My read on Nevada is that Trump is probably up about 1 in the votes already banked *if* indies break 57-43 Dem and partisans break 95-5. Those are the imputed numbers from the 2022 Senate race when Masto outran the party split by 36k votes. That was a big change from 2020 when Biden ran 6k votes behind the party split. The number of indies in NV has absolutely exploded since 2020 as 'indie' is now the default for people who automatically register. Dems probably have some ground to make up, but it really depends on the indie split and/or crossover voting.
About those 95-5 partisan splits I think its very possible, in fact I might even say its likely, that there's still some residual anti-EV bias among Republicans and also that whatever tiny percentage of pro-Harris Republicans exist that they are more likely than the median Republican to vote early.
I don't put a lot of weight on either the partisan split or the indie split in isolation, because there's no way to disentangle them. If you have a more favorable partisan split you can get away with a less favorable indie split, etc.
That said, it wouldn't surprise me if you're right that registered Rs crossing over to vote Harris would be more likely than other Rs to vote early, at least by mail. Rs seemed ok with voting early in person even in 2020.
My read on Nevada is that Trump is probably up about 1 in the votes already banked *if* indies break 57-43 Dem and partisans break 95-5. Those are the imputed numbers from the 2022 Senate race when Masto outran the party split by 36k votes. That was a big change from 2020 when Biden ran 6k votes behind the party split. The number of indies in NV has absolutely exploded since 2020 as 'indie' is now the default for people who automatically register. Dems probably have some ground to make up, but it really depends on the indie split and/or crossover voting.
About those 95-5 partisan splits I think its very possible, in fact I might even say its likely, that there's still some residual anti-EV bias among Republicans and also that whatever tiny percentage of pro-Harris Republicans exist that they are more likely than the median Republican to vote early.
I don't put a lot of weight on either the partisan split or the indie split in isolation, because there's no way to disentangle them. If you have a more favorable partisan split you can get away with a less favorable indie split, etc.
That said, it wouldn't surprise me if you're right that registered Rs crossing over to vote Harris would be more likely than other Rs to vote early, at least by mail. Rs seemed ok with voting early in person even in 2020.