164 Comments
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Sep 3
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PPTPW (NST4MSU)'s avatar

Starmer is really bad at being PM. Labour needs to replace him immediately.

JanusIanitos's avatar

Not surprised at all. At least from what I see here in the US, it looks like Labour has given nothing to voters that they could potentially win over with existing coalitions. And they haven't given enough to voters further to the right to cause voter coalitions to change. A classic recipe for disastrous unpopularity.

I don't have a clue what the average person there thinks, but at least online they're nigh-universally pissed off about the Online Safety Act too. Even though that was passed by the prior parliament, they didn't opt to repeal it and now Labour owns it.

Paleo's avatar

Anti-immigrant as well.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

As much as I am not sorry to see their fortunes falling, I doubt it's because they went anti-trans. TERFism is strong across all quadrants of the UK.

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Sep 3
Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Your username checks out.

MPC's avatar

Blocked and reported.

Colby's avatar

What bot/human moron vomited out this nonsense?

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Sep 3
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michaelflutist's avatar

You're not actually complaining about that, are you?

NewYorkTankees's avatar

The most disgusting thing about Duke Cunningham isn't the hot tub, it's that he apparently ate "very well done" filet mignon. They should've dropped the corruption charges and sought the death penalty for that.

YouHaveToVoteForOneOfUS's avatar

Trump is the same way! A former server who worked at one of his casino’s restaurants said he wasn’t happy until his steak could shake on the plate.

Mark's avatar

And then he put ketchup on it I heard.

ArcticStones's avatar

My God, he murdered that filet mignon! Unforgivable.

Mark's avatar

Perhaps some leniency might be in order for Bob Menendez if, on his 250 annual meals out to the steakhouse, he had his medium rare.

Henrik's avatar

As expected, Hinson is in for IA-Sen

MPC's avatar
Sep 3Edited

She voted for the bill like Ernst did. I hope she gets pummeled on it too.

Zero Cool's avatar

That would be great!

Who needs Ernst when you have Hinson in the race?

MPC's avatar

Hinson unfortunately didn't say anything massively tone deaf like Ernst did, ie the "we're all going to die" flap at her disastrous town hall.

bpfish's avatar

Some of that damage has already been done to the Republican brand in general, because it just reminds everyone that many of their policies and views are callous and inhumane. It's part of the zeitgeist of this election season, even with Ernst not running. So I do think Hinson, along with many other Republicans across the country, will lose a few votes because of what Ernst said.

stevk's avatar

Maybe a few, but it's very hard to call this anything other than Lean R, and I'd say its closer to Likely R than it is to Tossup. We should contest it aggressively for sure, but we should be clear-eyed about our chances here.

Zero Cool's avatar

Ernst won re-election by a smaller margin back in 2020 than what she did back in 2014. This was years before her BBB and “we’re all going to die” PR fiasco.

Additionally, in the original IA-GOV gubernatorial race back in 2018, Kim Reynolds beat Democratic Candidate Fred Hubbell by less than 3% points.

This is the first open Senate race in IA since 2014, when the midterms featured really low turnout. Besides Ernst having been elected to the Senate back in 2014, IA had Tom Harkin in the seat since 1985 and Chuck Grassley in his own since 1981.

michaelflutist's avatar

Lean-R makes sense, but if it's likely-R, either Hinson is significantly more popular than Ernst or the polls are getting things wrong, and there's also the huge Democratic trend in Iowa special elections to consider.

Zero Cool's avatar

Yeah, there’s little spinning that can be done by Hinson.

Voters could tie her to Ernst and then Hinson will really have nowhere to hide.

schwortz's avatar

There's little need to even go that far. Just question and call out Hinson on her vote for the Big Bill. It's still gonna be just as unpopular by November 2026 as it is now, if not moreso. You wouldn't even need to drag Ernst, let alone Trump into the attacks yet. Congress itself has been very incompetent and corrupt. BBB will be the millstone around the GOP's necks that will sink their careers.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

At the moment probably a little tougher than Ernst but plenty of room for her to make her own mistakes and as MPC says she is a solid vote for all of the messy policies. Hopefully the primary is messy, It also puts her house seat more into play.

JanusIanitos's avatar

She'll inevitably face a contested primary. I'm not sold on her being stronger than an incumbent, even a weakened one, in and of itself. But I think even in that scenario Hinson has a big added penalty in that she will almost certainly need to dump lots of time and money on winning a primary. Possibly even force her to move to the right to win more of their base over.

