Morning Digest: Mississippi Republicans want to drag their Supreme Court even further to the right

Conservatives are targeting a moderate justice—and hoping a low-turnout runoff will favor them

Mississippi Supreme Court Justice Jim Kitchens (at right) (Credit: Jim Kitchens for Mississippi Supreme Court)

Leading Off

MS Supreme Court

Republicans want to push Mississippi's already conservative Supreme Court even further to the right by replacing moderate Justice Jim Kitchens with state Sen. Jenifer Branning, a self-described "Christian conservative," in next month's elections.

The nine-member court is divided into three districts, each of which is served by three justices; Kitchens, the only incumbent who faces notable opposition, is seeking a third eight-year term in the 1st District. While Donald Trump easily carried Mississippi as a whole in 2020, this constituency, which includes the state capital of Jackson and other communities in the central part of the state, favored Joe Biden 53-46.

While a Republican like Branning would ordinarily have a tough time prevailing on the same day that Kamala Harris is likely to win the 1st District, Mississippi Today's Bobby Harrison notes she may be able to force the race into overtime. Three other candidates are also competing in this officially nonpartisan contest, and their presence could prevent Kitchens from securing the majority he'd need to win outright.

Should a runoff be necessary, the Magnolia State will host a second round of voting on Nov. 26—two days before Thanksgiving. As Harrison puts it, a state Supreme Court runoff timed just before a major holiday would be "the definition of a low turnout race." 

Meager voter participation, though, could benefit Branning, especially since she has access to considerably more money than the incumbent. Branning outraised Kitchens $670,000 to $290,000 through Sept. 30, and she finished last month with a $320,000 to $100,000 advantage in cash on hand.

The state senator also has the backing of the state GOP, while the Magnolia Tribune writes that the Mississippi Democratic Party hasn't endorsed any judicial candidates this year. Kitchens, though, has received donations from prominent Democrats like former Rep. Mike Espy and Brandon Presley, who lost a close race for governor last year to Republican incumbent Tate Reeves.

Kitchens, who first won elected office in 1971, has played down any ideological leanings on his part. Mississippi College of Law professor Matt Steffey told the Marshall Project's Daja Henry that Kitchens is indeed a "middle-of-the-road centrist," though Harrison writes that "others might contend he is a liberal."

However he might be categorized, Kitchens has often found himself outnumbered by his conservative colleagues. In one notable example, he was on the losing side in 2021 when the high court issued a 6-3 ruling that obliterated the state's ballot initiative process. Kitchens has used other dissents to highlight what he believes are "oversteps in judicial power and scrutinized prosecutorial decisions," as Henry puts it.

Branning, by contrast, is leaving no doubt about where she stands, branding herself as a "constitutional conservative." In 2016, she attracted widespread attention when then-Gov. Phil Bryant signed a bill she wrote allowing businesses and religious groups to deny services to LGBTQ residents. 

Five years later, Branning spoke at a rally in front of the U.S. Supreme Court the day the justices heard a challenge to an anti-abortion Mississippi law in a case that would soon become nationally known, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.

"It is my fervent hope and prayer that this honorable court will render a decision affirming the state's position, which would result in recognizing the protection of the unborn as an American right," she told the crowd. Just half a year later, the decision Branning prayed for brought an end to Roe v. Wade.

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Senate

TX-Sen

The DSCC has spent $13 million on ads to boost Democratic Colin Allred in his race against Ted Cruz, with "several million more" on the way, according to an unnamed committee staffer who spoke with Politico's Ursula Perano. Perano's reporting follows on the heels of a $5 million buy on Allred's behalf by the Senate Majority PAC.

The extent of the DSCC's prior spending was not clear because it hasn't been making traditional independent expenditures that are reported to the FEC within 24 to 48 hours (and are also attributed to the committee by trackers like AdImpact).

Rather, it's supported Allred through hybrid ads, which can be of any size and are normally attributed to campaigns in spending reports. It's also relied on coordinated expenditures (sometimes known as "441a(d)" spending), which are limited in size but can allow the committee to spend millions directly in concert with campaigns.

House

WA-04

Jerrod Sessler, with help from the Washington GOP, is sending out mailers highlighting a Democratic write-in campaign in a deliberate effort to undermine Rep. Dan Newhouse in the all-Republican general election for the state's conservative 4th District.

The mailers, which were first reported by the Washington State Standard's Jerry Cornfield, call attention to Democrat Cherissa Boyd, ostensibly to throw shade. As Cornfield explains, the mailers feature a headline reading, "The Democrat plan to steal our congressional seat" and urges readers to "make a plan to vote Republican."

But the true goal, as Sessler himself admitted, is to elevate Boyd, whose photo appears in the mailer.

"We're blessed that Cherissa Boyd stepped up and decided to run," he told Cornfield. "It helps up by hurting Dan."

Democrats were locked out of the general election after their top vote-getter, Mary Baechler, finished a distant fourth in the August top-two primary. The far-right Sessler took first with 33% while Newhouse, one of just two House Republicans still in office after voting to impeach Donald Trump, wound up in second with 23%.

But Newhouse hopes to win a sixth term by consolidating Democratic votes (Democrats collectively won 23% in the primary) and winning back some Republicans. That's how he prevailed in two Republican vs. Republican general elections earlier in his career, but should Boyd's write-in effort catch fire, that would complicate his plans.

