Elections have consequences – and in 2024, might one of these consequences be that a handful of Republicans suddenly discover or grow a spine? I realize this might be hugely overoptimistic, but there are some initial hopeful signs from Senator Susan Collins, of all people. She is loudly insisting that the Senate do the vetting and invest…
Elections have consequences – and in 2024, might one of these consequences be that a handful of Republicans suddenly discover or grow a spine? I realize this might be hugely overoptimistic, but there are some initial hopeful signs from Senator Susan Collins, of all people. She is loudly insisting that the Senate do the vetting and investigation of Cabinet picks that Team Trump has failed to do.
Collins' shtick is that she makes noises about being moderate when they don't matter, and then goes along with the republican caucus at every moment that it does matter.
Saying that they need to vet nominees is easy noise to make. Is she going to be a pain in the ass to Thune if it doesn't happen? She has options to delay and slow things, even if she couldn't outright stop it on her own. Unlikely that she will.
Unless somebody surprises her in a close vote and she’d have to actually go back and change her vote to in order to throw it to the GOP. Thanks again for that, Johnny Boy.
Well, and assuming the results of PA-SEN don't change, she's also making this noise from a position where she knows her vote doesn't actually matter. They would still have 52 votes (51 if Murkowski goes along).
I think all but maybe 2 of the Trump appointments will sail through; concurrently I don't think there's any chance of the whole Johnson adjournment strategy materializing; absolutely no way he could get over 90% of the conference to go to bat for Matt Gaetz.
The issue is now that if Bob Casey can't come back then 53 seats gives us a huge problem. Republicans then lose 3 members and still have a majority.
That means Murkowski can do her thing because she's not even up in two years. And Collins and Tillis -our two biggest targets in 2026- can be given a pass to break ranks when necessary and they can still confirm wackos to positions and vote for bad legislation without repercussions.
We would have been in a great position to attack them had we only had 52 seats.
Being able to do what they want is both a blessing and a curse. They have little ability now to stop themselves from doing something incredibly stupid.
I think while it is true that most Republicans will kowtow to Trump, either outta fear or for some advantage, I doubt that many will just 100% kneel to him aside from the most blindly loyal sycophants. You gotta remember at the end of the day, reelection impending aside, Collins and many others still strongly value their influence as senators - and a swing vote at that. Collins is not about to just make herself politically irrelevant just to appease Trump for picks that are so blatantly atrocious, even for many conservatives. Everyone in Congress knows that Trump's on a timer, and whether it be his declining health or the impending midterms, his time and influence will wane. For a swing state vote like Collins, its to her benefit to exert as much leverage with Trump as possible and being a doormat does the total opposite.
I absolutely agree with most of your analysis. Specifically, I do not think the Senate will recess on Hair Furore’s request, just so he can push through his most extreme and unqualified appointments. Nor will the House do so, allowing Trump to order the Senate too to recess or adjourn. With such a narrow advantage, Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford to lose even three or four Republican votes – and surely there will be at least a handful resisting the White House’s power grab.
That said, given that Republicans will have a 53–47 majority (after Vance is replaced), I don’t think the Senate will reject terribly many of Trump’s unqualified extremist nominations, which is a very long list!
The math has seemingly changed dramatically on NBC's election tracker page today. Though the tracker says there are only 17k outstanding votes left, the map of outstanding ballots shows a far different map with more than twice as many votes. What caused this who knows, but Philadelphia county according to this map alone is the lion's share with 32k votes, with the next biggest Berks county at a mere 6.5k. If Casey wins just 55% of that Philadelphia county vote share, that alone puts him over the top, and that's a very conservative estimate of what he will win. It seems that despite the current numbers, the race is far from over.
Elections have consequences – and in 2024, might one of these consequences be that a handful of Republicans suddenly discover or grow a spine? I realize this might be hugely overoptimistic, but there are some initial hopeful signs from Senator Susan Collins, of all people. She is loudly insisting that the Senate do the vetting and investigation of Cabinet picks that Team Trump has failed to do.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/20/collins-trump-health-appointees-extensive-vetting-senate
I think Donald Trump could shoot Susan Collins in the face and she'd still end up backing him 98%, assuming she survived.
As bemused yet horrified as we'd be, I definitely hope we don't find out.
And he might shoot her in the face.....newly invented Presidential immunity from crimes and all.
