The timing of these two retirements is striking. I am of two minds about Thom Tillis’ and Don Bacon’s announcements. On the one hand this increases Democrats’ chances of flipping the House, and even positions us for a longshot at retaking control of the Senate as well. However, these retirements also underscore the alarming degree to which Donald J. Trump wholly and completely owns the MAGA-Republican Party – a party that now has neither room nor tolerance for even the mildest form of dissent.
The Republican party is gone now and with or without Trump, it's a threat to democracy, the economy and fundamental American rights and values. It's all on the Democratic party now. One half of America will gleefully burn the country down out of the perceived wrongs that we've done to them, spite, hatred and for the vindicative feeling of schadenfreude rather than working to make our democracy work for everyone. Half of us will sleepwalk to fascism if Democrats don't win.
It's doesn't make any difference if Paxton wins or Cornyn wins, it only makes a difference if a Democrat wins. Both of them have 100% pro Trump voting records, there is only a difference in how openly they practice their cruelty and bigotry. The cruelty is the point and they want to hurt the right people.
Gone? What do you mean by gone? In the last 30 years it has controlled the White House and congress at the same time 10 years while the Democrats have controlled it 4. It isn’t going anywhere.
The state is getting bluer and bluer with each cycle. It probably would flip much earlier a la Virginia if it wasn't gerrymandered to hell and back starting with the 2010 census and NC GOP capturing control of the state legislature at the same time.
The top three states that are seeing people move to NC have been Virginia, Florida and South Carolina in that order, not exactly deep blue states. (New York and California make it #4 and #5.) People are moving to North Carolina because of the tech and science hubs, better weather, lower cost of living and friendly business environment.
I do think if SCONC flips back to Dem control, get fairer state legislative lines drawn and Dems score a state trifecta, there's going to be a LOT of progressive laws pushed through like Virginia and Minnesota Democrats did. And hopefully the pay-to-play back dealing by GOP lobbyists gets stopped and some long-deserved convictions get handed out.
All that being said, we shouldn't expect the first statewide Democratic winners at the federal level in NC to be Vermont style "progressives." North Carolina remains a strongly pro business state and that's probably not changing anytime soon.
2022 was a R-favorable midterm. The reason he won in 2022 (along with Republicans flipping control of the SCONC) was crappy state D party leadership. Had Anderson Clayton taken control in 2022, she would've devoted plenty of party resources to help Cheri Beasley out (and would've ditched the strategists telling her to play up her bipartisan appeal). And holding control of SCONC would've been a top priority for her.
Bobbie Richardson was a TERRIBLE state party leader. Thanks to Anderson Clayton, we're winning more statewide races.
It’ll probably be competitive no matter what happens this year. But if we flip the other seat that might be an incentive for another of the NC Dems’ star players to run.
Jim Hunt was dragged down in 1984 in large part by presidential coattails. The WH race in the state in 2028 will probably be competitive and might even help the Dem if it gets to a 2008 type “turn the page” environment.
Either of them losing in a bitter primary would be a loss for us in terms of talent as well as money. The Lt. Gov is a powerful position in Texas and Dan Patrick is no Greg Abbott, he can run for that too.
He should be on the ticket running for some position. He could change the electorate. Talarico won a couple of competitive state elections before his seat was gerrymandered so it's not like he is too "woke".
I am so happy that Tillis is sayonara after this year. I was really looking forward to voting him out, but either way, he's out come January 2027. Now to fill his seat with a Democrat.
I noticed that Roy Cooper is scheduled to be at the NC Dems Unity dinner on July 26th with SCONC Justice Anita Earls and IL governor Pritzker. That would probably be the time he announces the bid (or says no).
I'm sure they tried which is why he's just packing his bags and saying 'adios.' Seems like the White House and hardliners are just decided they'd railroad what they wanted and the moderates would cave, which is a pretty good bet.
It's a bet with tons of precedent. So-called moderate republicans folding under pressure from the further right wing of the party is an old story.
Their senate majority is also just barely big enough to make this easier on them. If Casey had held on last year it would have been a much tougher balancing act for Thune.
Way downballot - The election for District 8 of the city council in Pasadena, Texas, just outside Houston, ended with a 272-272 tie between incumbent Bianca Valerio and Bruce Leamon, who previously served on the council. The winner will be determined today by the flip of a coin.
