We’ve gotta try though, other than Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia we don’t have any significantly better offensive targets for gubernatorial races in 2026.
I wouldn't be too optimistic about NH. Unless Ayotte does something to make herself unpopular she'll likely cruise to reelection. NH does not like ousting incumbent governors, even in wave years.
In modern history only one governor of NH has lost reelection to their 2nd term, Craig Benson in 2004. He was super unpopular and still nearly held on, only losing by two points.
It's not impossible but I'd rank NH as a much harder hill to climb than those other states.
On a similar, ish, note we could have Vermont as a pickup opportunity if Scott opts to retire.
The new Vermont LG (John Rodgers) strikes me as someone who could give us a run for our money when/if Scott retires. Vermont seems loath to fully abandon its GOP heritage...
Vermont in a lot of ways doesn't really fit in with modern partisan demarcation points.
It's a supremely rural state; Burlington has all of 44k people in it, as the largest municipality. It's also a distinctly different style of rural than what most people think of for rural elsewhere in the US. Uniform low density rather than stark isolation. Less CSA cosplay. Higher education and income levels, but still a decent number of farms and outdoors types. Old school Yankee Rural, which is more or less gone elsewhere.
I never got the sense that Vermont likes democrats per se, rather than they really really dislike the national republican party. Like some other states there's a desire to claim political independence in the VT electorate, so when a republican shows up that can make the right sounds on being distinct from the national party that VT voters are far more willing to give them a chance.
I think if the US had a different election system that made third parties viable that Vermont would be one of the first places to make a distinct and local party (probably right after Alaska).
I have noticed this in NH gubernatorial races. It’s really hard unseating incumbent GOP Governors like John Sununu and Kelly Ayotte as they are not viewed as batshit crazy.
On the other hand, Maggie Hassan unseated Ayotte when she was running for her 2nd term as Senator.
That was a big part of it. National republicans are less popular in NH. They can still win but the national party is more radical than the median NH voter would like, at least in most elections. The evangelical stuff doesn't fit in well here either.
Another factor with Ayotte is she managed to piss off everyone with her stance on Trump. She backed him thoroughly but also said she couldn't vote for him due to the Hollywood Access video. It's the perfectly wrong middle ground that didn't appease the people that hated him while also making the people that liked him think of her as a traitor.
Her disavowal was too weak and inconsistent. If a candidate does that kind of thing they need to lean all the way into it to avoid that worst-case outcome. Either fully commit or don't bother.
True, but he's already been elected (I think twice?) as the state auditor. He's familiar with the game, and the people are familiar with him. He's probably got the best shot of anyone.
It needs to be more pointed at the outgoing MAGA governor and her compliant GOP majority for running roughshod over women's rights and defunding public schools.
Yes I agree but Trump's approval has fallen fast there and is negative now which might be an advantage for him. The current governor also has a net negative approval in another poll.
Cook Political Report: “Democratic Auditor Rob Sand threw his hat in the ring for Iowa governor on Monday, elevating a Republican-held seat to a new competitive tier. Sand, 42, is the lone Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa and easily the strongest contender his party could have recruited for the open seat.”
“His candidacy warrants a rare ‘double jump’ rating change, shifting this contest from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.”
I don’t think it’ll be a thing, but mere speculation.
When you have an incumbent Senator who supports DOGE and actual wasteful spending and a moderate Dem who’s the state auditor running for governor… it’s cognitive dissonance at its prime. I certainly wouldn’t vote a Sand-Ernst ticket if I were an Iowan voter. I’d vote for an all blue ticket.
https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/iowa-auditor-rob-sand-announces-2026-gubernatorial-run-governor-kim-reynolds-republicans-democrats
Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand is running for governor of his state.
He's got a steep hill to climb unless a lot of GOP Iowans cross the aisle for him or sit out the 2026 midterms.
We’ve gotta try though, other than Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia we don’t have any significantly better offensive targets for gubernatorial races in 2026.
I wouldn't be too optimistic about NH. Unless Ayotte does something to make herself unpopular she'll likely cruise to reelection. NH does not like ousting incumbent governors, even in wave years.