That puts republicans at parity with whoever our candidate is, instead of putting us at a net disadvantage.

Tyler Mills's avatar

I don't think Matt Whitaker will be the one to put a scare in Hinson if one comes. The GOP voters that I know well in my state are kind of tired of him. Someone will get Hinson on the record about contraception or limited situations where she would ok with abortion rights, and that will likely thrust some well spoken social conservative into the race.

Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

So her seat is now open, giving us an excellent shot at it.

Mark's avatar

Vowing unwavering allegiance to Trump! Her campaign must think the special election results are low-turnout aberrations.

MPC's avatar

It'd be nice if MO voters could get that constitutional amendment (aka "Respect MO Voters") on the ballot next year to keep the legislature from overturning the will of the voters on initiated statutes like the paid leave and $15/hr minimum wage.

Jay's avatar

We start gathering signatures for that next week. You need to gather a certain number in 6 out of 8 congressional districts, so this redistricting mess could complicate strategy. But I think the campaign will be successful.

MPC's avatar

Oh good. Because if that can get on the ballot (and passed), that means MO voters are sick of Republican overreach.

ArcticStones's avatar

That should really drive Democratic turnout.

michaelflutist's avatar

To an extent, but voters in heavily Republican states in general and Missouri in particular have shown no hesitation to vote for Democratic priorities Republican politicians try to oppose, annul and sabotage at every turn while voting to reelect those same Republican politicians by a landslide. It's maddening, but it very clearly demonstrates the difference between voters voting their interests on issues and their whiteness , exclusionary Christian supremacism, anti-LGBT bigotry, xenophobic or just pure identity in terms of political parties.

JanusIanitos's avatar

Beyond all the forms of bigotry at play, it's also a consequence of voters and the media severing the link between elections and policy. Not severed in actual election consequences of course, but mentally severed in their assessments of how to vote.

Henrik's avatar

That’s a big part of it. Hence why so many Repubs go “I bet Trump will institute better healthcare for us because he’s on our team!”

Like… no? But the team sport mentality makes politics a consumable product, whereas policy is divorced from said product to the average voter

JanusIanitos's avatar

It's also crazy in light of the fact that every time we lose an election (sometimes even when we win) everyone comes out of the woodwork to insist we needed to talk about policy more.

I wish I knew how to re-establish the link between policy and politics in the minds of voters. It would do a lot to help us. Either directly by making democrats do better, or indirectly by making republicans less bad on policy.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

I'm assuming gather petitions for 26 would mean it would be under the current lines? Not sure though.

Jay's avatar

Probably, although state politicians will do everything they can to make this as hard as possible. Wouldn’t be surprised if they try to “reinterpret” rules.

Mark's avatar

At some point, maybe Missouri voters will recognize their cognitive dissonance of continually voting for policies that their chosen elected officials keep twisting themselves into pretzels to cancel democracy over.

PollJunkie's avatar

It's actually not actually cognitive dissonance. According to Osita Nwanevu, the 60% who support legal abortion and gay marriage, the 60% who support paid leave and minimum wage etc are not the same 60% percent of the electorate. They are not the same coalition of voters.

The Republican coalition is made up of fiscal libertarians and social conservatives. Unpopular Republican policies come in a package for their voters.

Mark's avatar

I'm skeptical that on the 2024 minimum wage initiative that there was insufficient overlap for the 58% of Trump voters and the 58% of Yes voters to where cognitive dissonance was not substantially in play. The county and precinct maps don't hint at any deep reservoirs of fiscal libertarian voters who went for Harris and "No" on the $15 minimum wage to offset each other by way of dueling coalitions. Occam's Razor here suggests it's just a matter of Trump's working-class cult of personality winning over hundreds of thousands of converts from people who still connect with the Democrats on bread-and-butter issues so long as party labels aren't attached.....and casting their ballot accordingly.

PollJunkie's avatar

It doesn't really matter if a district has 60 percent of voters supporting both stances. Because the non-Harris "Yes" voters may be from different parts of the Republican coalition.

michaelflutist's avatar

You didn't mention the word "bigots".

PollJunkie's avatar

They are social conservatives and fiscal libertarians both because of reasons.

Mike Johnson's avatar

"What does the president have to do with rising property taxes and higher electricity bills?" lolol that's a good one, Jack Ciattarelli.