Roy Cooper will about 70 years old by the time he get elected at a time when the party is hungry for young leaders, i think democrat's should take a risk with nominating Nickel he ran a good campaign in 2022 in will probably be a better incumbent 2032 when he will run for reelection when he will be 56 compared to cooper which will be 76 and may retire.
It's Nickel. Whomever is the GOP nominee will paint Nickel as a socialist carpetbagger who doesn't know what North Carolinians want. Way easier to paint him.
But if Cooper is the nominee, good luck trying to get anything to stick to him. He's won several tough statewide races and some squishy Rs will probably vote for him again.
To be fair, his margins of victory have gotten smaller since the 2000s due to increased polarization. With that being said, Cooper is, by far, the best candidate we can run. With Tillis retiring, Cooper entering the race would instantly make this race Lean D.
I will never say anything is guaranteed in politics, but Cooper winning NC-Sen if he runs regardless of his GOP opponent is pretty close to it. He wouldn’t win by much because of the intense polarization of this time period in general (and specifically the state of North Carolina), but he’s won not once, but twice with Trump winning the state on the same ballot. I’d even say it would be Lean D with him running there, he’s that strong of a candidate (not by margin, but win probability).
He can have a term or two holding the seat for us in a currently tough state to win federally as a career capstone, then he can move on to the private life. 6-12 years is an eternity in politics and population growth, so NC could theoretically move the state light blue by then at which point a Democrat can hypothetically replace him easier then now (though given 2024 results I’m not predicting anything about trends from now until then, unexpected things happen and coalitions shift from election to election).
I’d rather have the strongest candidate run in a very finicky and split ticket state than a 1 term congressman.
No one D or R is "pretty close to guaranteed to win" a Senate race in NC. The state is just too competitive. You could maybe talk me into Tilt D rating in an open seat race if Cooper is the nominee but, really it's a toss up. I do agree with you that having him, as our strongest candidate, win and hold the seat for a term is the path here.
The centrist Democratic consultant class may have instructed Dem pols to not even speak a word about it but the BBB effectively turns America into an ICE-led police state by turbocharging it with an additional 170 billion dollars of funding with additional powers, up from the current 35-40 billion dollar budget.
Breaking up the rogue agency and subsuming it under other departments or replacing it with a more accountable alternative is going to be the compromise position in 4 years. There are going to be many protests when the real "mass deportations" begin. There needs to be a Project 2029 guide to mass fire the white nats and other kinds of ultra-nativists in the agency and clean it up.
We also need a plan for 2027, assuming we gain the house and/or senate next year. There's a lot of room to end or fix the worst abuses with threats of government shutdown. Not going to hold my breath on Schumer being any help there. Wouldn't be surprised if he made things worse for us. But we should expect Jeffries to be at least willing to get us something out of that scenario. And the party should be planning accordingly to make the most of that.
I'm worried that "Abolish ICE" will fail at the ballot box through media coverage and the fact that as a slogan it's too reminiscent of "Defund the police." We need to be careful and find phrasing that enables us to take advantage of the backlash. I'm not going to pretend I'm good enough with words to find that better phrasing but I'm sure something exists.
Problem is with the "Abolish ICE" agenda, it would be extremely hard to implement unless you have the Democratic Party occupying Congress and the White House. Once this happens, then it's easier to have this discussion.
Democrats would also need to have a plan to override Trump's veto. I believe a 2/3 vote is needed in this case but that would depend on how much of Congress the Democratic Party has in the majority should it win both chambers.
For getting some things out of holding at least one chamber of congress there's no real need to worry about overriding veto. Force a government shutdown over things that are media friendly and we'll win eventually. Shutdowns are a test over who worries about suffering more damage from insisting on what they want.
That limits the scope of what we can be asking for (terminating ICE is outside of that scope), otherwise it'll make us look bad to the electorate and we'll lose that fight. Which is why the party should start planning so the groundwork can be placed down for whatever it is that we will ask for.
If we really want to be smart we'd plan something that can be used as a springboard for our eventual 2028 candidate for president. Ideally also something that can be used by congressional challengers and people all the way down the ballot.
Project 2029 for Democrats to start when occupying the White House?
