Of note, Harris holds a lead among those who already cast their votes. Among the half of voters whose decision was made, more than 49% support the Democrat, while 48% back Trump.
If Harris is ahead by 1% amongst those who have already voted, despite an 11% Republican edge in the Early Vote, this is earthquake-level news for Florida!
Please tell me if I am misreading this.
PS. There seem to be some really contradictory numbers in that article and poll between Floridian women’s preferences and the self-reported early vote.
Isn’t this the third or fourth report of polls finding Harris outperforming party breakdowns in the early vote? I’m skeptical as well, but maybe it really is true.
Every single poll I've seen that asked that question has shown Harris running well ahead of the party split among early voters. Marist found that in NC, GA, and AZ and Siena and I think ABC found that in their national samples. I'm extremely skeptical of the margins they're finding (which suggest a blowout on the national level that would not remotely match the spending patterns in either the presidential or lower level races) but it this point I'm also skeptical of the idea that it's pure noise with no signal. My prior is that it's about 80% noise, 20% signal but even that would be enough to tip the election to Harris with room to spare.
Thanks. Those margins aren't plausible but when every single serious poll finds the same result there has to be some explanation for it, even if it's an explanation for why it's all noise.
For Florida I think it used to be that the GOP had an advantage in mail in votes, Dems would get an edge in the in person early vote and then the Rs would erase it on election day. This time around it looks like Dems have a modest advantage in the mail in ballots but the GOP has a large edge in the in person early vote so far.
Florida Early Vote not looking great for Democrats.
– Republican ballot edge: 508,722
– Republicans lead in 60 counties.
– Republicans hold an 10.9% overall turnout lead.
The Democratic ground game and GOTV operations clearly need to up the game. However, there are two potentially very-significant wild cards:
– Almost one million Independent voters
– Unknown female/male voter split
https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/
Of note, Harris holds a lead among those who already cast their votes. Among the half of voters whose decision was made, more than 49% support the Democrat, while 48% back Trump.
If Harris is ahead by 1% amongst those who have already voted, despite an 11% Republican edge in the Early Vote, this is earthquake-level news for Florida!
Please tell me if I am misreading this.
PS. There seem to be some really contradictory numbers in that article and poll between Floridian women’s preferences and the self-reported early vote.
Yeah that figure seems absolutely insane. I’m skeptical, personally, but we’ll see.
Independents.
Isn’t this the third or fourth report of polls finding Harris outperforming party breakdowns in the early vote? I’m skeptical as well, but maybe it really is true.
There’s starting to be multiple polls suggesting that. Here’s hoping that’s correct!
Every single poll I've seen that asked that question has shown Harris running well ahead of the party split among early voters. Marist found that in NC, GA, and AZ and Siena and I think ABC found that in their national samples. I'm extremely skeptical of the margins they're finding (which suggest a blowout on the national level that would not remotely match the spending patterns in either the presidential or lower level races) but it this point I'm also skeptical of the idea that it's pure noise with no signal. My prior is that it's about 80% noise, 20% signal but even that would be enough to tip the election to Harris with room to spare.
I believe it was something like this:
Marist (AZ): H 55-44
Marist (NC): H 55-43
Marist (GA): H 54-45
ABC/IPSOS (National): H 62-33 (8% of sample)
CNN (National): H 61-36 (20% of sample)
NYT/Sienna (National): H 59-40 (9% of sample)
Thanks. Those margins aren't plausible but when every single serious poll finds the same result there has to be some explanation for it, even if it's an explanation for why it's all noise.
Florida has always had high GOP early votes if memory serves.
That is also my recollection, at least pre-2020.
Exactly the opposite. We start to rewrite history now
For Florida I think it used to be that the GOP had an advantage in mail in votes, Dems would get an edge in the in person early vote and then the Rs would erase it on election day. This time around it looks like Dems have a modest advantage in the mail in ballots but the GOP has a large edge in the in person early vote so far.
Of course it wouldn’t look good. Who expects anything out of FL?