I figured there would be a cross-current of a further Democratic-trending managerial class and a shift to Trump with Hispanics in Texas this year. Siena's sample was far redder than everybody else's in Florida and now they're seeing the same in Texas. Makes me wonder if their modeling is more rooted in the 2024 electorate while everybody else's is still lost in 2020.
You also rather conveniently forgot to include another equal possibility: that every other poll is right and NYT/Siena are the only ones wrong in misreading the 2024 election. Either take all of the data and average it or take none of the data and make it your opinion. Latching on only to the polls that fit your opinion and ignoring all the other polls that don’t fit your view is completely biased, just as much as say believing BigVillage Harris+7 polls and ignoring all the others.
That certain is a possibility. I never said it wasn't. Hence my final sentence began with "makes me wonder if their modeling...." as opposed to declaratively assigning any supremacy to the Siena poll.
something to keep in mind - NYT/Siena has had trouble polling Texas and the SW in the past. Not sure how many people remember, but their polls of CA, AZ, NV, and TX were inaccurate and too favorable to the GOP in 2018 when they polled lots of House and Senate races in that region. I wonder if something similar might be happening this year.
Because their AZ polls have produced fairly strong pro-GOP outliers too, not just this TX poll.
I figured there would be a cross-current of a further Democratic-trending managerial class and a shift to Trump with Hispanics in Texas this year. Siena's sample was far redder than everybody else's in Florida and now they're seeing the same in Texas. Makes me wonder if their modeling is more rooted in the 2024 electorate while everybody else's is still lost in 2020.
We don’t as yet know what the 2024 electorate will be though, so if their sample is redder that would be a projection not something rooted in fact.
How can you possibly model the 2024 electorate ahead of time except by chance?
You also rather conveniently forgot to include another equal possibility: that every other poll is right and NYT/Siena are the only ones wrong in misreading the 2024 election. Either take all of the data and average it or take none of the data and make it your opinion. Latching on only to the polls that fit your opinion and ignoring all the other polls that don’t fit your view is completely biased, just as much as say believing BigVillage Harris+7 polls and ignoring all the others.
That certain is a possibility. I never said it wasn't. Hence my final sentence began with "makes me wonder if their modeling...." as opposed to declaratively assigning any supremacy to the Siena poll.
something to keep in mind - NYT/Siena has had trouble polling Texas and the SW in the past. Not sure how many people remember, but their polls of CA, AZ, NV, and TX were inaccurate and too favorable to the GOP in 2018 when they polled lots of House and Senate races in that region. I wonder if something similar might be happening this year.
Because their AZ polls have produced fairly strong pro-GOP outliers too, not just this TX poll.