Morning Digest: It's independent vs. Republican in Idaho after Democrat drops out

This Senate battle now mirrors Nebraska's, but in an even redder state

Todd Achilles, independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Idaho. (Credit: Todd Achilles Facebook)

Leading Off

ID-Sen

Democrat David Roth announced Tuesday evening that he was ending his campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Jim Risch in Idaho, a move that gives independent Todd Achilles the chance to consolidate support in what remains a challenging race.

Roth, a frequent candidate who won his party’s nomination in May, made his decision after both Achilles’ backers and Roth’s fellow Democrats argued that his departure would help Achilles unseat Risch in this heavily Republican state.

An early June poll from the Bullfinch Group showed Risch with a small 40-36 edge over Achilles in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. The firm, which said its survey was “part of an ongoing regional landscape assessment alongside independent electoral coalitions,” further argued Achilles could win after voters learned more about him.

By contrast, the senator, who is seeking his fourth term at the age of 83, outpaced Roth 50-33 when they were the only two names voters got to choose from. Risch was also secure in a three-way contest, leading Achilles 41-18 with Roth in third place at 15%.

The poll was released around the same time that one of Risch’s previous Democratic opponents argued that Roth could play a key role in defeating the senator if he were to leave the race.

“The path to victory for Army veteran Achilles would be enhanced dramatically with 250,000 unaffiliated Idaho voters during President Donald Trump’s war of choice in Iran and rising consumer prices,” Larry LaRocco, a former congressman who badly lost to Risch in 2008, wrote in an opinion piece for the Idaho Statesman.

LaRocco also pointed to other red states where Democratic leaders have urged their party’s candidates to step aside to give independents a better chance of forming a cross-party coalition.

He highlighted the Senate race in Nebraska, where Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank pledged to support Dan Osborn’s bid to unseat GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts—a pledge she made good on this month when she removed her name from the ballot.

Roth initially resisted LaRocco’s pitch, as well as a subsequent letter from the Ada County Democratic Party saying it would consider backing Achilles if the Democratic nominee didn’t improve his fundraising. However, after Roth ended the month of June with barely more than $1,000 on hand, he finally said he was bowing out on Tuesday night.

But Achilles, whom Roth did not mention in a statement announcing his departure, still isn’t the only candidate on the ballot against Risch. Natalie Fleming, a fellow independent who has generated little attention, and Libertarian nominee Matt Loesby are also running, and their presence could siphon votes that Achilles needs.

Risch, a longtime Gem State politician who briefly served as governor from 2006 to 2007, also retains a massive financial advantage over his main opponent. The senator finished last month with more than $3.5 million banked, while Achilles had just under $200,000 available to spend.

Achilles, however, is pitching himself as a candidate who can unite voters across the political spectrum who are fed up with the status quo.

“As Idahoans, we have seen Jim Risch spend a lifetime pursuing his own power at the expense of the people he is supposed to serve,” he said in a statement following Roth’s exit. “He has supported policies that have driven up the costs of food and gas and gutted the Forest Service to sell our public lands to the highest bidder.”

Achilles, who served in the Army as a tank commander before entering the business world, was a registered Republican until early 2024. That year, though, he changed his affiliation after a Democratic state representative from Boise resigned.

Because Democrats had last held the seat, Republican Gov. Brad Little was required to choose an appointee from a list of three names submitted by Democratic officials. The governor opted for Achilles, who became eligible for consideration after he switched his party registration.

Three months later, the new lawmaker won a competitive primary, then had no trouble winning the general election for one of the state’s few reliably blue legislative seats. However, he wouldn’t remain there long. Achilles announced last summer that he was resigning from office and leaving the Democratic Party to challenge Risch as an independent.

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The Downballot Podcast

Stevens vs. El-Sayed tops major primary night

Primary season is back with a vengeance on Tuesday, with no fewer than five states holding elections—chief among them Michigan. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, we break down the bitter fight between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed as they vie to become the Wolverine State’s Democratic nominee for Senate, but there’s a lot more on the docket.

The list includes a ballot measure to make future ballot measures impossible in Missouri; a GOP effort to turn the Kansas Supreme Court into a partisan rubber stamp; and a House primary in Washington where a Republican is helping the Democrat he beat two years ago.

And speaking of Michigan, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard talk all about its hotly competitive general elections with Curtis Hertel, the chair of the state Democratic Party. Hertel spotlights the GOP candidates for governor and Senate, whose fealty to Donald Trump has taken center stage. He also explains how Democrats can flip several seats in the House and take back control of the state legislature in November.

Senate

TX-Sen

Republicans have exactly $0 reserved for ads to aid Ken Paxton in Texas, according to data from AdImpact provided to the New York Times’ Theodore Schleifer.

Schleifer explains that the lack of financial support for the GOP’s Senate nominee is due chiefly to an impasse between Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC involved in Senate races, and MAGA Inc., the deep-pocketed outfit run by Donald Trump’s inner circle. Both organizations keep hoping the other will provide the millions needed to make a difference in the nation’s second-largest state.

Democrat James Talarico, though, would be just fine if the two groups, as well as any other conservative outfits, keep waiting for someone else to splurge in a state Republicans have long taken for granted.

Talarico finished June with $21.5 million in the bank, more than 12 times as much as the $1.8 million Paxton had available. And while prominent Democratic outside groups have yet to book ad time, megadonor Reid Hoffman has provided $10 million to a super PAC set up to aid Talarico.

