I think I remember correctly that Nate Silver determined that Bush I's choice of Quayle cost him about 2 points in the 1988 election, and his loss of the VP debate was definitely part of that. That was the biggest effect of a running mate on a vote share of a candidate that he found.
An aside: The current incarnation of Nate Silver is a subsidiary of Peter Thiel, Inc. Which helps explain some of Silver’s really weird modelling, "probability" results, and narrative.
Damn right, it’s terrible. And as you may recall, Peter Thiel was the billionaire who bankrolled JD Vance’s successful senate campaign. Thiel must have been ecstatic when Trump chose him as his VP.
I think I remember correctly that Nate Silver determined that Bush I's choice of Quayle cost him about 2 points in the 1988 election, and his loss of the VP debate was definitely part of that. That was the biggest effect of a running mate on a vote share of a candidate that he found.
An aside: The current incarnation of Nate Silver is a subsidiary of Peter Thiel, Inc. Which helps explain some of Silver’s really weird modelling, "probability" results, and narrative.
I didn't know that. Wow, that's really terrible!
Check out Polymarkets.
Damn right, it’s terrible. And as you may recall, Peter Thiel was the billionaire who bankrolled JD Vance’s successful senate campaign. Thiel must have been ecstatic when Trump chose him as his VP.