A recent poll by the conservative Senate Leadership Fund super PAC showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 15 points in a GOP primary — but narrowly losing a hypothetical general election against Allred, according to two people familiar with the survey.
A recent poll by the conservative Senate Leadership Fund super PAC showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 15 points in a GOP primary — but narrowly losing a hypothetical general election against Allred, according to two people familiar with the survey.
Seems like a cheorographed "leak" by SLF to get Cornyn some help. Not saying Paxton wouldn't be vulnerable, but after last November I remain highly skeptical about anything approaching Blexas.
Do we have anyone who could make a credible run for this seat besides Brown? That's what makes me pessimistic about this seat. Our bench there is threadbare after a decade of losses and 15 years of aggressive gerrymanders.
I don't have anyone in mind but maybe someone closer can chime in. Maybe one of the mayors? I know Amy Action has been mentioned as a gubernatorial candidate. Maybe she can be persuaded to run for the senate if Tim Ryan and Brown pass. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Acton
My list would be NC, ME, TX, AK, IA then Ohio/Florida (if Sherrod doesn't run which looks likely).
Let's not forget that Susan's margin of victory was reduced by half in 2020. I believe that same force which took away Tester and Sherrod is going take her away too. Alaska is quite libertarian, socially moderate and they hate national politics and polarization. They have a unified legislative caucus. A right candidate, a gun loving moderate Democrat similar to Peltola could win its ranked choice election. Alaska also has a very small single media market.
11. Paxton obstructed justice by delaying his trial for federal securities fraud after being indicted in 2015, preventing voters from gaining knowledge regarding Paxton.
11th article of 2023 impeachment which passed the house but not the senate, itself says this, you're also assuming that voters knew all of his background before the high profile impeachment after several other allegations were made, fraud and crimes were committed after those in the indictment, that too in an Attorney general election.
Remains to be seen if Texas' 2024 vote was an aberration or the new normal. Aberrations are not uncommon, especially in places that are going through slow and steady realignments. However, new normals are also not uncommon.
My hope is that the particulars of the 2024 election are what resulted in Texas' regression in its 2024 vote, but it is currently unknowable without more elections to provide a trend.
Texas shifted left every year since Bush ran. 2024 might easily be an aberration. It was the second closest loss in 2018 and 2020 after Florida. We've had two polls by now showing Democrats leading in 2026 Texas and two polls showing Trump underwater there. His approval has fallen the fastest in Texas and Florida mirroring the national trend of his approval falling among Latinos, Asians, Independents and young voters. You're very pessimistic. We have a deep bench and a lot of talent in Texas unlike Florida.
Also, the 2022 gubernatorial race in Texas was also closer than that in 2018.
True regarding the 2022 gubernatorial race. I’d say that the difference in election results have more to do with slowly but purely changing demographics in TX.
It's more likely due to immigrants being naturalized and Texas having higher birth rates rather than domestic immigration. Also with its growing cities and surburbs shifting blue.
Texas receives more Republicans than Democrats and a 2018 CNN exit found that migrants backed Cruz by 10 points while native born Texans backed Beto. Another study about the California exodus found that it exports more Republican leaners to other states.
Poll: ALLRED LEADING PAXTON
A recent poll by the conservative Senate Leadership Fund super PAC showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 15 points in a GOP primary — but narrowly losing a hypothetical general election against Allred, according to two people familiar with the survey.
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/12/trump-endorse-senate-maga
Oh TX, don't threaten me with a good time next year.
Seems like a cheorographed "leak" by SLF to get Cornyn some help. Not saying Paxton wouldn't be vulnerable, but after last November I remain highly skeptical about anything approaching Blexas.
Blexas? Is that code for Texas turned Blue?
Blexas, Blaska, Bluhio. It's election slang on Reddit and Xitter.
I feel like it's target #5 after NC, ME, IA, AK. Paxton's numerous problems didn't matter in any of his AG elections.
Maybe #6 if we get someone decent to run in Ohio. I forget Vance's seat is up as a special election.
Do we have anyone who could make a credible run for this seat besides Brown? That's what makes me pessimistic about this seat. Our bench there is threadbare after a decade of losses and 15 years of aggressive gerrymanders.
I don't have anyone in mind but maybe someone closer can chime in. Maybe one of the mayors? I know Amy Action has been mentioned as a gubernatorial candidate. Maybe she can be persuaded to run for the senate if Tim Ryan and Brown pass. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Acton
Not really, Paxton was impeached after 2022.
My list would be NC, ME, TX, AK, IA then Ohio/Florida (if Sherrod doesn't run which looks likely).
Let's not forget that Susan's margin of victory was reduced by half in 2020. I believe that same force which took away Tester and Sherrod is going take her away too. Alaska is quite libertarian, socially moderate and they hate national politics and polarization. They have a unified legislative caucus. A right candidate, a gun loving moderate Democrat similar to Peltola could win its ranked choice election. Alaska also has a very small single media market.
Going to push back on the Paxton was fine prior to 2023 point. He was indicted in 2015 and reelected in 18 and 22.
https://ballotpedia.org/Securities_fraud_charges_against_Texas_Attorney_General_Ken_Paxton,_2015
11. Paxton obstructed justice by delaying his trial for federal securities fraud after being indicted in 2015, preventing voters from gaining knowledge regarding Paxton.
11th article of 2023 impeachment which passed the house but not the senate, itself says this, you're also assuming that voters knew all of his background before the high profile impeachment after several other allegations were made, fraud and crimes were committed after those in the indictment, that too in an Attorney general election.
How does Alaska have a single media market? There are no separate markets for Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, etc.?
He almost lost in 2018 and there was no real push to beat him in 2022. Also his scandals blew up in 2023 for the most part.
Remains to be seen if Texas' 2024 vote was an aberration or the new normal. Aberrations are not uncommon, especially in places that are going through slow and steady realignments. However, new normals are also not uncommon.
My hope is that the particulars of the 2024 election are what resulted in Texas' regression in its 2024 vote, but it is currently unknowable without more elections to provide a trend.
Texas shifted left every year since Bush ran. 2024 might easily be an aberration. It was the second closest loss in 2018 and 2020 after Florida. We've had two polls by now showing Democrats leading in 2026 Texas and two polls showing Trump underwater there. His approval has fallen the fastest in Texas and Florida mirroring the national trend of his approval falling among Latinos, Asians, Independents and young voters. You're very pessimistic. We have a deep bench and a lot of talent in Texas unlike Florida.
Also, the 2022 gubernatorial race in Texas was also closer than that in 2018.
https://www.270towin.com/states/texas
True regarding the 2022 gubernatorial race. I’d say that the difference in election results have more to do with slowly but purely changing demographics in TX.
There are lots of cities and suburbs in TX.
It's more likely due to immigrants being naturalized and Texas having higher birth rates rather than domestic immigration. Also with its growing cities and surburbs shifting blue.
Texas receives more Republicans than Democrats and a 2018 CNN exit found that migrants backed Cruz by 10 points while native born Texans backed Beto. Another study about the California exodus found that it exports more Republican leaners to other states.
Those are surprising discoveries.
Another piece of art.
https://sos.idaho.gov/dashboards/moving-voters/
I would assume Hispanic residents represent the majority or sizable portion of the poll participants in the exit poll you’re referring to.
Once again, Democrats cannot take the Hispanic vote for granted and assume anything.
That's cute but it won't hold up
Yeah, I’m not holding my breath, not taking this as a prediction. But with Allred I do believe we have a chance, albeit a small one.