CNN, national, has Harris +1. In a sample that they've weighted by party ID... to R+2 (32 D, 34 R, 32 I)... because that was their reading on party ID in their own June poll. I'm not making this up:
"The sample was also weighted for party identification in detail (leaners broken out)
and collapsed crossed by age and race. The benchmarks fo…
CNN, national, has Harris +1. In a sample that they've weighted by party ID... to R+2 (32 D, 34 R, 32 I)... because that was their reading on party ID in their own June poll. I'm not making this up:
"The sample was also weighted for party identification in detail (leaners broken out)
and collapsed crossed by age and race. The benchmarks for party identification crosses were taken from CNN's national poll conducted by SSRS via web and phone from June 3-23,2024"
CNN, national, has Harris +1. In a sample that they've weighted by party ID... to R+2 (32 D, 34 R, 32 I)... because that was their reading on party ID in their own June poll. I'm not making this up:
"The sample was also weighted for party identification in detail (leaners broken out)
and collapsed crossed by age and race. The benchmarks for party identification crosses were taken from CNN's national poll conducted by SSRS via web and phone from June 3-23,2024"
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25172742/cnn-poll-harris-and-trump-locked-in-exceedingly-close-presidential-race.pdf
So we're about one point off a 2014 electorate and Harris still leads. She's +90 among Dems, +4 among Indies, and -87 among Republicans.
(This is also a 3-point improvement for Harris from the last CNN poll in late July.)
4 actually. Was 49-46 Trump.
True, but one of those 4 points is the RV-LV adjustment in this poll. It's a 3-point shift among RVs.
The fact that even with that she's ahead in the poll is (knock on wood) a good sign.
Agreed. They had Trump by 4-6 points against Biden earlier this year (January and April), which was maybe 3-4 points to the right of the averages.
CNN/SSRS (09.19-09.22.2024):
RV:
🟦Harris: 47%
🟥Trump: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
LV:
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1838620245419815407
Doesn't R+2 track with recent national affiliation? With so many Democrats switching to independents in recent years?