Governors

TN-Gov

The once sleepy Republican primary for Tennessee’s open governorship has turned sharply negative, though at least one attack ad has now gotten yanked from the airwaves.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s campaign says that two TV stations have pulled a spot from the American Exceptionalism Institute, a group backing Rep. John Rose in the Aug. 6 contest.

That ad opens with a jingle: “Our pain-killing pills wouldn’t sell, so we paid Sen. Marsha Blackburn to pass our bill.” The spot, which is made to look like a pharmaceutical ad, depicts AI-generated lobbyists with briefcases full of cash. An AI version of Blackburn is later shown smiling in front of the U.S. Capitol as the singer croons, “Marsha Blackburn’s the queen pharma mama who’s ready to sell.”

“Sen. Blackburn has never accepted a bribe to pass legislation, nor has she ever been accused or investigated for allegedly doing so,” Blackburn’s attorney told AEI in a letter demanding it take down the ad.

The letter also charged that the ad violates a new state law requiring a written disclaimer in political ads that feature AI-generated deepfake versions of candidates doing or saying things they didn’t actually do.

Blackburn’s allies are also continuing to attack Rose on the airwaves. Tennessee Freedom Fund, a group backed by the radical anti-tax Club for Growth, recently debuted a commercial calling the “wilting” Rose a “former Democrat.”

Rose, who voted in a trio of Democratic primaries in 2002 and 2004, responded with his own ad saying such attacks prove the primary “has gotten tight.” There’s been no independent polling, though, to indicate whether or not Blackburn is losing altitude after spending the entire race as the undisputed frontrunner.

Mayors & County Leaders

Chicago, IL Mayor

Democrat John Kelly, who has worked as a lobbyist for prominent clients like the Chicago White Sox and the United Center arena, announced Tuesday that he was joining Chicago’s busy race for mayor next year.

“Maybe City Hall needs a lobbyist,” Kelly, who began fundraising last year, told WGN of his decision to challenge Mayor Brandon Johnson. “I think that if the current administration were better at lobbying, we’d get more out of Springfield, because that’s a big part of the mayor’s job.”

Johnson, a Democrat who continues to post weak approval numbers in this loyally blue city, has yet to announce if he wants to keep that job. The mayor’s backers, though, began collecting signatures on Tuesday, the first day candidates were allowed to circulate petitions.

Johnson and his rivals have reason to move swiftly. While contenders have until Oct. 26 to submit 12,500 valid signatures for February’s election, serious campaigns collect far more as a cushion against any challenges.

Two of Johnson’s most prominent opponents, Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza and Rep. Mike Quigley, began petitioning on the first day possible. So did Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, who sounded likely to run last year and told WBEZ’s Fran Spielman this week she’ll campaign no matter who else gets in.

The 78-year-old Pappas, who has served as county treasurer since 1998, also used that interview to slam someone who isn’t yet in the race, but her target wasn’t Johnson. She instead went after Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, who has not yet begun collecting petitions for his long-anticipated campaign for mayor.

“If you want to be mayor of the city of Chicago, your IQ has to be higher than your body temperature,” Pappas said of Giannoulias, whom Spielman says she’s frequently clashed with. “I’m not picking on him. I’m just saying it’s got to be somebody who can handle it.”

Giannoulias, though, may be able to wait longer than his would-be rivals to start gathering signatures. The secretary of state has almost $22 million stockpiled ahead of his uncompetitive reelection contest this fall, money he can use to jumpstart a late effort.

Candidates who are not as well-established, however, don’t have that luxury. The roster of lesser-known contenders includes wealthy businessman Joe Holberg; cardiologist Lisa Nee; Matt Brewer, a member of the Chicago Housing Authority board; and George Cardenas, a former alderman who now serves on the Cook County Board of Review.

All candidates will run on one officially nonpartisan primary ballot on Feb. 23. A runoff would take place on April 6 unless one contender wins a majority of the vote, something that hasn’t happened since 2011.

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen (D): Tavern Research:

  • Abdul El-Sayed: 46, Haley Stevens: 36, Mallory McMorrow: 4. (Early July: 41-38 El-Sayed.)

  • El-Sayed: 48, Stevens: 37. (Early July: 42-41 Stevens.)

  • McMorrow dropped out on July 5 but will remain on the ballot. Each poll asked respondents which of the three candidates on the ballot they preferred before asking about a head-to-head race between Stevens and El-Sayed.

• NC-Sen: Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News:

  • Roy Cooper (D): 53, Michael Whatley (R): 44.

• PA-Gov: Bravo Group for PennLive:

  • Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 53, Stacy Garrity (R): 28.

  • June: 54-29 Shapiro.

• WI-Gov (D): Marquette University Law School:

  • Francesca Hong: 46, Mandela Barnes: 21, David Crowley: 11, Joel Brennan: 4, Kelda Roys: 4.

• FL-08: Public Policy Polling for Jennifer Jenkins:

  • Mike Haridopolos (R-inc): 44, Jenkins (D): 35.

• MI-07 (D): Global Strategy Group for unidentified pro-Matt Maasdam group:

  • William Lawrence: 38, Maasdam: 27, Bridget Brink: 19.

• OH-10: GSG for Kristina Knickerbocker:

  • Mike Turner (R-inc): 45, Knickerbocker (D): 40, Tom McMasters (L): 4.

  • Turner (R-inc): 49, Knickerbocker (D): 42.

Correction: Our Idaho Senate item misidentified the 2008 Democratic Senate nominee. He is Larry LaRocco, not LoRocco.