Regardless of how the house falls, unless there's a GOP Tsunami, it will be closely divided, so throwing away swing districts like this is not a good thing.
I'd rather Rebecca Kwoka or Karen Liot Hill run instead.
I really don’t think we have to worry much about holding seats that Harris won in the midterm, we didn’t lose any seats we held in Clinton districts in 2018, and in a much worse environment in 2022 we didn’t lose many seats we held that Biden won. Obviously we still need to work to hold those seats, but we shouldn’t avoid running candidates just because they’re slightly stronger options to hold a district we’d likely win regardless.
There's a possibility that they might get Gerrymandered anyway, now that Sununu's out, though I think NH's two year term for Governor makes that somewhat less likely.
Last time I checked Ayotte was opposed to mid-decade redistricting, so the earliest this could happen would be after the 2030 census (assuming the GOP Trifecta there remains intact).
That might have been me? I mentioned over the weekend thread that I was polled recently and the poll spent an inordinate amount of time on the prospect of a mid-decade redistricting. Enough so that I had to imagine that the chance of it isn't zero. Ayotte took it off the table in November and to my knowledge has said nothing since.
Only one of the two of them can be gerrymandered out. Either NH-01 or NH-02 would be made redder, and the other seat would get proportionally bluer. Silver lining of the state only having two seats: votes taken from A have to go to B.
Historically republicans have wanted Pappas' seat to be red, and Goodlander's seat to be blue.
Ah, sorry I read your first sentence wrong in the prior comment. That makes more sense! My bad.
I'm not sure that they could make a wave-proof seat, but I don't think it's impossible either. A lot of the NH/MA border is full of towns that vote ~60-30 for republicans. Not Manchester or Nashua sized but decently populated. Most of these are currently in NH-02 and could be squeezed into NH-01 at the expense of some blue areas.
Either way they could make it a major headache for us overall, even if we could win it in a wave.
I was able to make a 58% R composite district pretty easily in Dave's Redistricting, without splitting any cities or towns. That's somewhat bluer than it sounds, since it includes Sununu's 65-33 win in the average. I would guess it roughly corresponds to Trump in the 54% range.
That sounds about right, for a low hanging fruit redistricting. Which if they do it is what I'd expect.
I've never used DRA before and don't feel like creating an account and all that. But looking at the map there I think they could make an absolutely hideous but very republican district by having a district that takes up most of the red turf in the center and borders of the state. Depending on the population numbers I think it could be done such that Nashua is the only blue municipality in that district. Keene, Manchester, Concord, and the seacoast could all be in the blue district.
It would have a very tendril look to it and I doubt they would want to go down that path, but I think it'd be doable.
I ended up with Manchester in the red district and a Nashua in the blue one. There just aren't enough people in the red towns in the Southwest to make it worth connecting to them.
Somebody has to hold that Senate seat for us, and Pappas is one of the strongest candidates we have. The two people you mention who no one outside of NH has ever heard of can run for Pappas' seat.
Also we really do want a strong candidate here. Sununu's denials aside I am not convinced he is absolutely not running. If we run a weaker candidate, and yes a state senator and state executive council is a much weaker candidate than a US rep, Sununu is a lot more likely to run. Even in wave years exceptions happen, especially with insanely popular candidates like Sununu. We shouldn't take this seat for granted.
Pappas is about what we could hope for out of NH. Much more moderate than I'd like but I suspect he'd be less likely to make terrible votes than Shaheen or Hassan have been. He'd easily be our strongest candidate and would be a generational change.
There are 4 Executive Council districts, right? That would make each councillor on average half as well known as one of the two U.S. Representatives, but that won't always be the case.
Five districts. They each represent a good chunk of people, but I'd argue voters take much less notice of them than a simple proportionality argument would suggest.
They still are a decent launching pad for higher office. Pappas was on the executive council before he ran for the house. Sununu was there before he ran for governor. Collin van Ostern was before his 2016 run for governor. Probably some other recent-ish examples that I am forgetting. Even if voters don't know them they will have needed better campaign skills, fundraising abilities, and will have more connections than someone in lower office. Decent as they are as launching pads, they're a good bit worse than being a member of congress.
Also right now there's literally only one democrat on the executive council due to it being gerrymandered. Democrats controlled the council 3-2 for part of Sununu's time as governor and he hated them. If I remember right it was due to the council blocking some of his judicial nominations over abortion rights. Republicans didn't want a repeat of that.
Lmao, we are going to be real competitive in Texas and Ohio and you are sweating about New Hampshire. Trump's approval just before Liberation Day was horrible enough.
And to the surprise of nobody paying attention, Chris Pappas is running for the US Senate: https://www.wmur.com/article/chris-pappas-announces-run-for-us-senate-04032025/64370925
I'd rather he and Goodlander run for reelection.
Regardless of how the house falls, unless there's a GOP Tsunami, it will be closely divided, so throwing away swing districts like this is not a good thing.