ArcticStones's avatar

And on a related note, how much is Jack Ciattarelli paying for his eggs and gas?

ehstronghold's avatar

Scratch Lina Khan off that very long list of candidates being bandied around for Nadler's seat. She told The Bulwark's Tim Miller she is not interested in running for Nadler's seat.

https://bsky.app/profile/thebulwark.com/post/3lxwyoynyis2q

Henrik's avatar

Not surprised.

Honestly, I expected Micah Lasher to consolidate the field pretty quick - he’s got support from both establishment types and he’s very close to Mamdani

alienalias's avatar

I think Lasher could be the Biss of NY-12. There are to many other young, talented, progressives who will want to take the generational shot to run for Congress and won't defer to on trying a run of their own (Huynh, Simmons). Plus heavy AIPAC-backed establishment types (Fine). And various ambitious people of varying levels of seriousness/talent from outside elected office (Abughazaleh, et al). Hopefully they've seen that example, and the first category will do a better job of trying to coordinate and have a better chance at preventing at least the second category from winning. (Not as many avenues/incentive to keep anyone from the third from running, as is obvious since they've the biggest source of the clown car-ification of IL-09).

Edit: This isn't to say I think Lasher (or Biss) will lose, just that I'm less sure of consolidation in NY-12.

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Sep 4
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alienalias's avatar

KatAbu is the favorite of low info progressives, not high info lmao. All the high-info voters think she's a joke.

Techno00's avatar

Damn, I was hoping for her. Ah well.

michaelflutist's avatar

She's great, but is freshman Representative the best way she could effect change? I wouldn't blame her for thinking otherwise.

PollJunkie's avatar

It wouldn't hurt. She could leave the seat for some position in a future populist/progressive admin if that ever happens.

michaelflutist's avatar

No disagreement there.

Mike Johnson's avatar

Feels like she's a lock for a Mamdani admin role - probably more her than any scary DSA stuff that has the NY business elite in knots.

michaelflutist's avatar

That would make a lot of sense. I hope you're right!

michaelflutist's avatar

David and Jeff: Thanks for a great digest, which took a lot of work! Nice bio of Jerry Nadler, one of the really good guys in public service. A couple of reactions to Digest items: Hilda Solis is not as old as you might think, considering that she's been out of Congress for 14 years: 67. Would she get her seniority back? She probably shouldn't, but I don't know how they do things in the House. It's fine for her to serve a term or two, though all things being equal, someone younger who could build up more seniority and might have the possibility of winning higher office later would be more appealing.

About the settlement with ridehailing companies in California:

"Under the deal, Uber and Lyft will see their insurance obligations reduced in exchange for allowing workers to engage in collective bargaining while still being regarded as independent contractors."

So they still presumably get no benefits or sick pay but can bargain for it. If so, that's still an improvement, and the California Legislature deserves our appreciation and congratulations. It's a good post-Labor Day story.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

As far as I remember she would be credited for three of her four terms; i.e. if she was elected in '26 she would be ranked as if she were elected in 2020, I believe.

JanusIanitos's avatar

Brendan has it right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seniority_in_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives

"Seniority is calculated by:

1. Number of total terms served (subtracting one term from the number of non-consecutive terms)

2. Number of consecutive terms served

3. Alphabetically by last name"

michaelflutist's avatar

Another Democrat Runs for Senate in Maine, https://politicalwire.com/2025/09/03/another-democrat-runs-for-senate-in-maine/

"Maine brewery owner Dan Kleban (D) announced in a video that he is mounting a Senate bid"

I like the excerpts at the link because he focuses squarely on Collins and doesn't bash Democrats. It's interesting that we now have an oyster farmer and a brewer running.

michaelflutist's avatar

This kind of flap is very unlikely to make the difference between winning and losing, especially since it was quickly retracted, but it's not good:

https://politicalwire.com/2025/09/03/democratic-senate-hopeful-claims-false-endorsement/

Zero Cool's avatar

No, it’s not good for Haley Stevens for the time being.

However, providing she and her Senate campaign don’t continue making more mistakes, she’ll still have plenty of time. The primary, isn’t until next August.

stevk's avatar

Agreed...this is likely to be a nothing-burger, but maybe presages a lack of campaign discipline....

michaelflutist's avatar

I'd say it indicates that.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

The tweet was deleted, not sure if that's the same as "retracting"

michaelflutist's avatar

Trump may give positions to Adams and Sliwa to give Cuomo a clear shot at Mamdani: https://politicalwire.com/2025/09/03/trump-advisers-have-discussed-a-job-for-eric-adams/

Nothing smelly or corrupt about that (my sarcasm might not be obvious)...but I don't see it working.

