We had a short subthread yesterday about the polling in MI in 2020, 22 and 24 and this prompted me to look up exactly how the polling was across the swing states. I looked at the 12 races GOV and SEN races across the 7 states (technically 13 races because of the GA-SEN runoff) and I put the numbers as how much better the R or D did than the 538 polling average:
PA-GOV: D+4.1, PA-SEN: D+5.4, MI-GOV: D+5.7, WI-GOV: D +4.8, WI-SEN: D +2.4, GA-SEN (first round): D + 1.95, runoff: R +1.1, GA-GOV:: D +0.2, NC-SEN: D +1.1, AZ-GOV: D +3.1, AZ-SEN: D +3.4, NV-GOV: D +0.2, NV-SEN: D + 2.2
There's a bit of a geographic split where the Sunbelt numbers are in totality closer than the Midwest numbers, but Arizona throws a wrench into that. The gaps were, generally, smaller in races Republicans won. The main thing is that, with the exception of the GA-SEN runoff the numbers were basically always overly friendly to Republicans (I put basically as a caveat because while technically too friendly for Republicans they nailed the GA and NV Governor's races).
Both sides were stealing(Coke Stevenson was no virgin); Lyndon stole better; the King of South Texas had a machine where like out of 1500 votes Lyndon took like 1490 of them or some such(I believe it's Robert Caro who wrote the books)
We had a short subthread yesterday about the polling in MI in 2020, 22 and 24 and this prompted me to look up exactly how the polling was across the swing states. I looked at the 12 races GOV and SEN races across the 7 states (technically 13 races because of the GA-SEN runoff) and I put the numbers as how much better the R or D did than the 538 polling average:
PA-GOV: D+4.1, PA-SEN: D+5.4, MI-GOV: D+5.7, WI-GOV: D +4.8, WI-SEN: D +2.4, GA-SEN (first round): D + 1.95, runoff: R +1.1, GA-GOV:: D +0.2, NC-SEN: D +1.1, AZ-GOV: D +3.1, AZ-SEN: D +3.4, NV-GOV: D +0.2, NV-SEN: D + 2.2
There's a bit of a geographic split where the Sunbelt numbers are in totality closer than the Midwest numbers, but Arizona throws a wrench into that. The gaps were, generally, smaller in races Republicans won. The main thing is that, with the exception of the GA-SEN runoff the numbers were basically always overly friendly to Republicans (I put basically as a caveat because while technically too friendly for Republicans they nailed the GA and NV Governor's races).
Lyndon Johnson won the 1948 Democratic primary by 87 votes if I recall.
Was that a real win or a rig?
I donтАЩt know.
Both sides were stealing(Coke Stevenson was no virgin); Lyndon stole better; the King of South Texas had a machine where like out of 1500 votes Lyndon took like 1490 of them or some such(I believe it's Robert Caro who wrote the books)