Large but not as large as expected update. GOP has gotten the request advantage down to 500k with two days left. The ballot advantage increases for Dems continue increase but slowly. A little over 2/3 of all requested ballots have been received with only two counties below 50%: Huntingdon (only 1,149 requests) & Luzerne (29k of 48.3k outstanding, D+4k). PA is now at 53.63% of 2020 mail-in ballots & at 20.29% of the total 2020 turnout.
Bad because if you got a mail ballot in order to vote in person instead in PA you need to turn in the blank vote with the envelope. A potentially confusing obstacle.
I'm not panicking. Philadelphia is always a pain in the a$$ when it comes to reporting mail ballots. They're at 62.48% & have been consistent in the # processed daily so there could be a backlog of ballots.
As far as everything else, it gets too complicated for an outlet like this comment section. Most (42 of 68) counties are over 70% returned but none are the Big Six. Allegheny will get there tomorrow with Bucks & Montgomery getting there Wednesday. There is still A LOT of room in the six big counties for the firewall to grow.
Monday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
109,609 new requests, R+4,401. Overall request advantage now down to D+500,199
118,165 ballot returns, D+8,901. Overall ballot advantage now D+381,095. 9k short of the (once) popular firewall, 59k below my firewall
Total Requests:
D - 1,164,662 (55.59%)
R - 664,463 (31.72%)
O - 265,813 (12.29%)
Total - 2,094,938
Total Returns:
D - 819,112 (70.33% return rate)
R - 438,017 (65.92%)
O - 145,778 (54.84%)
Total - 1,402,907
Large but not as large as expected update. GOP has gotten the request advantage down to 500k with two days left. The ballot advantage increases for Dems continue increase but slowly. A little over 2/3 of all requested ballots have been received with only two counties below 50%: Huntingdon (only 1,149 requests) & Luzerne (29k of 48.3k outstanding, D+4k). PA is now at 53.63% of 2020 mail-in ballots & at 20.29% of the total 2020 turnout.
Outstanding Ballots:
D - 345,550 (49.93%)
R - 226,446 (32.72%)
O - 120,035 (17.35%)
Total - 692,031
9% of all outstanding ballots are held by Philadelphia Democrats
Is that good or bad?
Bad because if you got a mail ballot in order to vote in person instead in PA you need to turn in the blank vote with the envelope. A potentially confusing obstacle.
If the rumored backlog in Philadelphia exists, it's fine. If not, not good.
Any thoughts on county breakdown, varying return rates? Turnout by Mail Ballot in Philly and other heavily-Blue counties?
Democrats have returned
more ballots in heavily red Carbon and Lancaster counties
I'm not panicking. Philadelphia is always a pain in the a$$ when it comes to reporting mail ballots. They're at 62.48% & have been consistent in the # processed daily so there could be a backlog of ballots.
As far as everything else, it gets too complicated for an outlet like this comment section. Most (42 of 68) counties are over 70% returned but none are the Big Six. Allegheny will get there tomorrow with Bucks & Montgomery getting there Wednesday. There is still A LOT of room in the six big counties for the firewall to grow.
Many thanks!