Clean up the whole Department of Homeland Security. In fact, I don't see why it's functions can't be transferred over to the Department of Defense and Department of Defense. Homeland security is something DoD can manage and anything immigration and visa related can be managed by DoS.
DHS is a $100+ billion a year mess, especially with ICE being overseen by DHS.
I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment and policy, but please, let’s not shoot ourselves in the face repeatedly again with slogans we love that alienate the middle which Republicans can weaponize effectively against us. Defund the police was a colossal disaster for the party and cost us a ton of winnable seats (Ron Johnson Wisconsin Senate anyone?).
Abolish ICE is exactly the same thing and will turn out exactly the same way. Let’s be smart about this: talk about reforming ICE, like we should have done with the police. Reforming the bad within an agency is much more politically acceptable than getting rid of an essential service to keep people safe. And yes, I’m well aware of the differences between ICE and police, but the average voter doesn’t.
I can see it in ads already “First, Democrats wanted to get rid of cops, now Democrats want to get rid of border patrol agents”. Copy/paste into every GOP campaign and watch as we lose badly in races we should be winning easily.
There's no need for any sort of immigration enforcement whatsoever-candidates in our party who don't run on straight up open borders should be punted to the curb.
Uh, no. Regardless of their merit, there are laws and regulations regarding immigration that people (including many immigrants themselves) expect to be followed and enforced.
And while Trump's excesses and his and others' bigotry on the subject may be creating a window for Democrats on the issue, urging full open borders with no penalties for violating the laws (and "punting to the curb" any Dems who disagree) is a sure way to slam that window shut.
And I'm straight up saying that any law restricting immigration is inherently racist and therefore must be wholeheartedly opposed by any competent Democrat.
Whether you would support it or not has nothing to do with whether it's racist. I, too, would want to take all comers except for criminals, insane people and extremists, but your claim that all immigration restrictions are inherently racist is absurd, and it would be nice if you would stop repeating that, but you won't.
Does this mean Canada, the EU, Australia, and other developed industrial democracies whom we’d do well to emulate are racist because they, like every polity on earth, do not have open borders?
Then, no offense, you do realize how politically unviable your suggestion is right? It’s like saying that we should run on a platform of banning the eating of animals, it’s definitely the moral position in a perfect world but it’s completely infeasible in the world we actually live in, extremely unpopular, and no one would ever support anyone running on that.
So are you ok with losing every election forever just so that we can aim for that goal that is realistically impossible to achieve? Because you said “any law restricting immigration is inherently racist and therefore must be wholeheartedly opposed by any competent Democrat.” That seems to imply that you both recognize we can’t win if we support the policies you’re advocating and that we should support them anyways.
I see where you're coming from, but calling to "reform ICE" is a pretty weak rallying cry against an agency that has masked men kidnap and detain people. I don't think people see cops the same way they see ICE.
'Replace ICE' just leads people to another Q of what you really replace it with? If you are just bringing back INS you are not really doing anything but changing the name. I think 'Reform' is more impactful and easier for folks to understand.
I think framing it as 'Reform ICE' meaning bring it back to where it was under Obama would resonate the best.
Making ICE what it was under Obama doesn't really fix the problem though. The next Republican president could just weaponize ICE again to trample all over people's rights.
Big problem there is the changes made weren't permanent ones.
CBP is able to operate, largely with impunity, within 100 miles of the US border, land or sea. They can effectively operate in the majority of the US by population the US with little constitutional recourse: 2/3 of the country lives in this zone.
Change the law so that they're only able to operate within a much shorter distance. Make it 1000 feet of land border crossings and make the coastal border no longer the spot where the ocean meets land, but where the US international border is defined out at sea (generally, 12 miles out).
Make a change like that — legislatively, not by executive order — and the next republican president loses a lot of their ability to weaponize CBP. That isn't a complete solution by itself but it'd go a long way.
Also, I just checked and the current DHS budget is $112.4 billion. Cutting it out could go a long way in cutting the deficit and solving the debt problem over time.
I don’t want to get rid of border control, the agency needs to be replaced and rebuilt imo. I was against Biden’s border policies and believe it cost us a lot of votes. I also wrote it in a hyperbolic sense. Defund the police made no sense as well as open borders.
I find the NYT version much more plausible. Early 20s beating mid-late 20s and early 30s didn't pass the sniff test, regardless of how much Mamdani juiced the youth vote.