Well I think he’s learned a lesson from this…
Collins' shtick is that she makes noises about being moderate when they don't matter, and then goes along with the republican caucus at every moment that it does matter.
Saying that they need to vet nominees is easy noise to make. Is she going to be a pain in the ass to Thune if it doesn't happen? She has options to delay and slow things, even if she couldn't outright stop it on her own. Unlikely that she will.
Precisely. She will go against the guys that like 15 other Republicans wont vote for or like one other GOPer would vote against.
She wont be the tie breaking vote against the GOP on anything.
Unless somebody surprises her in a close vote and she’d have to actually go back and change her vote to in order to throw it to the GOP. Thanks again for that, Johnny Boy.
Well, and assuming the results of PA-SEN don't change, she's also making this noise from a position where she knows her vote doesn't actually matter. They would still have 52 votes (51 if Murkowski goes along).
PA-SEN is over - margin is bigger than the number of votes left to count, and way too big for a recount to change.
I think all but maybe 2 of the Trump appointments will sail through; concurrently I don't think there's any chance of the whole Johnson adjournment strategy materializing; absolutely no way he could get over 90% of the conference to go to bat for Matt Gaetz.
Which two? Gaetz and Gabbard? Or do you think RFK Jr is in more danger?
I think Gaetz is toast and number 2 is either Gabbard or RFK; depends on what intelligence briefings divulge about Gabbard IMO.
Ideally Hegesmith would be in trouble too but I'll be shocked if he doesn't get through.
Looks like Trumpworld is feeling down on him based on the SA allegation
Rfk, gabbarr, hegseth if they lose get shifted to non confirmed roles in White House.
I hope Tulsi is the 1, if they only say no to 1. Easily the most dangerous, and I say that as someone who despises RFK even more than Trump.
But a traitor getting that level of security clearance...
The really sad part is that none of the nominees' scandals are as bad as the President-elect's.
The issue is now that if Bob Casey can't come back then 53 seats gives us a huge problem. Republicans then lose 3 members and still have a majority.
That means Murkowski can do her thing because she's not even up in two years. And Collins and Tillis -our two biggest targets in 2026- can be given a pass to break ranks when necessary and they can still confirm wackos to positions and vote for bad legislation without repercussions.
We would have been in a great position to attack them had we only had 52 seats.
Being able to do what they want is both a blessing and a curse. They have little ability now to stop themselves from doing something incredibly stupid.
I think while it is true that most Republicans will kowtow to Trump, either outta fear or for some advantage, I doubt that many will just 100% kneel to him aside from the most blindly loyal sycophants. You gotta remember at the end of the day, reelection impending aside, Collins and many others still strongly value their influence as senators - and a swing vote at that. Collins is not about to just make herself politically irrelevant just to appease Trump for picks that are so blatantly atrocious, even for many conservatives. Everyone in Congress knows that Trump's on a timer, and whether it be his declining health or the impending midterms, his time and influence will wane. For a swing state vote like Collins, its to her benefit to exert as much leverage with Trump as possible and being a doormat does the total opposite.
I absolutely agree with most of your analysis. Specifically, I do not think the Senate will recess on Hair Furore’s request, just so he can push through his most extreme and unqualified appointments. Nor will the House do so, allowing Trump to order the Senate too to recess or adjourn. With such a narrow advantage, Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford to lose even three or four Republican votes – and surely there will be at least a handful resisting the White House’s power grab.
That said, given that Republicans will have a 53–47 majority (after Vance is replaced), I don’t think the Senate will reject terribly many of Trump’s unqualified extremist nominations, which is a very long list!
The math has seemingly changed dramatically on NBC's election tracker page today. Though the tracker says there are only 17k outstanding votes left, the map of outstanding ballots shows a far different map with more than twice as many votes. What caused this who knows, but Philadelphia county according to this map alone is the lion's share with 32k votes, with the next biggest Berks county at a mere 6.5k. If Casey wins just 55% of that Philadelphia county vote share, that alone puts him over the top, and that's a very conservative estimate of what he will win. It seems that despite the current numbers, the race is far from over.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results
Excellent! May I suggest that you post this also to today’s Downballot diary, if you haven’t already done so?
Where would that be? Sorry still not familiar with this website
Follow this link:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-alaskas-top-four-primary