Hairy is probably on the pessimistic side, but at the same time it doesn’t look great. Ralston made a comment yesterday that the way the numbers look now, Dems need to win Independents by 5 points. Biden won them by 6 points in 2020. It’s also been commented on here that due to change in registration procedures, more younger / new voters will be registered as Independent than in previous years, which implies that winning them by at least 5 is certainly possible.
Essentially, it looks pretty much like what was expected. NV is a toss up.
Hairy is probably on the pessimistic side, but at the same time it doesn’t look great. Ralston made a comment yesterday that the way the numbers look now, Dems need to win Independents by 5 points. Biden won them by 6 points in 2020. It’s also been commented on here that due to change in registration procedures, more younger / new voters will be registered as Independent than in previous years, which implies that winning them by at least 5 is certainly possible.
Essentially, it looks pretty much like what was expected. NV is a toss up.