CO-08. Not sure how to feel about Caraveo giving it another go. I was kind of surprised she won in 2022 in the first place but will see who runs in the primary and how they acquit themselves. I'd like it if Manny Rutinel had a little more electoral experience. It may be that 2026 is a terrible year for Rs and Evans is doomed either way but another Caraveo run makes me nervous at least at the start.
I don’t think that’s much of a negative. With ticket-splitting becoming a relic, this should be more of an expectation than a sign that they’re not a good candidate. And she only had one cycle to build up any sort of incumbency advantage which is hard to do bc not enough ticket-splitting.
Reps. Craig and Davids have a done great job at insulating themselves but they first got elected in 2018.
Her electoral history is most of it. She underperformed the top of the ticket in 22 and just matched it in 2024 winning 48.4 and 48.2% each time (Harris got 47.7 in the district). Meanwhile Adam Frisch and Trisha Calvarese way out ran Harris in 24 so I don't buy this idea that it's impossible to do so. I think her stupid vote on immigration condemning Harris was well stupid (https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/07/30/caraveo-criticized-harris-immigration). You can distance yourself on immigration without jumping on an R resolution condemning Harris as VP. Her work in the legislature on thc products showed a tone deafness to young voters and businesses in her district. She can still win even with a not great campaign because the 8th is a marginal district that would be the first to fall in any kind of Dem year so she may not need to overperform the top of the ticket but I don't see any unique talent/ability with her either and would prefer someone new if they can prove themselves in the primary.
Thanks. I'm not too set in stone on this if she runs a great campaign this cycle and outperforms this time around great I just don't have a lot of trust that will happen based on the last two.
In a district that went from Biden to Trump, is 39% Hispanic and was likely seeing a polling erosion amongst those voters, tacking to the right on immigration as Hispanic voters overall were doing as well made sense.
However, voting against your own party is rarely a winner.
CO-08. Not sure how to feel about Caraveo giving it another go. I was kind of surprised she won in 2022 in the first place but will see who runs in the primary and how they acquit themselves. I'd like it if Manny Rutinel had a little more electoral experience. It may be that 2026 is a terrible year for Rs and Evans is doomed either way but another Caraveo run makes me nervous at least at the start.
I’d like someone who maybe has a better chance to hold that seat going forward. Caraveo barely ran ahead of Harris.
I don’t think that’s much of a negative. With ticket-splitting becoming a relic, this should be more of an expectation than a sign that they’re not a good candidate. And she only had one cycle to build up any sort of incumbency advantage which is hard to do bc not enough ticket-splitting.
Reps. Craig and Davids have a done great job at insulating themselves but they first got elected in 2018.
I take it, you don't think she's a very effective candidate? How come?
Her electoral history in the district
Her electoral history is most of it. She underperformed the top of the ticket in 22 and just matched it in 2024 winning 48.4 and 48.2% each time (Harris got 47.7 in the district). Meanwhile Adam Frisch and Trisha Calvarese way out ran Harris in 24 so I don't buy this idea that it's impossible to do so. I think her stupid vote on immigration condemning Harris was well stupid (https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/07/30/caraveo-criticized-harris-immigration). You can distance yourself on immigration without jumping on an R resolution condemning Harris as VP. Her work in the legislature on thc products showed a tone deafness to young voters and businesses in her district. She can still win even with a not great campaign because the 8th is a marginal district that would be the first to fall in any kind of Dem year so she may not need to overperform the top of the ticket but I don't see any unique talent/ability with her either and would prefer someone new if they can prove themselves in the primary.
Thanks for that comprehensive answer.
Thanks. I'm not too set in stone on this if she runs a great campaign this cycle and outperforms this time around great I just don't have a lot of trust that will happen based on the last two.
In a district that went from Biden to Trump, is 39% Hispanic and was likely seeing a polling erosion amongst those voters, tacking to the right on immigration as Hispanic voters overall were doing as well made sense.
However, voting against your own party is rarely a winner.
Maybe Caraveo and Evans will become the next Shea-Porter and Guinta...