JanusIanitos's avatar

Sounds like the type of thing that is viable in theory, but in practice it would work to closely link Cuomo as "Trump's candidate" and make the electorate favor Mamdani more.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Their names can't be taken off the ballot regardless

Avedee Eikew's avatar

It is kind of amazing that Adams, Cuomo and Sliwa have all told NYC voters in some form or another overtly that they would owe Trump.

PollJunkie's avatar

Adams may accept it but isn't Silwa a Never Trumper?

michaelflutist's avatar

From the Wikipedia article about him:

In December 2019, Sliwa declared in an interview that he hated then-President of the United States Donald Trump, calling him a "screwball and a crackpot".[51] In February 2021, weeks after Trump left office, Sliwa switched his registration back to the Republican Party.[52]

Does that make him a never-Trumper?

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Sep 4
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michaelflutist's avatar

Accepting a good job from Trump is not a good idea. He fires everyone.

PollJunkie's avatar

Maybe, Idk actually.

michaelflutist's avatar

Me neither. It's unclear.

Timothy Blevins's avatar

Disgusting. However, Cleaver is 80?!?!?!!! That’s ridiculous no matter what.

RainDog2's avatar

I lived in Cunningham's district when his trial and conviction went down. I was amazed how the conservative local press stood by him through the whole thing. An article expressing shock and outrage that he, like all convicts, had wear shackles on his journey from the courtroom to the prison especially stands out.

PollJunkie's avatar

Jonathan Martin

@jmart

3h

Gwen Graham losing that primary by a few thousand votes in 2018 has a long long tail

Quote

Seung Min Kim

@seungminkim

4h

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (AP) — Florida will work to eliminate all child vaccine mandates in the state, officials say.

Gwen Graham

@GwenGraham

I live with it every single day. In a long line of horrible decisions, this latest move by DeSantis is particularly horrific.

https://x.com/GwenGraham/status/1963290368675357028

:(

Henrik's avatar

Probably the most impactful downballot election in the last decade

FeingoldFan's avatar

I’d say that Ossoff’s election in 2020 is up there too since it determined control of the Senate.

JanusIanitos's avatar

Yeah, Ossoff and Warnock winning simultaneously was the thing that prevented Biden from being a lame duck on day 1.

michaelflutist's avatar

Even measles. If they could, they'd bring smallpox back...

Avedee Eikew's avatar

Anything stopping her from running for something this time? If nothing else maybe the zombie lie that she is a some amazing political talent can die at last.

PollJunkie's avatar

It doesn’t really matter whether she was an exceptional political talent or just an average politician. She already had strong name recognition, the benefit of her father’s goodwill, and the fact that Florida was much bluer at the time. The 2018 midterms were also a massive blue wave nationally. Gillum ultimately lost not because of the political climate, but largely due to corruption allegations and persistent rumors of drug use that broke before the election. For context, Hillary Clinton lost Florida in 2016 by just 1.2 points, and Joe Biden lost it in 2020 by 3.4 points—both significantly narrower margins than Democrats would face in later years.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

It’s not like Florida Democrats are or were adverse to nominating moderates the fact she couldn’t even win a third of them despite having all of those advantages should tell you that average would be a generous description.

PollJunkie's avatar

There were other moderates in the race especially a billionaire with deep pockets who split the vote. And losing a primary doesn't mean you'd not perform well in the general like Mastriano, Lake, Walker etc etc.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

Not even getting a third of the vote despite having "already .. strong name recognition, the benefit of her father’s goodwill," I don't see her doing any better then Sink, Crist or Nelson. Hell Crist was a right wing governor and managed to win the primary four years later without breaking a sweat. The conventional wisdom for years that she would do so much better then Nelson or other Dems in 2018 does not seem to be based in reality.

PollJunkie's avatar

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, a candidate for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, incorrectly claimed in a social media post Monday that she had won the endorsement of Berrien County Commissioner Chokwe Pitchford.

Senate hopeful Stevens wrongly claims endorsement by Berrien Co. official

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/02/senate-hopeful-stevens-wrongly-claims-endorsement-by-county-official/85946119007/

Another bad day for the Stevens campaign.

michaelflutist's avatar

What other bad days has she had?

PPTPW (NST4MSU)'s avatar

Just being generally weird and off putting

PollJunkie's avatar

Weird public interactions, bombed MSNBC interview.

michaelflutist's avatar

I didn't hear it. Well, I'm glad there are other candidates.