The risk there is that if the election nears and those people don't think Trump is likely to win, they may amend their decision for vote for Democratic Senate candidates downballot. I suspect that may have happened in 2016, particularly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The risk there is that if the election nears and those people don't think Trump is likely to win, they may amend their decision for vote for Democratic Senate candidates downballot. I suspect that may have happened in 2016, particularly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Yeah, the 2016 idea that Dems did worse in the Senate because Clinton was expected to win is what brought the thought to mind. Not sure if I buy it or not but it’s a reasonable theory. However, the last poll I remember seeing showed that most people predict Harris will win (and electoral-vote had an interesting theory that the polls about who people think is going to win are actually more reliable than asking who they will vote for) so if that were the case I’m not sure we’d still see the discrepancies in the polls.
In the back of my mind I’m wondering if it’s somehow the Trump fanatics causing the effect but I can’t figure out how that would work. I don’t see them stating in a poll they would vote for a Dem in the downballot races and there isn’t enough of a difference in the undecided voters to account for it.
But maybe it’s more the undecided voters, who don’t really like Trump and what he stands for, but also long for the good old pre-COVID, pre-inflation days and think he’ll magically bring prices down but they don’t want him to be able to do anything else.
Kind of an overreach of a hypothesis imo. Yes there are voters who hedge like that, but they’re so rare. Voters aren’t that complicated, they vote for who they like and/or the policies they want.
The risk there is that if the election nears and those people don't think Trump is likely to win, they may amend their decision for vote for Democratic Senate candidates downballot. I suspect that may have happened in 2016, particularly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
I don’t think this will ever be the case with Trump now — Dems are shell-shocked after 2016, and Republicans are arrogant poll-deniers.
Yeah, the 2016 idea that Dems did worse in the Senate because Clinton was expected to win is what brought the thought to mind. Not sure if I buy it or not but it’s a reasonable theory. However, the last poll I remember seeing showed that most people predict Harris will win (and electoral-vote had an interesting theory that the polls about who people think is going to win are actually more reliable than asking who they will vote for) so if that were the case I’m not sure we’d still see the discrepancies in the polls.
In the back of my mind I’m wondering if it’s somehow the Trump fanatics causing the effect but I can’t figure out how that would work. I don’t see them stating in a poll they would vote for a Dem in the downballot races and there isn’t enough of a difference in the undecided voters to account for it.
But maybe it’s more the undecided voters, who don’t really like Trump and what he stands for, but also long for the good old pre-COVID, pre-inflation days and think he’ll magically bring prices down but they don’t want him to be able to do anything else.
Kind of an overreach of a hypothesis imo. Yes there are voters who hedge like that, but they’re so rare. Voters aren’t that complicated, they vote for who they like and/or the policies they want.