If the Medicaid cuts do come to pass I hope Dems in blue state don't do the GOP a favor and enact the cuts after the midterms as the bill intends. Make them effective next year so voters know exactly who cut their care before they vote. Hopefully Hochul & Newsom have the fortitude to do this.
"Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!
"And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth."
"If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day. Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a voice."
Good. He should create one conservative Ralph Nader for every seat if he really wants to hurt the GOP and maybe even run a Ross Perot style candidate in the presidential election.
The timing of these two retirements is striking. I am of two minds about Thom Tillis’ and Don Bacon’s announcements. On the one hand this increases Democrats’ chances of flipping the House, and even positions us for a longshot at retaking control of the Senate as well. However, these retirements also underscore the alarming degree to which Donald J. Trump wholly and completely owns the MAGA-Republican Party – a party that now has neither room nor tolerance for even the mildest form of dissent.
In the near term, *anything* that weakens the Republican Party's (read: Trump's) grip on power is a good thing.
The Republican party is gone now and with or without Trump, it's a threat to democracy, the economy and fundamental American rights and values. It's all on the Democratic party now. One half of America will gleefully burn the country down out of the perceived wrongs that we've done to them, spite, hatred and for the vindicative feeling of schadenfreude rather than working to make our democracy work for everyone. Half of us will sleepwalk to fascism if Democrats don't win.
It's doesn't make any difference if Paxton wins or Cornyn wins, it only makes a difference if a Democrat wins. Both of them have 100% pro Trump voting records, there is only a difference in how openly they practice their cruelty and bigotry. The cruelty is the point and they want to hurt the right people.
Gone? What do you mean by gone? In the last 30 years it has controlled the White House and congress at the same time 10 years while the Democrats have controlled it 4. It isn’t going anywhere.
I’m think they meant “gone” as in they stopped being interested in democracy. Obviously they are not going anywhere.
Yes in terms of democracy and principles.
I wonder, should the NC Senate seat flip next year, whether Ted Budd is as vulnerable in 2028.
One at a time, please.
I'm a NC Democrat who wants TWO Democratic Senators representing the Tar Heel State, not two bootlicking Republicans.
That hasn't happened since 1972. It's high time!
The state is getting bluer and bluer with each cycle. It probably would flip much earlier a la Virginia if it wasn't gerrymandered to hell and back starting with the 2010 census and NC GOP capturing control of the state legislature at the same time.
How? Would more Democrats move to the state if it had a Democratic trifecta?
Probably.
The top three states that are seeing people move to NC have been Virginia, Florida and South Carolina in that order, not exactly deep blue states. (New York and California make it #4 and #5.) People are moving to North Carolina because of the tech and science hubs, better weather, lower cost of living and friendly business environment.
I do think if SCONC flips back to Dem control, get fairer state legislative lines drawn and Dems score a state trifecta, there's going to be a LOT of progressive laws pushed through like Virginia and Minnesota Democrats did. And hopefully the pay-to-play back dealing by GOP lobbyists gets stopped and some long-deserved convictions get handed out.
All that being said, we shouldn't expect the first statewide Democratic winners at the federal level in NC to be Vermont style "progressives." North Carolina remains a strongly pro business state and that's probably not changing anytime soon.
Of course. But let's win in '26 first.
Folks on this board will still think about prospective candidates in future elections, and they can do both at the same time.
For some reason I misread that as Ted Bundy...
Just as awful though.
When all is said and done, Ted Budd & Co will most assuredly be responsible for far more American deaths!
This bill will kill more people than Ted Bundy could have ever dreamed of.
That's "former Dan Evans campaign staffer Ted Bundy" to you
With the benefit of hindsight, he was vulnerable in 2022.
2022 was a R-favorable midterm. The reason he won in 2022 (along with Republicans flipping control of the SCONC) was crappy state D party leadership. Had Anderson Clayton taken control in 2022, she would've devoted plenty of party resources to help Cheri Beasley out (and would've ditched the strategists telling her to play up her bipartisan appeal). And holding control of SCONC would've been a top priority for her.
Bobbie Richardson was a TERRIBLE state party leader. Thanks to Anderson Clayton, we're winning more statewide races.
It’ll probably be competitive no matter what happens this year. But if we flip the other seat that might be an incentive for another of the NC Dems’ star players to run.