In modern history only one governor of NH has lost reelection to their 2nd term, Craig Benson in 2004. He was super unpopular and still nearly held on, only losing by two points.
It's not impossible but I'd rank NH as a much harder hill to climb than those other states.
On a similar, ish, note we could have Vermont as a pickup opportunity if Scott opts to retire.
The new Vermont LG (John Rodgers) strikes me as someone who could give us a run for our money when/if Scott retires. Vermont seems loath to fully abandon its GOP heritage...
Vermont in a lot of ways doesn't really fit in with modern partisan demarcation points.
It's a supremely rural state; Burlington has all of 44k people in it, as the largest municipality. It's also a distinctly different style of rural than what most people think of for rural elsewhere in the US. Uniform low density rather than stark isolation. Less CSA cosplay. Higher education and income levels, but still a decent number of farms and outdoors types. Old school Yankee Rural, which is more or less gone elsewhere.
I never got the sense that Vermont likes democrats per se, rather than they really really dislike the national republican party. Like some other states there's a desire to claim political independence in the VT electorate, so when a republican shows up that can make the right sounds on being distinct from the national party that VT voters are far more willing to give them a chance.
I think if the US had a different election system that made third parties viable that Vermont would be one of the first places to make a distinct and local party (probably right after Alaska).
I have noticed this in NH gubernatorial races. It’s really hard unseating incumbent GOP Governors like John Sununu and Kelly Ayotte as they are not viewed as batshit crazy.
On the other hand, Maggie Hassan unseated Ayotte when she was running for her 2nd term as Senator.
IMO it was a combination of Hassan's personal popularity and tying Ayotte to national Republicans that allowed the former to pull off a (narrow) win.
That was a big part of it. National republicans are less popular in NH. They can still win but the national party is more radical than the median NH voter would like, at least in most elections. The evangelical stuff doesn't fit in well here either.
Another factor with Ayotte is she managed to piss off everyone with her stance on Trump. She backed him thoroughly but also said she couldn't vote for him due to the Hollywood Access video. It's the perfectly wrong middle ground that didn't appease the people that hated him while also making the people that liked him think of her as a traitor.
Her disavowal was too weak and inconsistent. If a candidate does that kind of thing they need to lean all the way into it to avoid that worst-case outcome. Either fully commit or don't bother.
True, but he's already been elected (I think twice?) as the state auditor. He's familiar with the game, and the people are familiar with him. He's probably got the best shot of anyone.
He does have a potentially powerful message.
It needs to be more pointed at the outgoing MAGA governor and her compliant GOP majority for running roughshod over women's rights and defunding public schools.
Yes I agree but Trump's approval has fallen fast there and is negative now which might be an advantage for him. The current governor also has a net negative approval in another poll.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true
Seems within reach for a gubernatorial race. It'll be vastly harder for Dems to win a federal race in Iowa moving forward.
He's the best possible candidate, excited hoping he pulls it off after 16 long years of Terry & Kim it's way past time for change!! 💙🇺🇲
Iowa Governor’s Race Is Suddenly Competitive
Cook Political Report: “Democratic Auditor Rob Sand threw his hat in the ring for Iowa governor on Monday, elevating a Republican-held seat to a new competitive tier. Sand, 42, is the lone Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa and easily the strongest contender his party could have recruited for the open seat.”
“His candidacy warrants a rare ‘double jump’ rating change, shifting this contest from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.”
https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/12/iowa-governors-race-is-suddenly-competitive/
Will there be a lot of ticket splitting for Sand-Ernst or will Sand pull the Democratic Senate candidate over the line with him too?
When does a gubernatorial candidate have coattails for a senatorial candidate?
I don’t think it’ll be a thing, but mere speculation.
When you have an incumbent Senator who supports DOGE and actual wasteful spending and a moderate Dem who’s the state auditor running for governor… it’s cognitive dissonance at its prime. I certainly wouldn’t vote a Sand-Ernst ticket if I were an Iowan voter. I’d vote for an all blue ticket.
Right, but you're not the median Iowa voter.