If polling averages were weighted by sample size, this poll alone would be enough to compensate for the flood of polls recently released from bad-faith R-leaning pollsters.
Mathematically we should not give that much extra weight to a 70k sample vs a 1k sample. But I wonder if having a sample size this large might help to counterbalance some of the fundamental issues polling faces today. Or, if instead it just magnifies those problems over the larger group.
Skimming the crosstabs I do not see anything truly egregious, but parts of it look decently off from what I'd expect too. The gender gap is small: men are Harris +1, women Harris +8. It has Trump with 22% of the black vote but only 51% of the white vote. Trump wins independents by 3 while losing nationally by 4.
I'll give them credit for doing something different, at the very minimum.
ust released: national estimates from CES pre-election interviews with over 70k american adults
National LVs (Oct. 1 - 25):
Harris: 51%
Trump: 47%
Dynamic crosstabs: https://cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/prez2024pre/
Release: https://sites.tufts.edu/cooperativeelectionstudy/2024/10/28/ces-estimates-on-the-2024-presidential-election/
https://x.com/b_schaffner/status/1850919058775941605
70K!?
If polling averages were weighted by sample size, this poll alone would be enough to compensate for the flood of polls recently released from bad-faith R-leaning pollsters.
Are surveys of that size common?!
Not really. Post-election I've seen. Such as Pew Research.
itтАЩs Yougov that did the survey and they have panels this large.
That's a fascinatingly large polling size.
Mathematically we should not give that much extra weight to a 70k sample vs a 1k sample. But I wonder if having a sample size this large might help to counterbalance some of the fundamental issues polling faces today. Or, if instead it just magnifies those problems over the larger group.
Skimming the crosstabs I do not see anything truly egregious, but parts of it look decently off from what I'd expect too. The gender gap is small: men are Harris +1, women Harris +8. It has Trump with 22% of the black vote but only 51% of the white vote. Trump wins independents by 3 while losing nationally by 4.
I'll give them credit for doing something different, at the very minimum.