Such as Rachel Hunt. Her father tried to run for the US Senate in 1984 against Jesse Helms. Sadly it was not to be.
Jim Hunt was dragged down in 1984 in large part by presidential coattails. The WH race in the state in 2028 will probably be competitive and might even help the Dem if it gets to a 2008 type “turn the page” environment.
I was more thinking Jeff Jackson. Hunt gives me more 2032 Governor vibes.
Just as long as we have a good candidate going for us for 2028 AG. I know Jackson still has federal ambitions.
I think if Cooper runs and flips the seat, Jeff Jackson will probably challenge Budd in 2028.
Works for me. Democrats need all the seats possible in the Senate should the next POTUS after Trump be in the Democratic Party.
https://archive.ph/YUx76
Colin Allred to enter Texas race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas#Democratic_primary
I would love to see Talarico run instead of Allred.
Either of them losing in a bitter primary would be a loss for us in terms of talent as well as money. The Lt. Gov is a powerful position in Texas and Dan Patrick is no Greg Abbott, he can run for that too.
He should be on the ticket running for some position. He could change the electorate. Talarico won a couple of competitive state elections before his seat was gerrymandered so it's not like he is too "woke".
If Talarico is really analogous to socialist Mamdani, he couldn't win statewide in Texas, so in what respect are you making the analogy?
In terms of tiktok and social media savviness, and youth popularity. He is also more progressive than Allred.
I am so happy that Tillis is sayonara after this year. I was really looking forward to voting him out, but either way, he's out come January 2027. Now to fill his seat with a Democrat.
I noticed that Roy Cooper is scheduled to be at the NC Dems Unity dinner on July 26th with SCONC Justice Anita Earls and IL governor Pritzker. That would probably be the time he announces the bid (or says no).
notice that both have spoken against policies that would hurt their constituents but didn’t do backroom carve out deals.
it’s giving adam kinzinger and joe walsh vibes.
I'm sure they tried which is why he's just packing his bags and saying 'adios.' Seems like the White House and hardliners are just decided they'd railroad what they wanted and the moderates would cave, which is a pretty good bet.
It's a bet with tons of precedent. So-called moderate republicans folding under pressure from the further right wing of the party is an old story.
Their senate majority is also just barely big enough to make this easier on them. If Casey had held on last year it would have been a much tougher balancing act for Thune.
Ugh, I'm *still* pissed about Casey losing.
Had he over-performed Harris by just half the margin that Sherrod Brown managed in Ohio, he would have broken 50%.
Way downballot - The election for District 8 of the city council in Pasadena, Texas, just outside Houston, ended with a 272-272 tie between incumbent Bianca Valerio and Bruce Leamon, who previously served on the council. The winner will be determined today by the flip of a coin.
Roy Cooper will about 70 years old by the time he get elected at a time when the party is hungry for young leaders, i think democrat's should take a risk with nominating Nickel he ran a good campaign in 2022 in will probably be a better incumbent 2032 when he will run for reelection when he will be 56 compared to cooper which will be 76 and may retire.
I don't know why but both online leftists and centrists seem to hate Nickel?
Him as in Nickel or him as in Cooper?
It's Nickel. Whomever is the GOP nominee will paint Nickel as a socialist carpetbagger who doesn't know what North Carolinians want. Way easier to paint him.
But if Cooper is the nominee, good luck trying to get anything to stick to him. He's won several tough statewide races and some squishy Rs will probably vote for him again.
If Cooper runs, I prefer him. He’s won statewide. Twice. 76 is not too old to run for a second term.
Try SIX times. He was also AG from 2001 to 2017.
To be fair, his margins of victory have gotten smaller since the 2000s due to increased polarization. With that being said, Cooper is, by far, the best candidate we can run. With Tillis retiring, Cooper entering the race would instantly make this race Lean D.
I will never say anything is guaranteed in politics, but Cooper winning NC-Sen if he runs regardless of his GOP opponent is pretty close to it. He wouldn’t win by much because of the intense polarization of this time period in general (and specifically the state of North Carolina), but he’s won not once, but twice with Trump winning the state on the same ballot. I’d even say it would be Lean D with him running there, he’s that strong of a candidate (not by margin, but win probability).
