votes and don't expect Kavanaugh to do so either (though less confidently).
I think a 5-4 decision is likely, but whether Riggs wins anyway is not the main point, and I hope people understand that.
Focusing on presidential elections: I wouldn't call any of 2000-2012 as culture war elections. Don't think 1992-1996 count either. Outside of our immediate history I'd think 1968-1972 or 1980 depending on how you assess things, were the next most recent culture war focused elections.
The focal point of elections change over time. The present might feel long-enduring, but it rarely is — for good and for ill.
1980 was above all about stagflation, and secondarily, the Iran hostage crisis that Reagan (or at least his people) ensured would continue till the day he was inaugurated. Manufactured culture war issues (because remember, Carter was a genuine born again Christian while Reagan hardly ever went to church) were played up, but it's hard to argue that they accounted for the margin of victory. So in that sense, Reagan was as much a cultural warrior as G.W. Bush, not more. But he was historically probably more important because he was the first victorious presidential candidate to blatantly pander to people who wanted to impose their reactionary evangelical values on everyone, and his presidency was seen as very successful.