Trump is supporting Sessler in the 4th District, a central Washington seat that Trump carried 57-40 in 2020. But Newhouse, who retains the support of House GOP leaders like Speaker Mike Johnson, has continued to decisively outraise and outspend his challenger. The congressman has also benefited from $1.6 million in outside spending since the primary, while no one has logged any independent expenditures on Sessler's behalf.

Ballot Measures

OH Ballot

Supporters of an amendment to ban partisan gerrymandering in Ohio are outspending their opponents by a wide margin, according to a new report from Signal Cleveland's Andrew Tobias, as new polling shows wide support for the measure.

Backers of Issue 1, which would also require that new maps reflect the state's partisan balance, have deployed about $12 million to promote the proposal, while those seeking to defeat it have spent $4.5 million.

Meanwhile, a new YouGov survey from Bowling Green State University finds Issue 1 leading by about 20 points, though the school split its sample and asked different sets of respondents about the measure in different ways. Both approaches, however, yield almost identical results: A shorter question shows voters in favor 57-34, while a longer version found them backing the plan 56-32.

There's been no other polling on Issue 1 except for a survey last month from BGSU. That poll also found a large majority in support, but that poll did not offer any description of the amendment at all, except to call it "a ballot measure addressing redistricting."

SD Ballot

Opponents of an amendment to restore abortion rights in South Dakota have so far outspent supporters, the reverse of the situation in most states where abortion is on the ballot. However, a late infusion from a group founded by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is helping reproductive rights advocates make up their shortfall, reports South Dakota Searchlight's Makenzie Huber.

Anti-abortion organizers had laid out $1.2 million as of Oct. 16, the last day covered by recently submitted fundraising reports, while backers of Amendment G had spent just $200,000. Those reports, however, were filed before Pritzker's abortion rights nonprofit, Think Big America, contributed $540,000 to the "pro" side, according to supplemental disclosures.

A likely reason for the financial disparity is the decision by major groups involved in other campaigns, including state affiliates of Planned Parenthood and the ACLU, to sit the race out. Unlike abortion measures in other states, which would guarantee access to the procedure until fetal viability, South Dakota's more modest measure would safeguard abortion only through the first trimester.

That narrower approach did not sit well with the ACLU and Planned Parenthood, who complained that they were not consulted on the contents of Amendment G. One ACLU spokesperson objected in part because, as she told Searchlight's Joshua Haiar last year, the proposal was drafted by "women who are not of reproductive age."

A pair of recent polls have shown voter sentiment closely divided. A survey from Emerson for local media found a narrow 48-45 plurality opposed to Amendment G, while a poll from the University of South Dakota conducted by Mason Dixon put the measure up 50-47.

Poll Pile

• MO-Sen: Emerson College for The Hill and Nexstar: Josh Hawley (R-inc): 51, Lucas Kunce (D): 41 (mid-Sept.: 51-40 Hawley)

• MT-Sen: Emerson for The Hill: Tim Sheehy (R): 50, Jon Tester (D-inc): 46 (58-39 Trump) (Aug.: 48-46 Sheehy)

• NJ-Sen: Cygnal (R): Andy Kim (D): 55, Curtis Bashaw (R): 38 (52-40 Harris)

• NV-Sen: OnMessage (R) for Senate Opportunity Fund: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 48, Sam Brown (R): 48 (50-47 Trump)

• OH-Sen: OnMessage (R): Bernie Moreno (R): 49, Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 47 (52-44 Trump)

• VA-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post and George Mason University: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 54, Hung Cao (R): 41 (49-43 Harris) (early Sept.: 53-41 Kaine)

• WI-Sen: OnMessage (R): Eric Hovde (R): 49, Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 48 (48-47 Trump)

• NY-04: Gotham Polling & Analytics: Anthony D’Esposito (R-inc): 46, Laura Gillen (D): 45

• OH-13: co/efficient (R) for Kevin Coughlin: Kevin Coughlin (R): 46, Emilia Sykes (D-inc): 45 (49-48 Trump)

Gotham Polling & Analytics is an affiliate of the lobbying firm Gotham Government Relations.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D) (here and here); Kari Lake (R) - anti-Gallego

• MI-Sen: Great Lakes Conservative Fund - pro-Mike Rogers (R)

• MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• NE-Sen-A: Dan Osborn (I) - anti-Deb Fischer (R-inc)

• NV-Sen: Win It Back - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc) - anti-Bernie Moreno (R); Moreno - anti-Brown; Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Brown

• TX-Sen: Win It Back - anti-Colin Allred (D) (here and here)

• NH-Gov: Joyce Craig (D) - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R) 

• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D) - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D) - anti-Ken Calvert (R-inc)

• CA-49: BOLD PAC - anti-Matt Gunderson (R)

• CO-08: BOLD PAC - anti-Gabe Evans (R)

• FL-13: Win It Back PAC - anti-Whitney Fox (D)

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) - anti-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)

• IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D) (here and here)

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc) - anti-Joe Teirab (R)

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NE-02: Don Bacon (R-inc)

• NY-01: John Avlon (D) - anti-Nick LaLota (R-inc); Avlon

• NY-03: Tom Suozzi (D-inc)

• NY-04: Anthony D'Esposito (R-inc) - anti-Laura Gillen (D)

• TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)

• WA-03: NRCC - anti-Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc)

• WI-03: DemocracyFIRST PAC and Defend The Vote - anti-Derrick Van Orden (R-inc) ($700,000 buy)

• FL Ballot: Yes on 4 Florida - pro-abortion amendment; Vote No On Amendment 4 - anti-abortion amendment

• MO Ballot: Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - pro-abortion amendment