Because doing an aggregation of polls like that to predict a win isn't exactly taking into account non-polling data. It may be to a certain degree helpful in aggregating polls but they don't reveal the whole truth.
We have no idea what the election results will be. You'll deserve a lot of kudos if Kunce wins in Missouri, but you have a habit of treating events that have not yet occurred as facts, and that's counter-factual and disturbing.
First off, I am referring to the decision by Decision Desk HQ to announce Harris as having a 47% chance in light of the fact that early voting numbers. Prior to that, I would have not said the prediction is a fail. Same with Trafalgar Group, Gallup, etc. making the argument. What used to be predictions per polling analysis aren’t as useful as they used to be this close to the election and they really don’t make a lot of sense if we already have voting numbers coming in.
I am not predicting Kunce is going to win. I’ve said plenty of weeks ago I believe it’s going to be a Likely Republican race but I also don’t believe it’s going down more in the direction of favoring Democrats than it did before (in fact, I believe Hawley will likely win by 3-4% points). Why you are believing the opposite of what I have said is beyond me but I suggest you revert back to my original arguments. Polls, money and rallies DO matter in the bigger picture of assessing how credible a race is but certainly more information is warranted.
No, I understand you think Hawley will probably win, but most of us, I think, consider a close win by him quite unlikely and would be really happy if that eventuates!
How do you know that's wrong?
Because doing an aggregation of polls like that to predict a win isn't exactly taking into account non-polling data. It may be to a certain degree helpful in aggregating polls but they don't reveal the whole truth.
We have no idea what the election results will be. You'll deserve a lot of kudos if Kunce wins in Missouri, but you have a habit of treating events that have not yet occurred as facts, and that's counter-factual and disturbing.
First off, I am referring to the decision by Decision Desk HQ to announce Harris as having a 47% chance in light of the fact that early voting numbers. Prior to that, I would have not said the prediction is a fail. Same with Trafalgar Group, Gallup, etc. making the argument. What used to be predictions per polling analysis aren’t as useful as they used to be this close to the election and they really don’t make a lot of sense if we already have voting numbers coming in.
I am not predicting Kunce is going to win. I’ve said plenty of weeks ago I believe it’s going to be a Likely Republican race but I also don’t believe it’s going down more in the direction of favoring Democrats than it did before (in fact, I believe Hawley will likely win by 3-4% points). Why you are believing the opposite of what I have said is beyond me but I suggest you revert back to my original arguments. Polls, money and rallies DO matter in the bigger picture of assessing how credible a race is but certainly more information is warranted.
No, I understand you think Hawley will probably win, but most of us, I think, consider a close win by him quite unlikely and would be really happy if that eventuates!