The only time I can say things definitively looked hairy in Nevada was leading up to 2014 when it became clear Dem turnout in Clark was going to be like half of what it was in 2010 (also a very bad election!) In all the elections after, with most statewide races in single digits, I've never had the sense that early vote analysis (even from the vaunted Jon Ralston) could conclusively tell us who was going to end up on the right side of a low to mid single digit win. The early vote stats in Nevada look just as "bad" as they do in Colorado this year and I don't think anyone expects Trump to gain ground in the latter when election results and trends in recent years are horrendous for the CO GOP. Republicans are voting earlier, Democrats are voting later, I just don't know what conclusions can be drawn from that besides "2020 was weird". I say this not with confidence/optimism (Democrats might not show up on election day and we do badly), but also not with pessimism (Dems very well might show up in force and also we get a good split with independents and swing voters). Ask me in 8 days for better analysis! ;)
The only time I can say things definitively looked hairy in Nevada was leading up to 2014 when it became clear Dem turnout in Clark was going to be like half of what it was in 2010 (also a very bad election!) In all the elections after, with most statewide races in single digits, I've never had the sense that early vote analysis (even from the vaunted Jon Ralston) could conclusively tell us who was going to end up on the right side of a low to mid single digit win. The early vote stats in Nevada look just as "bad" as they do in Colorado this year and I don't think anyone expects Trump to gain ground in the latter when election results and trends in recent years are horrendous for the CO GOP. Republicans are voting earlier, Democrats are voting later, I just don't know what conclusions can be drawn from that besides "2020 was weird". I say this not with confidence/optimism (Democrats might not show up on election day and we do badly), but also not with pessimism (Dems very well might show up in force and also we get a good split with independents and swing voters). Ask me in 8 days for better analysis! ;)