He can have a term or two holding the seat for us in a currently tough state to win federally as a career capstone, then he can move on to the private life. 6-12 years is an eternity in politics and population growth, so NC could theoretically move the state light blue by then at which point a Democrat can hypothetically replace him easier then now (though given 2024 results I’m not predicting anything about trends from now until then, unexpected things happen and coalitions shift from election to election).
I’d rather have the strongest candidate run in a very finicky and split ticket state than a 1 term congressman.
No one D or R is "pretty close to guaranteed to win" a Senate race in NC. The state is just too competitive. You could maybe talk me into Tilt D rating in an open seat race if Cooper is the nominee but, really it's a toss up. I do agree with you that having him, as our strongest candidate, win and hold the seat for a term is the path here.
PA-03: Dwight Evans retiring.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/30/congress/dwight-evans-retirement-00432677
Win-win. No chance of the seat flipping red, and we get someone younger or at least healthier who will be there when needed.
These are exactly the seats where we should be encouraging an exodus
He had suffered a stroke so it’s not all surprising
Valid reason to retire for any politician.
I mean, where do we begin? It's a D+40 super dark, deep blue district.
Nuff said.
I would expect a huge Democratic primary field in this race.
Finally
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/27/us/ice-arrests-trump.html
https://www.reddit.com/r/50501veterans/comments/1lnul6x/bbb_would_increase_ice_budget_by_167_billion_are/
The centrist Democratic consultant class may have instructed Dem pols to not even speak a word about it but the BBB effectively turns America into an ICE-led police state by turbocharging it with an additional 170 billion dollars of funding with additional powers, up from the current 35-40 billion dollar budget.
Breaking up the rogue agency and subsuming it under other departments or replacing it with a more accountable alternative is going to be the compromise position in 4 years. There are going to be many protests when the real "mass deportations" begin. There needs to be a Project 2029 guide to mass fire the white nats and other kinds of ultra-nativists in the agency and clean it up.
We also need a plan for 2027, assuming we gain the house and/or senate next year. There's a lot of room to end or fix the worst abuses with threats of government shutdown. Not going to hold my breath on Schumer being any help there. Wouldn't be surprised if he made things worse for us. But we should expect Jeffries to be at least willing to get us something out of that scenario. And the party should be planning accordingly to make the most of that.
I'm worried that "Abolish ICE" will fail at the ballot box through media coverage and the fact that as a slogan it's too reminiscent of "Defund the police." We need to be careful and find phrasing that enables us to take advantage of the backlash. I'm not going to pretend I'm good enough with words to find that better phrasing but I'm sure something exists.
Problem is with the "Abolish ICE" agenda, it would be extremely hard to implement unless you have the Democratic Party occupying Congress and the White House. Once this happens, then it's easier to have this discussion.
Democrats would also need to have a plan to override Trump's veto. I believe a 2/3 vote is needed in this case but that would depend on how much of Congress the Democratic Party has in the majority should it win both chambers.
For getting some things out of holding at least one chamber of congress there's no real need to worry about overriding veto. Force a government shutdown over things that are media friendly and we'll win eventually. Shutdowns are a test over who worries about suffering more damage from insisting on what they want.
That limits the scope of what we can be asking for (terminating ICE is outside of that scope), otherwise it'll make us look bad to the electorate and we'll lose that fight. Which is why the party should start planning so the groundwork can be placed down for whatever it is that we will ask for.
If we really want to be smart we'd plan something that can be used as a springboard for our eventual 2028 candidate for president. Ideally also something that can be used by congressional challengers and people all the way down the ballot.
Ok. Makes sense as a strategy.
Project 2029 for Democrats to start when occupying the White House?
Clean up the whole Department of Homeland Security. In fact, I don't see why it's functions can't be transferred over to the Department of Defense and Department of Defense. Homeland security is something DoD can manage and anything immigration and visa related can be managed by DoS.
DHS is a $100+ billion a year mess, especially with ICE being overseen by DHS.
I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment and policy, but please, let’s not shoot ourselves in the face repeatedly again with slogans we love that alienate the middle which Republicans can weaponize effectively against us. Defund the police was a colossal disaster for the party and cost us a ton of winnable seats (Ron Johnson Wisconsin Senate anyone?).
