(UPDATE, 9:30pm) All in all, over 47.5 million people have already voted. Over 24.2 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while almost 23.4 million people have voted Early In-Person. This morning, North Carolina joined Georgia in exceeding 50% of its 2020 turnout. With its massive voting, Texas is likely to join them within a few days – and Florida is not far behind!
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
Other key states, four included because of vital Senate races:
TX 47.3% 5,365,110
MT 41.3% 252,638
VA 32.2% 1,457,884
OH 27.4% 1,637,003
NE 21.2% 205,324
Other states with strong Early Vote: SD 55.1%, TN 47.3%,
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State. When I update, I’ll change my time-stamp.)
For comparison, Friday's update was 34.3 million votes, and Thursday's was 31.4 million. So the pace of voting is still strong, and maybe even increasing.
DFW suburbs seem to be exceptionally high. If a lot of ticket splitters there (like Warnock won many affluent suburbs in mid to high teens where Abrams lost narrowly), Allred could have an outside chance.
While we're not yet at the point where higher turnout in greater DFW is necessarily a good thing, it's at least not necessarily a bad thing. Harris's margin in Dallas County will be the decisive factor, but she should also carry Collin and Tarrant while breaking even in Denton. Whether or not she can continue the momentum in Rockwall, Ellis, and Kaufman is one of the things I'm most looking forward to seeing, along with an answer as to whether or not she begin a trend in Johnson and Parker, as Biden did in the aforementioned trio four years ago.
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (Updated)
(UPDATE, 9:30pm) All in all, over 47.5 million people have already voted. Over 24.2 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while almost 23.4 million people have voted Early In-Person. This morning, North Carolina joined Georgia in exceeding 50% of its 2020 turnout. With its massive voting, Texas is likely to join them within a few days – and Florida is not far behind!
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
GA 60.7% 3,050,666
NC 50.8% 2,820,002*
FL 46.1% 5,135,201*
NV 45.8% 644,053
AZ 41% 1,400,797
MI 34% 1,896,105
WI 25.9% 858,166
PA 20.3% 1,414,839
Other key states, four included because of vital Senate races:
TX 47.3% 5,365,110
MT 41.3% 252,638
VA 32.2% 1,457,884
OH 27.4% 1,637,003
NE 21.2% 205,324
Other states with strong Early Vote: SD 55.1%, TN 47.3%,
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State. When I update, I’ll change my time-stamp.)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
For comparison, Friday's update was 34.3 million votes, and Thursday's was 31.4 million. So the pace of voting is still strong, and maybe even increasing.
In Texas, too, the pace is very strong.
DFW suburbs seem to be exceptionally high. If a lot of ticket splitters there (like Warnock won many affluent suburbs in mid to high teens where Abrams lost narrowly), Allred could have an outside chance.
While we're not yet at the point where higher turnout in greater DFW is necessarily a good thing, it's at least not necessarily a bad thing. Harris's margin in Dallas County will be the decisive factor, but she should also carry Collin and Tarrant while breaking even in Denton. Whether or not she can continue the momentum in Rockwall, Ellis, and Kaufman is one of the things I'm most looking forward to seeing, along with an answer as to whether or not she begin a trend in Johnson and Parker, as Biden did in the aforementioned trio four years ago.