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ArcticStones's avatar

Any chance Iowa’s Electoral Votes are close to being in play? What happens if high enthusiasm gives, say, a five-percent higher turnout rate for Democrats, democracy-defending Independents and patriotic Republicans?

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Mark's avatar

Only in the sense that "there's always a chance". My sense is that any scenario where Trump wins Iowa by less than double-digits means a 300+ electoral vote night for Harris.

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sacman701's avatar

Trump won Iowa by 8 in 2020. I could see him winning by 9 and narrowly winning the electoral college. I agree with your broader point that if Iowa's in play, the electoral college isn't.

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ArcticStones's avatar

I hope you are right, Mark. I’m extremely doubtful that Trump wins Iowa by 10% or more. If that makes 300+ the likely EC result, I’ll be immensely relieved. Kamala Harris needs a victory that is well beyond what I call the MoS – the "Margin of Steal".

America simply cannot afford to have 2024 be an election that’s decided by a few close races, litigation that’s kicked up to the corrupt Leonard Leo-led SCOTUS, or thrown to the House of Representatives.

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Jonathan's avatar

I agree with Mark; oh noesssss; dogs and cats living together; mass hysteria !!!

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