Abolish ICE is exactly the same thing and will turn out exactly the same way. Let’s be smart about this: talk about reforming ICE, like we should have done with the police. Reforming the bad within an agency is much more politically acceptable than getting rid of an essential service to keep people safe. And yes, I’m well aware of the differences between ICE and police, but the average voter doesn’t.
I can see it in ads already “First, Democrats wanted to get rid of cops, now Democrats want to get rid of border patrol agents”. Copy/paste into every GOP campaign and watch as we lose badly in races we should be winning easily.
Especially when border control has been a substantial weakness for us for years
There's no need for any sort of immigration enforcement whatsoever-candidates in our party who don't run on straight up open borders should be punted to the curb.
Uh, no. Regardless of their merit, there are laws and regulations regarding immigration that people (including many immigrants themselves) expect to be followed and enforced.
And while Trump's excesses and his and others' bigotry on the subject may be creating a window for Democrats on the issue, urging full open borders with no penalties for violating the laws (and "punting to the curb" any Dems who disagree) is a sure way to slam that window shut.
And I'm straight up saying that any law restricting immigration is inherently racist and therefore must be wholeheartedly opposed by any competent Democrat.
And you're straight-up wrong. Would you say laws restricting immigration to 150,000 people a year without quotas for any country are racist?
I would not support any immigration restrictions-so yes.
Whether you would support it or not has nothing to do with whether it's racist. I, too, would want to take all comers except for criminals, insane people and extremists, but your claim that all immigration restrictions are inherently racist is absurd, and it would be nice if you would stop repeating that, but you won't.
That’s just political suicide, and also bad policy.
Does this mean Canada, the EU, Australia, and other developed industrial democracies whom we’d do well to emulate are racist because they, like every polity on earth, do not have open borders?
If we define Open Borders in the strictest possible terms-as I am doing, then yes.
Then, no offense, you do realize how politically unviable your suggestion is right? It’s like saying that we should run on a platform of banning the eating of animals, it’s definitely the moral position in a perfect world but it’s completely infeasible in the world we actually live in, extremely unpopular, and no one would ever support anyone running on that.
I do-it doesn't mean it isn't a goal we should be aiming for.
So are you ok with losing every election forever just so that we can aim for that goal that is realistically impossible to achieve? Because you said “any law restricting immigration is inherently racist and therefore must be wholeheartedly opposed by any competent Democrat.” That seems to imply that you both recognize we can’t win if we support the policies you’re advocating and that we should support them anyways.
This is, and I’m trying to be polite, one of the most insane takes I’ve seen in quite some time
This is so comically insane that I am not sure whether this is sarcasm or serious talk.
I see where you're coming from, but calling to "reform ICE" is a pretty weak rallying cry against an agency that has masked men kidnap and detain people. I don't think people see cops the same way they see ICE.
“Fix ICE” has a stronger feeling to it. Someone witty could make a frozen water ice related pun to really swell the whole thing.
“Fix” helps make the case for us. Point out all the ways republicans are abusing ICE to make us less safe, less American as a society.
“Abolish” is too linguistically close to prior bad messaging.
“Replace ICE”, ICE is irredeemable. A new agency with more accountability, less nazi adjacent officers and lesser post-9/11 style powers.
'Replace ICE' just leads people to another Q of what you really replace it with? If you are just bringing back INS you are not really doing anything but changing the name. I think 'Reform' is more impactful and easier for folks to understand.
I think framing it as 'Reform ICE' meaning bring it back to where it was under Obama would resonate the best.
Making ICE what it was under Obama doesn't really fix the problem though. The next Republican president could just weaponize ICE again to trample all over people's rights.
Big problem there is the changes made weren't permanent ones.
CBP is able to operate, largely with impunity, within 100 miles of the US border, land or sea. They can effectively operate in the majority of the US by population the US with little constitutional recourse: 2/3 of the country lives in this zone.
Change the law so that they're only able to operate within a much shorter distance. Make it 1000 feet of land border crossings and make the coastal border no longer the spot where the ocean meets land, but where the US international border is defined out at sea (generally, 12 miles out).
Make a change like that — legislatively, not by executive order — and the next republican president loses a lot of their ability to weaponize CBP. That isn't a complete solution by itself but it'd go a long way.
Why would we need a new agency?
We actually never needed any of the G.W. Bush-era new agencies, but it might be difficult to campaign on getting rid of all of them.
Agreed.
