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the lurking ecologist's avatar

Just back from my former home in PR and the governor's race there is brewing up to be very interesting. The PNP (statehood) party candidate, Jenniffer Gonzalez, is narrowly ahead in polls (2%ish) over *not* the PPD (status quo) party, but the PIP (independence) party candidate, Juan Dalmau. Dalmau had forged an alliance with other minor parties and many PNPs who dislike Gonzalez. She offers statehood, corporatism, and conservatism. Only the first item really has any broad appeal in PR. Dalmau has forged his alliance by pledging to solve problems first and worry about status after major issues are fixed. That's an approach lots of people have been hoping for, for decades.

In addition, a new 3rd party (Dignidad) is also pulling votes from the PNP. Their candidate has a track record for fixing things locally, like the municipal water system, but the party is very religiously conservative (antiLGBT, pro-forced birth), so they are also siphoning votes from PNP and socially conservative PPD voters.

Everyone I know there under age 35 is voting for Dalmau as are many over age 35. Even if he loses, if he pulls 30%, it'll be a massive disruption to politics as usual in PR.

Ranked choice voting would really be a good option for PR, because both the PNP and thr PPD have been terrible and corrupt for decades.

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Henrik's avatar

Is PPD not running anybody this year, then?

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

They are running someone. Can't remember his name and that was often the response of the folks I talked to as well. Apparently there was a debate and he couldn't define "estado libre asociado" which is the status quo situation and he's been sinking in the polls ever since.

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Henrik's avatar

Oooooof. You can’t miss that layup and survive in PR politics

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

Jesús Manuel Ortiz is his name.

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ArcticStones's avatar

No second coming for Jesús?

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michaelflutist's avatar

Thanks very much for the report! Is there any likelihood of a credible, non-rigged election result in Puerto Rico, considering this investigative report - https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2024/09/theft-votes-elections-puerto-rico/ - and others covered in https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/10/12/2274548/-Caribbean-Matters-Puerto-Rico-grapples-with-voter-fraud?

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

I was born and raised in Caguas,PR and I think what this report attributes to fraud, is more often attributed to inept government employees. I think we will have a fair election. I’m turning out to vote, and in PR Election Day is a holiday and everything is closed. This is easy to do as we only hold elections every four years.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Election Day as a national holiday – what a brilliant idea! Yet another idea that the USA should adopt from a civilized country.

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

It’s nice. We don’t do early voting etc, and everyone knows go at like 11 am because the lines of elderly are horrendously long before 9 am.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Might be a good idea, but early and absentee voting are probably more important.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Granted, I wouldn’t trade those for making Election Day a holiday, I would want these as well – plus Ranked Choice Voting everywhere.

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

Im not super supportive of ranked choice. I’m voting for Dalmau and wouldn’t consider the other three parties. That being said I wouldn’t oppose it. As far as absentee ballots I’m fairly certain we have those. But Puerto Rico is a communal place and we like Election Day. It’s a time for everyone to come together, talk, and celebrate our culture. Early voting would harm that.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Thanks for giving your take on this. Inept government employees can mess things up, though, don't you think?

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

Of course. Puerto Rico has a strong centralized government, for example, the territory department of education controls all schools. We don’t have local school boards. With the strong centralization from San Juan you see the ineptitude increase the further you get out from it.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

Were you part of the 5000 car caravan for Dalmau last Sunday?

Others on thread...you haven't truly experienced an election until you've lived through one in PR.

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

I was! And J go had her car rally in front of my apartment. I live near the Caguas plaza so I’m at ground zero.

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

Dalmau may win but I wonder about his strength outside of the metro/Caguas. Even in the Metro, Dalmau’s main strength is people under 35 and that’s not a huge voting block in PR. We are also voting on another statehood ballot measure which I will be voting for independence.

At least for me, we gave the US the chance to make it right, 100 years, and they put la Junta in charge. We are suffering, struggling, and at least for my family, none of us believe the US will grant us statehood.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

I spent most of my time in the west part if the island, and otherwise with Utuadeños, so I think Dalmau has strength outside of metro area, though it is true that I didn't hang out much with folks > 40 anywhere.

After experiencing the utter incompetence of acuaductos, prepa, dtop, and the dept of education in PR for 20 years, I thought the junta was a good idea...for about week. By then it was clear that the junta was prioritizing the needs of triple exempt bond holders over the needs of the people.

There are times though that I think 100 or so IRS agents busting tax cheats would be the best thing ever for the PR budget. When my wife and I were there, we made, together, a little over $100k and supposedly were in the top 5% wealthiest families on the island with that income. Since we had a govt paycheck, we couldn't cheat with cash income.

All the PNP statehood referenda are performative though without an act of Congress to recognize results. Pedro Rosello almost got that through. Can't remember if it was Don Young in the house or Hayley Barbour in the Senate that torpedoed it. I think it was Barbour, because MS would have lost its status as poorest state.

Ivan, what's your prediction for the PR Gov election? And Resident Commissioner?

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Ivan Sanchez's avatar

My heart hopes for Dalmau but my gut says J-Go wins but with a very small plurality. You lived here so you know that the two major parties don’t exactly track with mainland parties. J-Go herself isn’t as conservative as a mainland Republican.

PR itself is very homogenous. I’m gay and out and nobody cares as long as my husband and I attend mass every Sunday. Even when they talk about the anti-LGBT stuff here, it’s heavily focused on the T, lesbian and gay men don’t get nearly as much crap even in the smaller towns. So while Project Dignity exists, it struggles to capture Puerto Rican votes. We have evangelicals here, but the concept itself just isn’t popular like it is in the States.

I actually think it’s possible the Resident Commissioner ends up being from the PPD. Pablo Hernández Rivera is running and he’s the grandson of Rafael Hernández Colón, the governor off and on from 77-93.

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