I'd rather Rebecca Kwoka or Karen Liot Hill run instead.
I really don’t think we have to worry much about holding seats that Harris won in the midterm, we didn’t lose any seats we held in Clinton districts in 2018, and in a much worse environment in 2022 we didn’t lose many seats we held that Biden won. Obviously we still need to work to hold those seats, but we shouldn’t avoid running candidates just because they’re slightly stronger options to hold a district we’d likely win regardless.
There's a possibility that they might get Gerrymandered anyway, now that Sununu's out, though I think NH's two year term for Governor makes that somewhat less likely.
Last time I checked Ayotte was opposed to mid-decade redistricting, so the earliest this could happen would be after the 2030 census (assuming the GOP Trifecta there remains intact).
I read some suggestion that she might flip-flop on that, though I don't remember where now.
I think it's more likely she loses a primary in 2028 than she flip-flops on this particular subject.
That might have been me? I mentioned over the weekend thread that I was polled recently and the poll spent an inordinate amount of time on the prospect of a mid-decade redistricting. Enough so that I had to imagine that the chance of it isn't zero. Ayotte took it off the table in November and to my knowledge has said nothing since.
Only one of the two of them can be gerrymandered out. Either NH-01 or NH-02 would be made redder, and the other seat would get proportionally bluer. Silver lining of the state only having two seats: votes taken from A have to go to B.
Historically republicans have wanted Pappas' seat to be red, and Goodlander's seat to be blue.
My point is that if that happens the concern about open seats would diminish.
Though I am skeptical of the ability of the Republicans to create a wave safe Red seat in NH. There just aren't enough blood red communities there.
Ah, sorry I read your first sentence wrong in the prior comment. That makes more sense! My bad.
I'm not sure that they could make a wave-proof seat, but I don't think it's impossible either. A lot of the NH/MA border is full of towns that vote ~60-30 for republicans. Not Manchester or Nashua sized but decently populated. Most of these are currently in NH-02 and could be squeezed into NH-01 at the expense of some blue areas.
Either way they could make it a major headache for us overall, even if we could win it in a wave.
I was able to make a 58% R composite district pretty easily in Dave's Redistricting, without splitting any cities or towns. That's somewhat bluer than it sounds, since it includes Sununu's 65-33 win in the average. I would guess it roughly corresponds to Trump in the 54% range.
That sounds about right, for a low hanging fruit redistricting. Which if they do it is what I'd expect.
I've never used DRA before and don't feel like creating an account and all that. But looking at the map there I think they could make an absolutely hideous but very republican district by having a district that takes up most of the red turf in the center and borders of the state. Depending on the population numbers I think it could be done such that Nashua is the only blue municipality in that district. Keene, Manchester, Concord, and the seacoast could all be in the blue district.
It would have a very tendril look to it and I doubt they would want to go down that path, but I think it'd be doable.
I ended up with Manchester in the red district and a Nashua in the blue one. There just aren't enough people in the red towns in the Southwest to make it worth connecting to them.
Somebody has to hold that Senate seat for us, and Pappas is one of the strongest candidates we have. The two people you mention who no one outside of NH has ever heard of can run for Pappas' seat.
Also we really do want a strong candidate here. Sununu's denials aside I am not convinced he is absolutely not running. If we run a weaker candidate, and yes a state senator and state executive council is a much weaker candidate than a US rep, Sununu is a lot more likely to run. Even in wave years exceptions happen, especially with insanely popular candidates like Sununu. We shouldn't take this seat for granted.
Pappas is about what we could hope for out of NH. Much more moderate than I'd like but I suspect he'd be less likely to make terrible votes than Shaheen or Hassan have been. He'd easily be our strongest candidate and would be a generational change.
There are 4 Executive Council districts, right? That would make each councillor on average half as well known as one of the two U.S. Representatives, but that won't always be the case.
Five districts. They each represent a good chunk of people, but I'd argue voters take much less notice of them than a simple proportionality argument would suggest.
They still are a decent launching pad for higher office. Pappas was on the executive council before he ran for the house. Sununu was there before he ran for governor. Collin van Ostern was before his 2016 run for governor. Probably some other recent-ish examples that I am forgetting. Even if voters don't know them they will have needed better campaign skills, fundraising abilities, and will have more connections than someone in lower office. Decent as they are as launching pads, they're a good bit worse than being a member of congress.
Also right now there's literally only one democrat on the executive council due to it being gerrymandered. Democrats controlled the council 3-2 for part of Sununu's time as governor and he hated them. If I remember right it was due to the council blocking some of his judicial nominations over abortion rights. Republicans didn't want a repeat of that.
Lmao, we are going to be real competitive in Texas and Ohio and you are sweating about New Hampshire. Trump's approval just before Liberation Day was horrible enough.
His campaign texted me. Somehow, every politician seems to text me, even though my response is always to reply "stop."