Also, I just checked and the current DHS budget is $112.4 billion. Cutting it out could go a long way in cutting the deficit and solving the debt problem over time.
Or we don't run on it at all. We just do it once we're in power...
I don’t want to get rid of border control, the agency needs to be replaced and rebuilt imo. I was against Biden’s border policies and believe it cost us a lot of votes. I also wrote it in a hyperbolic sense. Defund the police made no sense as well as open borders.
Yes! Let's just dramatically reduce the size and scope of ICE without handing Republicans any more anvils to hang around our necks...
In a rarity that will be unlikely to be repeated, 18-34 year old voters had the highest turnout in the NYC primary:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DLfYLLsufSy/?igsh=MWZyOGl2bHdhY2JuYw==
Ranked-choice tabulations should be tomorrow.
If we know what's good for us we'd do everything we can to replicate that kind of turnout everywhere.
That contracts a similar chart from a NYT article.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3VS34/2/?plain=1
Same general shape, but not as dramatic.
Both of them seem to be using the same underlying data, since the color scheme and age ranges are the same, so I'm not sure why the inconsistency.
I find the NYT version much more plausible. Early 20s beating mid-late 20s and early 30s didn't pass the sniff test, regardless of how much Mamdani juiced the youth vote.
This is off topic, but can you comment on whether anyone Dem can unseat Marjorie Taylor Greene?
It's not off-topic, and no, no Democrat can unseat her in that district.
No, it’s Trump +37. The only remotely blue is area is the part in Cobb county, the rest of district is probably Trump +45 or more
Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district is not the reddest in the country but it’s still very much red.
Two problems.
1) Most of the constituents are blue collar.
2) 70% of the district’s demographics are white
It’s hard to put these two demographics together and be able to get a viable way for a Democratic challenger to unseat MTG.
R poll (Cygnal) Ossoff up by 10 in GA Senate https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1939762024038150626
Good start
Herschel Walker, now’s your chance at a 2nd shot at the Senate!
Received fund raising text from Shawn Harris but only want to support candidates who have a real chance.
I texted Stop as fast as I could when I received that
If the Medicaid cuts do come to pass I hope Dems in blue state don't do the GOP a favor and enact the cuts after the midterms as the bill intends. Make them effective next year so voters know exactly who cut their care before they vote. Hopefully Hochul & Newsom have the fortitude to do this.
You don't have Medicaid, I assume.
GOOD NEWS FROM Mr. MUSK
"Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!
"And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth."
https://nitter.poast.org/elonmusk/status/1939776586989150590#m
"If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day. Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a voice."
https://nitter.poast.org/elonmusk/status/1939806847504105683#m
Please proceed, Mr Musk.
What a loose cannon! Just insane!
Works for me as long as the cannon is aimed at the guys in red.
This also may the best example this century of 'the enemy of my enemy is still an asshole'.
Indeed, Musk is still a dangerous enemy.
Incoherent. If he’s forming a new party, why does he care about primary challenges
Who cares whether Musk is incoherent? The key thing is that his wrath and his vast resources are aimed at the Republican Party and its incumbents!
We can always use Musk’s help.
He can start in TX, where he moved Tesla to in the first place. The TX-SEN race could benefit.
I want as many Republicans defeated for re-election as possible.
As far as I’m concerned, Musk can join Andrew Yang’s Forward Party.
Musk has said he was a moderate before and wants a party that is more in the middle.
Sure, a party in the middle – just like AfD is in German politics.
In other words, Musk is not really thinking carefully and has absolutely ZERO idea what being a moderate actually means.
Good. He should create one conservative Ralph Nader for every seat if he really wants to hurt the GOP and maybe even run a Ross Perot style candidate in the presidential election.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/polling-elon-musk-warning-republicans-223000803.html
https://www.vox.com/politics/415876/elon-musk-donald-trump-money-midterms-third-party
Dusty Johnson (SD-AL) is retiring to run for governor
https://www.newscenter1.tv/news/south-dakota/congressman-dusty-johnson-announces-he-will-run-for-governor-job
Senator Lisa Murkowski On Being A Moderate In Today’s GOP
She’s not perfect but in being interviewed on CBS, Lisa Murkowski is pretty blunt about today’s GOP.
Remember, she voted against Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court.
https://youtu.be/yhZOmEnODug?feature=shared