Quibbling modestly with your numbers, I wouldn't say 2020 had "good results" with Democrats losing 15 House seats. Certainly compared to the expectations going into election night 2020--where we were confident that Dems would be positioned to dominate redistricting after our high-single-digit national landslide--I'd say it fell far short…
Quibbling modestly with your numbers, I wouldn't say 2020 had "good results" with Democrats losing 15 House seats. Certainly compared to the expectations going into election night 2020--where we were confident that Dems would be positioned to dominate redistricting after our high-single-digit national landslide--I'd say it fell far short of "good results".
The strategy has failed in two ways. First, we continually overestimate voters' judgment on rejecting a monster if he's pointed out to them. Over and over and over, we convince ourselves that people are decent enough to first recognize and then censure one of the worst human beings to ever aspire to the Presidency.....or that maybe they haven't recognized it so far but they will starting....now! Counting on this to happen for the sixth consecutive time sets us up for the sixth consecutive disappointment.
And with Trump and Musk taking a wrecking ball to civilization in real time as we have this debate, the Democrats track record of winning some races that never mattered in the Trump era is completely irrelevant. Sure, Democrats had a good generic ballot in 2018, but since it wasn't enough to stop Trump from expanding the Supreme Court supermajority, it was a net loss that led us to the armageddon we're living through today. And sure, backlash to the Dobbs ruling helped Democrats win some races they expected to lose in the 2022 midterms, but since they couldn't translate that momentum into a win in the cycle that counted two years later, 2022 was nothing more than a short-term dopamine hit on the road to perdition.
With that in mind, I stand by my position. Counting on the electorate to punish Trump in a meaningful way for the sixth consecutive cycle will almost certainly be too little too late just as it was in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. Democrats haven't made this sale yet and I have no reason to believe that they'll be any better at it next time.
Quibbling modestly with your numbers, I wouldn't say 2020 had "good results" with Democrats losing 15 House seats. Certainly compared to the expectations going into election night 2020--where we were confident that Dems would be positioned to dominate redistricting after our high-single-digit national landslide--I'd say it fell far short of "good results".
The strategy has failed in two ways. First, we continually overestimate voters' judgment on rejecting a monster if he's pointed out to them. Over and over and over, we convince ourselves that people are decent enough to first recognize and then censure one of the worst human beings to ever aspire to the Presidency.....or that maybe they haven't recognized it so far but they will starting....now! Counting on this to happen for the sixth consecutive time sets us up for the sixth consecutive disappointment.
And with Trump and Musk taking a wrecking ball to civilization in real time as we have this debate, the Democrats track record of winning some races that never mattered in the Trump era is completely irrelevant. Sure, Democrats had a good generic ballot in 2018, but since it wasn't enough to stop Trump from expanding the Supreme Court supermajority, it was a net loss that led us to the armageddon we're living through today. And sure, backlash to the Dobbs ruling helped Democrats win some races they expected to lose in the 2022 midterms, but since they couldn't translate that momentum into a win in the cycle that counted two years later, 2022 was nothing more than a short-term dopamine hit on the road to perdition.
With that in mind, I stand by my position. Counting on the electorate to punish Trump in a meaningful way for the sixth consecutive cycle will almost certainly be too little too late just as it was in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. Democrats haven't made this sale yet and I have no reason to believe that they'll be any better at it next time.